银行：H.8（5 21）更新+利率更新
David Chiaverini, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8554 | dchiaverini@jefferies.comDaniel T. Fannon * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1523 | dfannon@jefferies.comJohn Hecht * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1569 | jhecht@jefferies.comBrian Violino, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 444-4139 | bviolino@jefferies.comBrooks Dutton * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 510-3220 | bdutton@jefferies.com Exhibit 3 - H.8 Loan Update.Federal Reserve H.8 Loan Data - Quarter Sequential Change (% Annualized, NSA)% Change of Average Balances Q/Q AnnualizedTotal Domestic BanksCommercial & IndustrialResidential Real EstateCommercial Real EstateConsumerTotal LoansLarge BanksCommercial & IndustrialResidential Real EstateCommercial Real EstateConsumerTotal Large Bank LoansSmall BanksCommercial & IndustrialResidential Real EstateCommercial Real EstateConsumerTotal Small Bank Loans% Change of Average Balances Y/YTotal Domestic BanksCommercial & IndustrialResidential Real EstateCommercial Real EstateConsumerTotal LoansSource: FactSet, Federal Reserve Data, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 12 - 16 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 4 - H.8 Quarterly Deposit Trends.Federal Reserve H.8 Deposit Data - Quarter Sequential Change (% Annualized, NSA)% Change of Average Balances Q/Q AnnualizedLarge BanksSmall BanksTotal Deposits% Change of Average Balances Y/YLarge BanksSmall BanksTotal DepositsSource: FactSet, Federal Reserve, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 12 - 16 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 5 - H.8 Weekly Summary.Federal Reserve H.8 Loan Data - Loan & Deposit Trends (Past 14 Weeks)EOPLoan Balances ($ bn)2/19/2025Total Domestic BanksCommercial & Industrial2,285Residential Real Estate2,620Commercial Real Estate2,898Consumer1,934Other Loans and Leases1,746Total Loans11,483Large BanksCommercial & Industrial1,552Residential Real Estate1,622Commercial Real Estate848Consumer1,590Other Loans and Leases1,392Total Large Bank Loans7,004Small BanksCommercial & Industrial733Residential Real Estate998Commercial Real Estate2,050Consumer344Other Loans and Leases355Total Small Bank Loans4,479EOPDeposit Balances ($ bn)2/19/2025Large Banks11,128Small Banks5,433Total Deposits16,561EOPFed Window ($ Millions)2/19/2025Primary Credit Loans3,2343,422Source: FactSet, Federal Reserve, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 12 - 16 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. H.8 Breakdown – Small vs Large vs AllNote:Our weekly Jefferies H.8 Update note uses the “All Banks” data set. The “All Banks” data setincludes “all domestically chartered commercial banks”, which includes approximately 875 banks.The large data set includes “all large domestically chartered commercial banks”, which includes25 banks. The small banks data set includes “all small domestically chartered commercial banks”,amounting to the difference of around 850 banks. The tables below include H.8 data through May21, 2025.•Total EOP deposits down 1.9% ann., W/W.Deposits are down 3.8% ann., QTD and up 13.1%ann., Y/Y.•Total EOP loans up 0.2% ann., W/W.Loans are up 3.7% ann., QTD and up 13.2% ann., Y/Y.•Total EOP C&I loans up 0.4% ann., W/W.Loans are up 4.3% ann., QTD and up 9.5% ann., Y/Y.•Total EOP CRE loans down -0.2% ann., W/W.Loans are up 1.0% ann., QTD and up 2.9% ann.,Y/Y.•Total EOP Credit Card loans down -0.5% ann., W/W.Loans are up 1.7% ann., QTD and up 12.3%ann., Y/Y.Fed Funds Futures:•For 2025, Fed Funds Futures curve is pricing in ~1 cuts and ~2 in 1H26.•This is a large change from projections 1 month ago.Exhibit 6 - Fed Fund Futures.2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%February-25May-25NowSource: FactSet, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 12 - 16 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. August-25December-25March-26June-26One Week AgoOne Month Ago October-26January-27One Year Ago Exhibit 7 - Interest Rate Update.Period-endFed Funds target rateFed funds effective rate1-month SOFR3-month SOFR3-month Treasury2-year Treasury5-year Treasury10-year Treasury30-year Treasury30-year fixed mortgage3-month Treasury/10-year Treasury spread2-year Treasury/10-year Treasury spread1-month SOFR/5-year Treasury spreadICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adj spreadAverageFed funds effective rate1-month SOFR3-month SOFR3-month Treasury2-year Treasury5-year Treasury10-year Treasury30-year Treasury30-year fixed mortgage3-month Treasury/10-year Treasury spread2-year Treasury/10-year Treasury spread1-month SOFR/5-year Treasury spreadICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adj spreadSource: FactSet, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 12 - 16 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distr
