5月贸易：持续韧性

Restricted - External Bum Ki Son, CFA+ 65 6308 5291bumki.son@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore Source: Korea CustomsOffice,Barclays Research2 June 2025 Relatively constructive on tech exports for Q2Exports fell 4.2% m/m sa in May, mostly due to 2.5 fewer working days versus April (Apr:+5.1%).Adjusting for the working days, we estimate daily exports rose 7.0% m/m sa (Apr:-3.7%), with steady momentum. Even with fewer working days, tech exports rose 4.0% m/m sa(Apr: +4.3%), marking a fourth month of expansion. This was driven by semiconductor exports,which rose 6.9% m/m sa (Apr: +6.5%). We believe continued improvements in end-wholesalers'inventories, increased general server demand from China and continued HBM demand isimproving the outlook for production and lowering inventory levels among electronicsmanufacturers (Figure 4).•Semiconductors:Semiconductor exports rose 6.9% m/m sa (Apr: 6.5%). Steady increases inexport prices for both DRAM and NAND, and increased restocking demand drove both priceand volume improvements in May. We believe strong AI investment momentum and itsspillover to HBM demand are also likely to keep semiconductor exports steady.•Computers (SSD):Computer exports rose 9.5% m/m sa in May (Apr: -20.4%), withimprovements in high content SSD demand amid the global AI investment expansion.•Other tech products:That said, flat panel display exports fell 3.9% m/m (Apr: -7.6%), withweak demand from Asean economies, and smartphone exports fell 8.4% m/m sa (Apr:+12.6%). 2 Source: Korea CustomsOffice,Barclays ResearchFIGURE 5. DRAM spot prices suggest even larger improvements in Q31.301.501.701.902.102.302.502.702.903.103.30May-21Aug-21Nov-21Feb-22May-22Aug-22Nov-22Feb-23May-23DRAM Contract Price DDR4 8Gb 1Gx8 2133/2400 MHz (USD)DRAM Spot Price DDR4 8Gb 1Gx8 2133/2400 MHz (USD)Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research2 June 2025 1Hyundai Motor Group Metaplant America Celebrates Grand Opening, Powering U.S. Economic Growth, 27 Mar 2025,HyundaiFIGURE 6. Non-energy trade surplus remained wideAug-23Nov-23Feb-24May-24Aug-24Nov-24Feb-25May-25-15-10-5051015May-19Aug-19USD bn (sa)Source: Korea Customs, Barclays Research estimatesNon-tech weakness continuedNon-tech exports continue to weaken, dragging on the headline.Weakness in commodity-related exports continues - refined oil exports fell 11.9% m/m sa (Apr: +16.9%) andpetrochemicals exports declined by 11.2% m/m sa (Apr: +3.6%). Steel exports fell 19.5% m/msa (Apr: +17.9%), as the global construction cycle remains on asoftfooting. Auto and auto partsexports declined by -0.8% and -11.9% m/m sa, respectively. Along with opening of the HyundaiMotor's Georgia factory, which will produce up to 500,000 vehicles a year (2024 auto exports toUS were 1.7mn units)1, production of Korean autos in the US is picking up, which will reduceauto exports to the US. Auto parts exports also fell on weaker demand from Europe.In terms of destinations, we track exports to Asia-ex-China continuing to hold up on techexports, while exports to China, the US, and Europe all slowed.We continue to that front-loading of exports to the Asean economies has lowered inventory levels and restocking demandis supporting Korea's tech exports. Nov-19Feb-20May-20Aug-20Nov-20Feb-21May-21Aug-21Nov-21Feb-22May-22Aug-22Nov-22Feb-23May-23Aug-23Nov-23Feb-24May-24Aug-24Nov-24Feb-25May-25EnergyNon-energyTrade balance3 2SK Hynix ships world’s first 12-layer HBM4 samples early, The Korea Economic Daily, 19 March 2025•Exports to China fell 11.6% m/m sa (Apr: +13.0%), with exports of semiconductors,petrochems, and general machinery all easing.•Exports to Taiwan rose 3.8% m/m sa (Apr: -2.8%), with exports of HBM remaining strong.Exports to Asean rose 2.6% m/m sa (Apr: +1.1%), with a strong boost seen in semiconductors.•Exports to the US continue to drop, falling by 3.7% m/m sa in May (Apr: -2.7%), with autoexports falling as factory utilisation by Korean auto makers with plants in the US picking up.•Exports to the EU fell 10.2% m/m sa (Apr: +11.2%), especially of general machinery.Cross-currents likely to keep Korea's exports steady in near-termWe remain constructive on Korea's tech exports in the near-term amid continued demandfrom Asia and for AI investment.In particular, we think the strong rebound in spot prices ofDRAM chips is likely to translate into another jump in export contract prices for Q3, whichimplies the strength in tech exports is likely to extend. In addition, high-end tech exportsaround HBM are likely to continue to improve on new product launches (the HBM4 launch2in Q42025 should see Korea further benefit from the expansion of AI investment).Butsoftcommodity prices are likely weigh on Korea's non-tech exports.Falling oil pricesand thinner margins are likely weigh on refined oil and petrochemicals exports, whichaccount more than 15% of Korea's total exports. Furthermore, Korea's auto exports to the USare likely to continue to slow on the direct impact of higher tradetariffsas well as a fu