富途（FUTU）：五月进入新西兰；不同市场的丰富产品供应

2023A2024A2025E10,008.013,590.017,668.04,570.05,768.07,800.0 2026E18,015.08,238.0 Zoey Zong * | Equity Analyst852 3743 8163 | zoey.zong@jefferies.comThomas Chong * | Equity Analyst852 3743 8016 | thomas.chong@jefferies.com The Long View: FutuInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•We believe global high net-worth individuals’strong demand forgeographicallydiverse investment portfolios will support Futu’sbrokerage and margin financing businesses, as well as its emergingwealth management business.•We view Futu’s proprietary technology infrastructure as its key strengthoverpeers,which should help save costs and improve operatingefficiency.•We see Futu as ahead of other potential competitors by around 2-3 yearsin terms of financial licenses obtained, technology, and community etc.Base Case,$139, +29%•Starting as an internet technology andsoftwaredevelopment services providerin2007,Futu now operates a leadingtechnology-drivenonlinewealth management platform in Hong Kongand primarily serves the emerging affluentChinese population.•We expect the company to generatesustainablegrowth in its brokerage andmarginfinancing businesses with marketshare gains considering the robust demandfor China’s offshore investment as well as itstechnology advantage over competitors.•PT of US$139 based on PEG valuation.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1)Systematic Risk Management: It has been a market concern whether cross-border brokers can provide offshore securities services to mainland investors. As currently there areno specific licenses applicable in China for offshore brokers to provide overseas securities services tomainland investors, we still need to watch out if there would be further guidelines from the regulatorsto address these concerns.2)Data Security: The Personal Information Protection Law of the PRCimposes pre-approval and other requirements on any cross-border data transfer by PRC entities. Thereis the possibility that Futu may be subject to the relevant requirements.Company Target(s): 1)Futu has established a comprehensive security system, Futu Monolith SafetyProtection System, to protect client information.2)Futu will continue to make significant investmentsin research and development and technology to enhance its platforms.Qs to Mgmt: 1)How are you positioning for potential changes in a regulatory landscape that factor inESG?2)What are you investing in to protect your firm and your customers data?Please see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. brokerage and Upside Scenario,$167, +55%•Macro tailwinds supporting securities markettrading volume in the US, HK and SG.•Controlled competition between industrypeers.•Aggressive market share gains.•PT of US$167 based on PEG valuation. Downside Scenario,$83, -23%•Macro-headwindsimpactingmarket trading volume in the US, HK and SG.•Loss of market share due to competition.•Lower-than-expected commission fee rateand interest rate.•PT of US$83 based on PEG valuation.Catalysts•Improvement of commission fee rates andinterest rates.•Stronger-than-expected investor demand.•Stronger-than-expected user growth andtraffic conversion. securities2 (e) InCanadaandAustralia, average client assets logged five straight quarters of sequentialincrease. (f) Moomoo was launched inNew Zealandin May 2025. Moomoo is now the no 2 brokerin Australia in terms of DAU and its expansion into New Zealand is a natural extension with itsbrand awareness. It can largely replicate the IT infrastructure, marketing resources and productofferings which it has built in Australia, with manageable incremental costs and favorable ROI. (3)2Q momentum: the new funded accounts in 2Q will probably see a double-digit sequential declinedue to high base in 1Q. However, Futu has maintained strong client acquisition momentum, andit is confident to hit its 800K new funded accounts guidance for 2025. Based on the QTD runrate,Futu expects a further sequential increase in total trading volume and total client assets. Netassets inflow is expected to stay as high as 1Q level. (4)Crypto: (a) The crypto prices experiencesome pullback in 1Q that affected the enthusiasm of crypto investors. However, the monthlytrading volume and no of crypto traders stayed at a high level. Since May, there has been arebound in crypto daily trading volume with crypto prices rebound. (b) Futu recently launchedcrypto deposit functionality in HK which makes it easier for clients to seamlessly deposit thecrypto on its platform and switch between different asset classes. (c) It also launched cryptopaper trading function in HK and it is the first regulated crypto platform that is allowed for papertrading in HK. (d) It plans to launch crypto withdrawal function very soon. (d) Moomoo launchedcrypto trading on grayscale basis in most of the states in US, supporting over 30 mainstreamcrypto currency trading. (e) Take rate for cryp