美国钢铁 铝关税可能上调；对多行业的影响

Restricted - External U.S. Multi-IndustryNEUTRALU.S. Multi-IndustryJulian Mitchell+1 212 526 1661julian.mitchell@barclays.comBCI, USJack Cauchi+1 212 526 9154jack.cauchi@barclays.comBCI, USKenyon C Pelletier+1 212 526 7516kenyonc.pelletier@barclays.comBCI, USMatthew Laflash+1 212 526 8639matthew.laflash@barclays.comBCI, USJimmy Yunhao Jiang+1 212 526 6042jimmy.jiang@barclays.comBCI, USHaemaru Chung+1 212 526 4758haemaru.chung@barclays.comBCI, US FIGURE 1. Steel % of COGS exposure in US MIFIGURE 2. Commodities % of COGS exposure in US MI0%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%NVTCARRLIIKMTHUBBALLETTSWKOTISMMMJCIVNTPNRCommodities % of COGS ExposureSource: Barclays Research, Company Data(vi) Commodity hedging strategies (the more hedging, in theory the smaller the near-termheadwind from higher materials prices);(vii) How companies have communicated recently ontariffs/whethertariffsare included in their2025 guidance/what companies have said as relates to USMCA compliance (the morecompliant, the less risk fromtariffsweighing on margins in theory in general, aside from just theraw materialeffects);(viii) Geographic sourcing exposure (in case certain countries are called out for highertariffsthan others);(ix) How companies communicated around the extent ofprice/cost/tariffheadwinds during thelast period when there was substantial raw material inflation (2021-2023), and how theirmargins performed.(i) Raw materials buy-in / what have companies said on their raw materials andsectoraltariffsexposureWe show below steel and general commodities exposure in US MI (for the companies that haveprovided data). Amongst our coverage, Electrical names (ETN, GEV, HUBB, NVT, VRT) likely havesome of the most meaningful exposure to steel, as well as HVAC names (CARR, JCI, LII, TT), andmore traditional Short Cycle Industrial manufacturing names (GTES, ITW, PH, RRX).NVT, HUBB, and CARR/LII have particularly high exposures to steel, and their broadercommodities exposure is some of the highest in US MI as well.If we look at HUBB (which we estimate has 10% exposure to steel / aluminumtariffsas a % ofCOGS), for example, the annualized impact of steel / aluminumtariffsjumps from ~7% of 2024op profit to ~14% using a 50% rate. Similarly, the in-year 2025 impact jumps from ~4% to ~8%.We show below what companies have said regarding their sectoral / raw materialstariffexposure.•ALLE:°Tariffsenacted as of April 22 14%Avg.2 Source: Barclays Research, Company Data2 June 2025 °'Our non-residential business is largely sourced and produced in the United States, so wedon't anticipate a big impact from those additionaltariffson steel and aluminum' (Q424earnings call);•APG:$1.3bn of material costs (basedoff27% of $4.8bn COGS per 2025 CMD);•CARR:°Tariffsineffectas of their earnings date (impact of furthertariffescalation excluded).°'We at the time of the earnings call, steel was about 80% covered (hedged) for the year.That has now increased substantially. Aluminum and copper were about 50 or so percentcovered. And we have covered most of that for the year now' (3/20/25 conference)•DOV:'Engineered Products, and specifically vehicle services, the most exposed totariffs,soChinese imported subcomponents in our case, structural steel.' (Q125 earnings call)•EMR:'Tariffassumptions for US imports are as follows: IEEPA enacted on February the 4thand March the 4th are held at 25%, Section 232 on steel and aluminum remain at currentlevels' (Q225 earnings call);•ETN:°This reflects the net impact of the announcedtariffs.°'We don't import steel from Canada, is irrelevant, or is very small, good news' (2025 CMD);•FTV:Few $m HW from sectoraltariffs(Q125 follow up call);•GEV:'Now, with the expandedtariffsacross the world beyond China, Canada, Mexico andpulling in some of the spend on steel, which is an impact to us, it really impacts about aquarter of our total direct spend on an annual basis' (Q125 earnings call);•GTES:Impact fromtariffsas of 4/29/25;•HON:'The steel and aluminumtariffshave a very limited direct impact on us, but mostlyindirect impact. Just the second order our suppliers are going to see. So we need to watchthat nearly our contracts protect us, but something to be observed as these things come intoplace. But the net impact of that would not be large' (2/18/25 Conference);•HUBB:Raw material costs represent half of the 'Material costs and IEEPAtariffs'combined$135m guided grosstariffimpact (Q125 earnings slides);•IR:Tariffimpact on steel & aluminum included, assumed based ontariffrates ineffectas of4/30/25;•ITW:Not clear: 'Based on what we know today, we expect thetariffcost impact to be EPSneutral or better' (Q125 earnings call);•JCI:Not clear: 'Lastly, our updated guidance considers the current geopolitical environment,includingtariffs.Based on the regulatory environment as we know it to date, we believe ourannualized exposure totariffbefore mitigating actions is approximately 2% of sales or 3% ofcost of goods sold' (FQ2 25 earnings call);•KMT:Based ontariffsin pl