Partners Group 私募股权 (PEY LN) 第一季度更新电话会议

UK | Investment Companies Partners Group Private Equity Q1 Update Call Yesterday's call usefully highlighted that c.40% of NAV is in ongoing andupcoming exit processes, which along with available liquidity, contractedexits and the recent sell-down of Galderma, is likely to see share buybacksactivated in the near-to-medium-term. NAV:PEY had already announced a NAV per share of €14.33 as at 31/03/25, reflecting a totalreturn of -4.6% for Q1. Marking to market Vishal Mega Mart, Kindercare and Galderma andadjusting for FX weakness and the ex-dividend, our estimated NAV becomes €13.92, to whichthe shares currently trade on a 31.0% discount. Performance:Based on the valuation bridge, the negative performance during Q1 was drivenby multiple compression and an increase in net debt, partly offset by a positive contributionfrom EBITDA growth. We note the share price weakness in Kindercare alone was responsiblefor c.1% of the NAV decline. Portfolio metrics:The disclosed EV/EBITDA multiple of the top 20 holdings has declined to18x, from 21x as at 31/12/24, while EBITDA growth remained at 12%. We are cognisant thisrepresents a de-rating back to the level of EV/EBITDA as at 30/09/24, likely due to the exclusionof the quoted holdings that drove the strength in the multiple over Q4. Continuing from theboard's acknowledgement of the higher entry multiples paid for the 2021 vintage at the time ofthe Q4 presentation, PEY commented that most companies in the 2020-2021 vintage classesare'now gradually growing into valuations', 'with [a] limited number of underperforming positions'.Aside from the earnings multiple and EBITDA growth metrics, we also note that net debt/EBITDA has increased by a turn to 6x in Q1, although the manager commented on the call thatthe increase was driven by the exclusion of Vishal Mega Mart, which has lower than averageleverage. Elsewhere, PEY reiterated the tariff impact to the portfolio, where 71% of the portfoliowould see less than 1% EBITDA impact from tariffs, with another 18% seeing a 1%-4% EBITDAimpact. Only 9% of the portfolio companies would see a high impact, of 5%-10% of EBITDA. Investments/realisations:There was limited portfolio activity during Q1, with distributionstotalling €8m, against a similar amount invested. Encouragingly, PEY highlighted that c.40%NAV is in ongoing and upcoming exit processes, with the NAV-weighted average holding periodof around five years. More specifically, the 17% of NAV in the 2018 and earlier vintage buckethas'clear visibility on near-term monetisation paths'. Capital allocation policy:Six months of dividends, fees and expenses, plus the 3% of NAVreserve, currently equates to c.€70m, and then adding the gross cash €17.5m, c.€25m ofGalderma sell-down, and c.€15m of contracted distributions means that additional exits ofonly c.€12.5m would be needed to activate share buybacks under the capital allocation policy.Given the above comments that a material proportion of the portfolio is in some form of exitprocess, we would expect this activation to occur on one of the next few quarterly testingpoints under the policy. Matthew Hose * | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7029 8557 | matt.hose@jefferies.com Fiona Huang * | Equity Analyst+44 (0) 20 7548 5149 | fhuang@jefferies.com Company Description Partners Group Private Equity PEY is a listed fund investing directly in a global portfolio of private companies and fund interests. Company Valuation/Risks Partners Group Private Equity PEY trades at a discount to NAV. Risks include overcommitment and high underlying valuations. Analyst Certification: I, Matthew Hose, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report. I, Fiona Huang, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report. Registration of non-US analysts:Matthew Hose is employed by Jefferies International Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore maynot be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held bya research analyst. Registration of non-US analysts:Fiona Huang is employed by Jefferies International Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an