5月担保债券总结

Restricted - External Cristina Costa+33 (0) 1 44583195cristina.costa@barclays.comBBI, ParisAnnalaura Capuano+49 (0) 69 7161 2002annalaura.capuano@barclays.comBBI, Frankfurt FIGURE 3. Net EUR CB supply increased in MayFIGURE 4. CB supply in EUR, USD, GBP051015202530JanFeb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2025 Redemptions EURbn85.06.55.1110.550.68020406080100120EURUSDGBPin bn2025YTD2024YTDNote: as of 31 May 2025Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchWith EUR CB redemptions of €12.2bn in the month, net supply was positive, and given thecatch-up in supply (€20.5bn in May,after€11.6bn in April and only €9.5bn in March), cumulativeYTD net supply is now at c. €14bn (Figure 3). Figure 4 shows YTD supply by currency vs end-May2024.German and French issuers are leadingGerman and French issuers are leading EUR CB supply YTD, with €21.55bn and €19.5bn issuedrespectively (German supply includes six €250mn sub-benchmark transactions). Otherjurisdictions that have been quite active in EUR YTD are Norway (€6.5bn, c. €2.25bn higher thanend-May 2024), Australia (€5.5bn, €2bn higher y/y) and Sweden (€3.5bn, €2.25bn higher y/y).Supply from Canada at €3.5bn YTD is half the amount issued in the first five months of 2024.Supply from peripheral jurisdictions has been fairly low, with volumes in Italy (€2.85bn vs €7bnin 2024YTD), Spain (€1bn) and Portugal (€1.5bn) lower y/y.2 FIGURE 6. Most YTD supply in the belly of the curveFIGURE 7. 20y CBs were last issued in 2022<5Y17%5Y36%17.2%36.4%29.9%7.4%8.0%1.2%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%<5Y5Y6-7Y8-9Y10Y11-15Y20212022202320242025YTDSource: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchReopening of the long end in May but most supply still in the belly of the curveThe month of May saw a reopening of the long end with 13% of supply in the area 10y+. Fourissuers tested the longer end in May: one 9Y CB (CFF's €750mn May/2034), three 10ytransactions (LBBW €500mn May/2035, ERSTBK's €1bn May/2035 and CMCIC's €750mn June/2035) and one 12y CB (CAFFIL's €500mn May/2037). The longest dated CB YTD isDeutsche Kreditbank's €500mn Feb/2040 social mortgage Pfandbrief issued in February. Theissuer will be testing the long end, as it plans to issue a €500mn (will not grow) 20y public sectorPfandbrief. There has not been a 20y transaction since January 2022, when CAFFIL issued a€500mn with maturity May/2042 and Credit Agricole Italia issued a €500mn Jan/2042 (Figure 7).The reopening of the primary market in May was welcome with good demand and deals pricedon average 5-6bp tighter than IPT and were on average 2-3x oversubscribed, but as of last weekwe saw investors becoming slightly more selective, and average O/S coming down at around1.8x and average and NICs edging up (Figure 8). >15Y3 FIGURE 10. YTD ESG CB supply per country0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025% of EUR Benchmark CB (RHS)Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchDecline in sustainable issuanceDespite higher volumes in May, there has been a drop in sustainable issuances. During themonth, only one social CB was issued, leaving sustainable covered bond supply at €0.5bn forthe month and €10.1bn YTD, or 11.63% of EUR volumes YTD. As we outlined here, supply ofsustainable covered bonds stood at €9.6bn as at end-April 2025, representing c. 16% of EUR CBsupply in the first four months of the year.Solid start to the month of JuneIssuers are continuing to take advantage of good issuance conditions. On 2 June, two issuerstapped the market in EUR: Credit Agricole Public Sector SCF issued a €750mn, 5y CB at ms+43bp(from IPTs ms+50a, books above €1.4bn) and Norwegian SR-Boligkreditt issued a €750mn, 5y CBat ms+34bp (4bp tighter than initial guidance). The pipeline continues to grow. In addition tothe aforementioned Deutsche KreditBank €500mn 20y public sector Pfandbrief, Estonian LHVPank has announced a €300mn 4y covered. Also, HSBC UK Bank has announced plans for a 5yEUR benchmark covered bond. This will be the first non-GBP UK covered bond since the PRA DE32%FR27%KR11%FI8%IT7%ES5%NL5%NO5%4 FIGURE 12. Covereds, SSAs and govies' indices-40-200204060Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25Apr-25ASW-Spread, bpSupranationalsEUCoveredSSA (AAA)French GovieGerman GovieSource: Bloomberg, Barclays Researchannouncements in April (see here and here). HSBC UK is a rare issuer and has not brought abenchmark CB transaction since 2023, when it issued in sterling format.CBs performance vs other asset classesBund-ASW spreads became less negative during the month of May and this is positive for bothcovered bonds and SSAs. Also, increased geopolitical tensions andtariff-relatedvolatility havehelped these lower-beta asset classes, whose spreads have indeed performed relatively well inrecent weeks and months. Looking at the relative performance of covereds and SSAs (Figure 12)it is remarkable how, at index level, the premium that coveredsofferedover SSAs has almostvanished since the beginning of 2024:•In Jan 2024, the EUR SSA(AAA) index was c. 25bp tighter tha