杰富瑞美国消费者动向：是否提前消费，结果都在上升
77.4%71.6%NoIt seems no longer possible to watch cable (orOTT) in the US without seeing auto ads thatemphasize tariff-free pricing...deadline included.Based on our car-shopping response data, itlooks like these ads have found their mark. Ourlatest reading suggests >28% of consumers arelooking to buy/lease a car in the next 3mo, upfrom 20% in Mar. Jefferies Equity Research * | Equity Analyst(888) JEFFERIES | research_support@jefferies.comRandal J. Konik * | Equity Analyst(212) 708-2719 | rkonik@jefferies.comAshley Helgans * | Equity Analyst(212) 336-7367 | ahelgans@jefferies.comJonathan Matuszewski, CFA * | Equity Analyst(212) 284-1737 | jmatuszewski@jefferies.comCorey Tarlowe * | Equity Analyst(212) 323-7541 | ctarlowe@jefferies.comKylie Cohu * | Equity Analyst(212) 778-8701 | kcohu@jefferies.comDavid Katz * | Equity Analyst(212) 323-3355 | dkatz@jefferies.comKaumil Gajrawala * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8937 | kgajrawala@jefferies.comKeith Devas * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8233 | kdevas@jefferies.comAndy Barish * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1524 | abarish@jefferies.comAlexander Slagle, CFA * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1508 | aslagle@jefferies.comJefferies'US Consumer Pulse is derivedfrom high-frequency consumer survey data.We leverage proprietary pricing survey datato create an index, offering an intra-monthlens into consumer-perceived prices. Otherdata streams provide high-frequency insightsregarding sentiment and spending habits.US Consumer SentimentResembling a V-Shaped Recovery.556065707580859095100105110115120125130135Source: Morning Consult, Jefferies Respondents Identifying as Republican Mark NewMulti-Year Sentiment Highs.556065707580859095100105110115120125130135140145Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Mar-19May-19All US RespondentsSource: Morning Consult, JefferiesMiddle Age Cohorts Make a Full Recovery.556065707580859095100105110115120Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Mar-19May-19Source: Morning Consult, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Jul-19Sep-19Nov-19Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Sep-24Nov-24Party ID: RepublicanParty ID: DemocraticParty ID: IndependentJul-19Sep-19Nov-19Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Sep-24Nov-24Age: 18-29Age: 30-44Age: 45-64Age: 65+ Ourpolitically stratified cohorts are back toexpressing divergent sentiment, but in a lopsidedfashion.All three(Republican,Democrat andIndependent) cohorts have been reporting improvedmood, but respondents identifying as Republicancontinueto feel more bullish following their'Liberation Day' hiccup.This group hit 130 for the first time since the secondweek of Mar '20, although this level remains belowthe pre-COVID average of 137.We have also seen sentiment recovery continueacross our age cohorts. While the overall complexionhas yet to change (e.g., younger respondents reporthigher sentiment than the older cohorts), the middleage groups have been acting more alike lately.Both Millennials and Gen X continue to see markedimprovement and have now erased most of theirrespective post-Inauguration Day slides. However,Gen Z and the Baby Boomers remain considerably(~5pts) below YTD highs.2 Most Educated = Most Upbeat...By Far.707580859095100105110115120Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Mar-19May-19Education: Less Than CollegeSource: Morning Consult, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Perhaps the most unusual datapoint across ourconsumersentiment data is that of the mosteducated. Consumers with a Master's Degree+ hita fresh high across the 7Y+ history of the data wetrack. Not only has the higher sentiment reading vs.less educated peers been notable, but the reactionto the recent US policy tweaks has been the mostprofound.Meanwhile, college degree holders have started tooutpace their less educated peers, reaching theirhighestsentiment reading since mid-Feb.Giventhenotably Populist bend to recent US policyannouncements, we believe it is meaningful that theleast educated US consumers are feeling the leastupbeat.3 Consumers Expecting 1H25 LayoffsTicks Higher AgainDo you think your employer (or you) will lay off employees within the next 3 months?.41.3%42.3%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%YesSource: Jefferies Proprietary Survey% of Workers Reporting Hours Being CutHas Significantly IncreasedIf you work an hourly job, have your hours been reduced over the past month?.29.0%31.7%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%YesSource: Jefferies Proprietary SurveyPlease see import
