索巴有限公司（SOBHA IN）：买入：转折点即将来临

Issuer of report:HSBC Securities and CapitalMarkets (India) Private LimitedView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comListen to our insightsHSBC Global Research PodcastsMAINTAIN BUYTARGET PRICE(INR)1850.00SHARE PRICE(INR)1433.00(as of30 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(INRm)Market cap(USDm)3m ADTV (USDm)FINANCIALS AND RATIOS(INR)Year toHSBC EPSHSBC EPS (prev)Change (%)Consensus EPSPE (x)Dividend yield (%)Price to NAV (adj)Acct'g prof rtn (%)52-WEEK PRICE(INR)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesPuneet Gulati*, CFAAnalyst, India Energy Transition, Property & InfraHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limitedpuneetgulati@hsbc.co.in+91 82 9189 7591Akshay Malhotra*Analyst, India Power and Real EstateHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limitedakshay.malhotra@hsbc.co.in+91 22 2268 2007* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesREMDIndia05/24Target price: 1850.00High: 2122.99 Low: 1094.60 Current: 1433.00 Find out morePREVIOUS TARGET(INR)1650.00UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE+29.1%153,239Free float1,792BBG3RIC03/2025a03/2026e9.1147.8311.5140.29-20.813.8443.45157.30.2-1.611/24 40%SOBHA INSOBH.BO03/2027e03/2028e75.6395.7559.3718.727.464.7430.018.915.00.20.2--3.44.4960.001630.002300.0005/25 2Financial statementsYear to03/2025a03/2026e03/2027eProfit & loss summary(INRm)Revenue40,38750,18058,107EBITDA2,9436,55210,040Depreciation & amortisation-898-917-988Operating profit/EBIT2,0455,6359,052Net interest-7151,2041,762PBT1,3306,83910,814HSBC PBT1,3306,83910,814Taxation-383-1,724-2,725Net profit9475,1168,089HSBC net profit9475,1168,089Cash flow summary(INRm)Cash flow from operations5,47913,90519,992Capex-1,544-1,544-1,544FCF enterprise2,4894,2075,714Cash flow from investment-1,544-1,544-1,544Dividends-301-301-301Change in net debt-20,681-5,507-8,107FCF equity3,93512,36118,448Balance sheet summary(INRm)Tangible fixed assets9,67710,42911,579Current assets151,570169,625185,290Cash & others19,58924,19226,402Total assets163,664181,949197,239Gross debt11,31010,4064,508Net debt-8,279-13,787-21,894Shareholders' funds45,77750,59258,380Investedcapital37,16136,99138,198Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to03/2025a03/2026e03/2027eY-o-y % changeRevenue30.424.215.8EBITDA6.2122.653.2EBIT2.9175.660.6PBT79.2414.258.1HSBC EPS76.0424.958.1Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)1.11.41.5ROIC3.811.418.0ROE2.710.614.8ROA1.63.44.4EBITDA margin7.313.117.3Operating profit margin5.111.215.6EBITDA/net interest (x)4.1Net debt/equity-18.1-27.3-37.5Net debt/EBITDA (x)-2.8-2.1-2.2CF from operations/net debtPer share data(INR)EPS Rep (diluted)9.1147.8375.63HSBC EPS9.1147.8375.63DPS2.902.812.81NAV(Book Value)440.52473.02545.84Financials & valuation:Sobha Limited QuarterlytrendsNewlaunches and area sold (msf)Source: Company data, HSBCTotal salesvalue (INRbn)Source: Companydata,HSBCQuarterly cash flow (INRm)Source: Company reports, HSBC00000000000000000000000000000Ss Ss Sisi n00000000000000000000000000000000 Area soldwas up 16%yoy in4QFY25 as launchesincreasedAccordingly,bookings valuealso grew 22%yoy in 4QFY25Cash flows were strongerdriven bythesecond trancheof rightsissue money 4Net debt fell sharply on fundraise Borrowing costdeclined to9.1% Change in estimatesWe raiseFY26-27e earningsby19-27%as we incorporateEBITDA margin expansion and lowerborrowing costs. We also introduce FY28 estimatesin this report.Change in estimates (INRm)__________New______________________Old____________________Change_________FY26eFY27eRevenue50,18058,107EBITDA6,55210,040EBIT5,635PBT6,83910,814PAT5,116EPS (INR)47.83Source: HSBC estimates. FY28eFY26eFY27eFY28eFY26eFY27eFY28e68,33047,35554,799na6%6%na12,5786,3269,097na4%10%na9,05211,5545,3768,111na5%12%na13,6915,7618,489na19%27%na8,08910,2414,3096,349na19%27%na75.6395.7540.2959.37na19%27%na Risks to our viewDownside risks: 1) Slower-than-expected salesmomentum for its new project; 2) contractual businesscould see lower demand due to less officeconstruction; and 3) an increase in debt to meetconstruction capex. Disclosure appendixAnalyst CertificationThe following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) whois(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and anyotherviews or forecasts expressed herein, including anyviews expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflecttheir personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specificrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Puneet Gulati, CFA and Akshay MalhotraImportant disclosur