银行H.8（5 7）和H.4.1（5 14）更新+资产负债表监测

Large BanksSmall BanksW-W Δ ($B)W-W Δ ($B)-$7-$2010010-17-21300-3-10000-26-2-$16$4-35-25-85-811-80bp0bp John Hecht * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1569 | jhecht@jefferies.comDaniel T. Fannon * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1523 | dfannon@jefferies.comMatthew Hurwit, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (415) 229-1487 | mhurwit@jefferies.comAlexander Villalobos * | Equity Associate+1 (415) 229-1479 | avillalobos@jefferies.comIbrahim Kargbo * | Equity Associate(415) 229-1447 | ikargbo@jefferies.comYuna Sohn * | Equity Associate+1 (415) 416-9219 | ysohn@jefferies.comJonathan Weitz * | Equity Associate+1 (415) 229-8717 | jweitz@jefferies.com Summary of H.4.1, Money Market Mutual Fund, and H.8 BalancesFor the week ended 5/14, the Fed ON RRP balance was up $4.8B W-W at $224B (2.2%). We note that although ON RRP balances have been volatileof late, generally balances have been hovering around the ~$150B-$400B range.Exhibit 3 - EOP H.4.1, MMMF, H.8.1 Balances ($B).As of DateFed PrimaryCreditBTFPNet Fed LendingFed ON RRPMMMFH.8 DepositsH.8 Borrowings12/4217201516,63416,60812/11316181526,63716,64712/18213151666,61916,69212/252681976,67216,7231/13481796,71216,6871/82361646,77816,6221/153141696,72616,6131/223031686,76916,5231/293031676,73916,4752/53041666,78416,4942/123031556,79216,4842/193031596,78116,5612/263031596,83916,5413/53031656,89316,6313/122021716,89316,6723/192021826,86816,6703/262021836,87916,7364/22022056,89416,8874/93032286,87116,8884/163032266,74716,7914/233032306,77616,5724/303032286,76816,6945/72022206,80416,6025/142022246,802-FlowsW-WChange12/4-0.1-1.4-1.4-18.894.536.312/110.2-1.5-1.41.43.439.312/18-0.5-2.6-3.113.5-18.544.712/250.0-7.3-7.330.852.631.11/11.2-1.4-0.2-17.840.5-35.61/8-0.8-1.1-1.9-14.665.5-65.21/150.3-2.0-1.84.3-51.9-8.71/220.4-1.1-0.7-0.443.1-90.01/290.10.00.1-1.4-29.9-48.62/50.30.00.3-0.344.818.92/12-0.40.0-0.4-11.48.5-9.32/190.20.00.23.7-11.476.52/260.1-0.10.0-0.158.8-20.13/5-0.30.0-0.36.354.090.43/12-0.7-0.1-0.86.00.041.23/19-0.30.0-0.311.3-25.2-2.33/260.10.00.11.110.465.64/2-0.10.0-0.121.615.6151.04/90.60.00.622.8-22.91.64/160.00.00.0-1.5-124.0-97.14/230.40.00.43.828.2-219.74/300.40.00.4-2.3-7.6122.85/7-1.00.0-1.0-8.236.1-92.55/14-0.30.0-0.34.8-1.6-16,601.9Source: Federal Reserve, ICI, Jefferies.Please see important disclosure information on pages 21 - 26 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. 1,2851,2891,2651,2741,2681,2851,2731,2871,2831,2811,3001,3101,3121,2811,2781,2651,2841,2271,2491,2531,3231,3351,338--9.74.0-23.99.2-6.117.2-12.214.2-4.6-1.518.210.32.5-31.3-2.7-13.819.3-56.821.84.569.711.83.3-1,338.12 Fed Funds Futures:•For 2025, Fed Funds Futures curve is pricing in ~2 cuts and ~1 in 1H26.•This is a large change from projections 1 month ago.Exhibit 4 - Fed Fund Futures Curve.2.50%2.75%3.00%3.25%3.50%3.75%4.00%4.25%4.50%May25Jun25Jul25Source: FactSet, Jefferies.H.8 Breakdown – Small vs Large vs AllThe tables below highlight the balance sheet growth rate differences between large and small banks.We also include the average loan portfolio mix for both types.We exclude small vs large analysis ona Y-Y basis due to balance adjustments of certain loan categories.•Note:Our weekly Jefferies H.8 Update note uses the “All Banks” data set. The “All Banks”data set includes “all domestically chartered commercial banks”, which includes approximately875 banks. The large data set includes “all large domestically chartered commercial banks”,which includes 25 banks. The small banks data set includes “all small domestically charteredcommercial banks”, amounting to the difference of around 850 banks. The tables below includeH.8 data through May 7, 2025.•Total deposits down 0.6% W-W.Deposits are down 0.8% Q-Q and up 3.0% Y-Y.•Total borrowings up 0.2% W-W.Borrowings are up 4.2% Q-Q and down 4.8% Y-Y.•Total loans down 0.2% W-W.Loans are up 0.9% Q-Q and up 3.2% Y-Y.•C&I down 0.4% W-W.Loans are up 0.9% Q-Q and up 2.2% Y-Y.•Total CRE flat W-W.Loans are up 0.3% Q-Q and up 0.5% Y-Y.•"Other" comm'l down 1.0% W-W.Loans are up 2.7% Q-Q and up 12.5% Y-Y.•Mortgage up 0.2% W-W.Loans are up 0.5% Q-Q and up 1.6% Y-Y.•Home equity flat W-W.Loans are up 1.4% Q-Q and up 4.3% Y-Y.•Credit card down 0.4% W-W.Loans are up 0.7% Q-Q and up 3.6% Y-Y.•Auto down 0.1% W-W.Loans are up 0.7% Q-Q and down 0.3% Y-Y.Please see important disclosure information on pages 21 - 26 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Aug25Sep254/4/2025 Oct25Nov25Dec2526-Jan26-Feb26-Mar26-Apr5/15/2025 See our note “Deconstructing H.8” for additionalinformation about the different H.8 data sets.3 Exhibit 5 - Weekly Balance Sheet Changes (Large vs. Small).CategoryC&ICREConst. & LandMultifamilyOther Comm'lMortgageHome EquityCredit CardAutoOther ConsumerTotal LoansSecuritiesCashTotal DepositsBorrowingsACL RatioSource: Federal Reserve, Jefferies.Exhibit 7 - H.8 EOP Balance Sheet Growth.CategoryEOP (2Q vs. 1Q)C&ICREConst. & LandMultifa