查特通信公司（CHTR）：稍作喘息 - 下调至市场表现评级

Charter Communications IncRatingMarket-Perform(OutperformOLD)Price TargetCHTR410.00 USD(385.00OLD)Adjusted EPSF24AF25EF26ECHTR (USD)34.9737.6141.53OLD--37.6840.52FinancialsRevenues (M)EBITDA (M)Net Debt/EBITDA (x)Net Earnings (M)Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.PerformCharter’s stock is up ~40% YoY and ~15% YTD (vs. flat S&P), and we’re taking a breather.We’re downgrading Charter to Market-Perform. While secular challenges remain in theforeseeable future, it’s also worth noting that Charter’s Capex is expected to peak in ‘25, withcash flow projected to rise starting in ‘26, supporting its levered buyback program. Recentconcerns around a potential EBITDA decline in ‘25 appears to have subsided, helping pushthe stock to what we view as fair value. We still see some upside from here, but not enough tojustify a bullish stance - at least not now.Charter has lost BB subs for nine consecutive quarters (exacerbated by ACP), and it’s unclearwhen it will return to positive net adds given fiber and FWA growth. Telcos remain committedto expanding fiber coverage, and FWA subs are expected to ~double before ‘30, reaching~20 million subs. While none of this is new, recent developments affirm the view that thecompetitive landscape is unlikely to shift in CHTR’s favor.Despite near-term challenges, we find Charter’s recent developments encouraging, as theypoint to a more resilient future. Charter is showing signs of stabilizing subscriber losses byoffsetting core declines with subsidized rural builds and aggressive convergence offers.Mobile ARPU has steadily increased to >$30, and we expect this trend to continue as freelines transition to paid.We also expect Charter’s deal with Cox to be accretive (pending regulatory approval). Theadded scale and cost synergies will generate >$28 billion in EBITDA, keeping the buybackengine running as overall Capex intensity declines. While this doesn’t solve the fundamentalnear-term challenges, we believe the increased scale could provide some relief, supportedby a more efficient cost structure. Given the expected timing of the deal’s closing, our pricetarget does not yet include the potential upside from the Cox transaction.Investment ImplicationsWe are downgrading CHTR to Market-Perform with an adjusted PT of $410 (+$25).. Thesmall adjustment is driven by improving profitability of Spectrum Mobile.See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website.First Published: 02 Jun 2025 04:05 UTC Completion Date: 02 Jun 2025 02:09 UTC F26E9.52.86.631.9396.27410.003%DecNA62,14912M43.512.930.6 F24AF25EF26ECAGR55,08555,26755,937--22,65222,88223,519--4.214.123.92(3.5)%5,8536,3706,604--Close DateSPXFYEDiv YieldEV (USD) (M)PerformanceAbsolute (%)SPX (%)Relative (%)$450$400$350$30006/24 DETAILSRELEVANT RECENT NOTES:22 May 2025 - AT&T: Fast-tracking its fiber expansion by snapping up Lumen's consumer fiber business20 May 2025 - AT&T's fiber-led bundle and churn management drive postpaid growth19 May 2025 - Quick Take: Charter and Cox agree to merge creating the largest CableCo - but not the largest it could've been2 May 2025 - US Telecom: Q1'25 Industry Update - Warning28 Apr 2025 - Charter 1Q25: Execution leads the way24 Apr 2025 - Comcast Q1'25: Deeper in the woods22 Apr 2025 - US Telecom: Wireless and Spectrum - can't have one without the other (Part I)8 Apr 2025 - US Telecom: Competitive intensity update - no Q1 breather12 Mar 2025 - US Telecom: The range of outcomes for Cable BB net adds in 202510 Mar 2025 - US Telecom: Quarterly Update - The Fight is On.BROADBAND SUBSCRIBER GROWTH STRUCTURALLY HINDEREDThe cable industry has been facing challenging times in recent years as TelCos have rolled out FWA broadband and acceleratedfiber build outs. As a result, cable has been losing market share in the broadband market (Exhibit 1). CableCos could lose morethan 1M Cable BB subs in 2025 depending on how the competitive dynamics unfold (Exhibit 2).Charter has been no exception to this trend. Charter’s residential broadband net add numbers have been deteriorating from the1.1M+ annual net add level before 2022 to 132K net adds in 2023. And the decline in subscribers was further impacted by theend of the ACP funding in 2024, which alone led to 450K net losses for Charter in 2024. Going forward, we expect CHTR tolose 130K-180k net adds in 2025, an improvement vs. 2024 but still managing overall losses (Exhibit 3).During these challenging times, CHTR’s EBITDA generation has remained healthy (Exhibit 4). However, growth has deceleratedin terms of revenues and EBITDA in the past few years due to the challenges in broadband (Exhibit 6).US MEDIA & TELECOM 2 EXHIBIT 1:CHTR is not the only player with broadband difficulties.Cable is being challenged by FWA and Fibertaking share in the low and high end of the market, respectively.460-732-1732759-225-198-406-203-509-323