Worldline（WLN）：2024年账目：旧趋势延续；新地域；更新的激励措施

2025E2026E4,585.84,671.24,840.74,601.84,700.34,842.9(0.3)%2.0%988.01,033.11,118.4 2027E3.6% Hannes Leitner * | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7548 4712 | hleitner@jefferies.comMarco Maglioli * | Equity Analyst+44 (0)20 7029 8626 | mmaglioli@jefferies.comCharles Brennan * | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7548 4140 | cbrennan@jefferies.com The Long View: WorldlineInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•After a challenging pandemic, Worldline grew by double digits onthe back of reopening, inflation, and travel recovery. After cuttingmid-term ambitions, negative trends will likely persist for longer dueto the expected economic downturn and cost-of-living crisis curbingdiscretionary spending.•Due to high-cost inflation headwinds and expected lower growth, hencelower operational gearing, we see additional pressure on Worldline'smargins, likely causing further restructuring programs.•In the absence of premium valuation and amidst high interest rates, wesee limited prospects in significant transformative M&A.Base Case,€5.6, +10%•After Worldline pulled its mid-term ambition,weestimate MSD growth rate influencedby a likely macro-related slowdown in coremarkets (e.g., Germany)•Driven by slower growth,EBITDA marginexpansionshould be c50bp/year goingforward•Implied 2022-27E revenue CAGR = 6%•Implied avg. 2024-27E adj. EBITDA margin =25%•DCF-based PT €5.60Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s):1) Data Security.As a leading player in the European payments landscape,Worldline holds large amounts of customer data, including personal information and credit card data.As such, data management and cybersecurity play a critical role in preventing exposure to bad actors.Company Target(s):1)Reduce Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 25% by 2025(base year 2019).2)Offset 100% of remaining emissions.3)Be recognized as a worldwide inclusiveemployer.Qs to Mgmt:1)What is the scope of your employee training on data security and privacy?2)What areyour plans for improving financial inclusion across countries (e.g., India) that you operate in?Please see important disclosure information on pages 15 - 21 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,€10.4, +104%•Faster-than-expected recovery from high•Implied 2022-27E revenue CAGR = 8%•Implied avg 2024-27E EBITDA margin = 27%•DCF-based PT €10.40 Risk/Reward - 12 Month View403530252015105020252024inflation and economic slowdown drive closeto double-digit revenue CAGR, pushing WLN'sgrowth towards high end of guidance rangeDownside Scenario,€4.2, -18%•Worldline fails to reaccelerate and buildasales pipeline,with persistent marketshare losses resulting in organic rev growthunderperforming broader market growth.•Implied 2022-27E revenue CAGR = 5%•Implied avg 2024-27E EBITDA margin = 23%•DCF-based PT €4.20.Catalysts•H1 results due 30 Jul'25•Any potential large-scale M&A or partnership•Read-across from European peers (e.g., Nexi)and global competitors (e.g., GPN). 2 2024 Financials ReviewIn the following, we provide a some key observations from Worldline's 2024 financialsNew Country revenue split, shows most key countries faced headwinds in 2024:France wasagain down with -1% y/y (2023: -2%) but still makes up 12% of revenues (unchg). From the newcountry disclosure, Germany (18% of total) was down 4%, while Belgium and Netherlands (each10%) were down 10% and 2%, respectively. Conversely, only key Switzerland (12%) was able togrow +2%, or +4% in c/c, in 2024. On regional level, Southern Europe (ex-France) led with +14%,likely driven by Italy, while C&E Europe (ex-GER/CH) and Northern Europe (ex-BEL/NL) were solidat +7% and +6%, respectively.Figure 3 - Worldline's revenue split by country/region.Geographic SplitRevenues, by geographic splitGermanySwitzerlandFranceBelgiumNetherlandsLuxembourgUKAustraliaIndiaNorthern Europe (ex. Belgium, Netherlands)Northern EuropeCentral & Eastern Europe (ex. Germany, Switzerland)Central & Eastern EuropeSouthern Europe (ex. France)Southern EuropeOther (ex-Australia)OtherTotal Groupas % of totalGermanySwitzerlandFranceBelgiumNetherlandsLuxembourgUKAustraliaIndiaNorthern Europe (ex. Belgium, Netherlands)Northern EuropeCentral & Eastern Europe (ex. Germany, Switzerland)Central & Eastern EuropeSouthern Europe (ex. France)Southern EuropeOther (ex-Australia)OtherTotal GroupSource: Company data, Jefferies, some data inferred from disclosed FX splits.SegmentsTaking a look at incremental revenue and cost contribution, we assess the relative impact ofPower24 and operational efficiency:•Merchant Services saw 200bp tailwind from scheme fees in 2024, being down from 300bpin 2023.•Looking at incremental revenues per cost, MS turned negative, adding only €50m of netrevenues at €99m in additional costs.•For Financial Services, revenues declined by €46m y/y on a €23m cost reduction; however,since 2019 (pre-pandemic), FS has added net €66m rev on €99m costs.•For MeTS revenues are down €13m but costs dropp