克利夫兰-克里夫斯（CLF）：日本交易传导；下调克利夫兰-克里夫斯评级

2024A2025E2026E780.0738.51,935.43.4x13.8x15.0x5.4x0.78(1.57)(2.09)(0.13)7.6x31.4x16.4x145.5x Christopher LaFemina, CFA * | Equity Analyst(212) 336-7304 | clafemina@jefferies.comAlbert Realini, CPA * | Equity Associate(212) 778-8487 | arealini@jefferies.comThe bottom line in steel is that an approvedtransaction between Nippon and X, moreinvestment from Nippon into the industrythanpreviously anticipated,and the riskthat other foreign steel producers will buildcapacityin the US under the currentadministration to get un-tariffed access to USend-markets negatively affect the outlook forthe sector, especially in the already growingUS flat-rolled steel market. In light of the risks,we downgrade CLF to Hold from Buy.Additional North American Flat-Rolled SheetCapacity (mt)*Excluding potential future investments fromNippon.0.00.51.01.52.02.53.020252026202720282029+STLDXNucorHyundaiOtherSource: Comapny filings, Wood Mackenzie, Jefferies'estimates The Long View: Cleveland-CliffsInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•Steel prices likely to remain well supported over the next 3-5 years.•Cliffs benefits from higher for longer steel pricing.•Cash generation is used to reduce debt and remain strategically active onthe M&A front.Base Case,$6, +1%•A multiyear period of elevated steel prices.•Cliffs operates well and balances capital returnsand M&A.•Our risk-adjusted,EV/EBITDA multiple-basedprice target is $6.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1) GHG EmissionsCliffs is the largest BF-BOF operator in the US, this methoduses iron ore and met coal to produce steel, both of which contribute to global carbon emissions.Company Target(s): 1)Reduce Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions intensity per metric ton of crude steel by30% by 2035,2)Reduce material upstream Scope 3 GHG emissions intensity per metric ton of crude steelby 20% by 2035,3)A long-term target aligned with the Paris Agreement's 1.5 degrees Celsius scenarioto reduce Scope 1, 2 and material upstream 3 emissions intensity per metric ton of crude steel to nearnet zero by 2050.Questions to Management:1)Do you think it is feasible for all producing furnaces to stop using coal bythe year 2050?2)What is the company doing to ensure mine sites are operated in an environmentallysensitive manner?3)Can you discuss labor policies at mine locations and how they have improved overthe years?ESG Sector Deep Dive: Metals & MiningPlease see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$10, +68%•Steel prices average 15% higher on averagethan we are forecasting in the coming years.•Cliffs valuation benefits as steel pricing stayshigherfor longer,and BF-BOF operatorsvaluation discount narrows.•Our risk-adjusted, EV/EBITDA multiple basedprice target is $10. Risk/Reward - 12 Month View252015105020252024Downside Scenario,$4, -33%•Aprolongedslowdownand weaker-than-expected steeldemand.•Steel prices average 15% lower than we areforecasting in the coming years.•Our risk-adjusted,EV/EBITDA multiple-basedprice target is $4.Catalysts•End-marketautomotive-related.•Headline steel pricing data.•M&A in the US steel Industry.•Trade measures. Westerndemand Worldeconomictrends,primarily2 Exhibit 1 - Cleveland Cliffs Data Sheet.May 28, 2025Stock PriceRatingPrice TargetNPV per shareAnalystDiluted Shares (millions)Market capitalization ($ millions)Financial Summary ($m)Cash & equivalentsST DebtLT DebtBV of EquityDebt / CapitalNet Debt/EBITDANet EV/EBITDAP/EDividend per ShareDividend YieldFinancial DataEPS (diluted)P/EReported Adj. EBITDA (US$ mm)EV/EBITDADividends per ShareDividend Yield on ShareFree Cash Flow Per Diluted ShareFree Cash Flow YieldAdj Net Debt (Incl net Pens. & OPEB)Operations (Prior to 2021 was an Iron Ore Miner)External shipments (short tons ,000)Average Selling Price (US$ per short ton)Steelmaking EBITDA (US$ mm)Other EBITDA (US$ mm)Source: Factset, Company filings, Jefferies' estimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionCleveland-CliffsCleveland-Cliffs is the largest flat-rolled steel producer and BF-BOF operator in North America. Cliffs is also the largest manufacturer of iron ore pelletsin North America. The company is vertically integrated from mined raw materials, direct reduced iron, and ferrous scrap to primary steelmaking anddownstream finishing, stamping, tooling, and tubing.Company Valuation/RisksCleveland-CliffsPrice target is derived from a risk-adjusted, EV/EBITDA multiple. Risks: A US economic downturn leading to a cyclical decline in US steel demand;the impact of the 2024 US presidential election; the state of the Chinese and other major steel markets; and the potential for slower than anticipatedinfrastructure investment.Nippon SteelOur PT is based on EV/EBITDA multiple, which is in line with Nip