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Amy YangEconomist(+1) 212 250 9959 | amy.yang@db.comMatthew LuzzettiChief US Economist(+1) 212 250 6161 | matthew.luzzetti@db.comBrett RyanSenior Economist(+1) 212 250 6294 | brett.ryan@db.comJustin WeidnerEconomist(+1) 212 469 1679 | justin-s.weidner@db.comAvik ChattopadhyayResearch Associateavik-a.chattopadhyay@db.comMay 19, 2025 ResearchDeutsche BankAmy Yang | (+1) 212 250 9959 |amy.yang@db.comMay 19, 2025DB Fed Watcher:A midsummer night's delayFedspeakWho**TakeawaysBias*Powell[3](05/15)▪Reconsider average inflationtargeting, language around‘shortfalls’ for max. employment▪Need robust framework for a broadrange of conditions; See morefrequent supply shocks▪Must convey uncertainty on outlookamidst large shocksJefferson[3](05/14,19)▪Policy well-positioned for timelyresponse; facing risks to both sidesof mandates; wait and see▪Expect lower growth in ’25 but still inexpansion▪Higher tariffs cause higher inflationthis year; unsure if it would betemporary. Govt. policy effect likelyuncertain for ‘sometime’Williams[2](05/09,19)▪Monetary policy slightly restrictiveand in good place▪Will take time beyond June, July forclearer outlook▪No eco. stability w/o price stability▪Economy near full employment.Trade policies might slow growth▪r* around 0.75% to 1%▪‘Ways to go’ in shrinking B/SCook[2](05/12)▪Trade policy uncertainties dragproductivity, potential growth andlead to higher inflation▪Ceteris paribus, lower productivitycan call for rates ‘higher for longer’Fedspeak, continuedWho**TakeawaysBias*Barr[2](05/09,15)▪Tariffs can create persistent upwardinflation pressure, lower growth▪Unsure on tariffs’ final form oreconomic impact▪Policy in good shape. Forwardmeasures concerningKugler[3](05/09,12)▪Policy stance somewhat restrictive,well positioned▪Tariff leads to higher inflation andunemployment, slower growth▪Labor market resilient and stable,likely close to max. employment▪Past recoveries suggest 3.5% URsustainable▪China tariff rate down tremendouslybut still high. Eco. impact likely stillsignificantBostic[3](05/09,16,19)▪Need to wait 3-6 months foruncertainty to settle. Leaning “muchmore” into 1 cut this year▪Policy “mildly” restrictive▪‘Worry a lot’ about inflation mandate.Might need to lean against tariff-induced inflation pressure▪Tariffs on China still significant▪See slower growth but no recession.Expect 1% or 0.5% growth this year▪Consumer behavior will be impactedwith longer tariff transition▪Treasury markets are still functioningquite well* Bias of speech / research for monetary policy:DovishNeutralHawkishSummary:Officials agree that current policy is well positioned, and the Fed can wait amid elevated uncertainty. Cuts by September appear unlikelyDB View: Fed resumes cutting in December (25bps), followed by 2 more 25bp cuts in Q1 2026 reaching a neutral level of 3.625% Fedspeak, continuedWho**TakeawaysGoolsbee[1](05/12,14)▪Fed can afford to not act hastily▪Fed’s job is to be a ‘steady hand’Kashkari[4](05/19)▪Wait and see for more informationLogan[4](05/19)▪Supports regular early settlement ofSRF, as well as central clearing**The numbers in the bracket signify the Hawk-Dove score foreach Fed official. Scale:Dove = 1,2,Centrist = 3,Hawk = 4,5Events to watch thisweekWhenWhoSetting / topicMay-20Bostic▪Atlanta Fed conferenceBarkin▪Richmond Fed conferenceCollins▪Fed Listens eventMusalem▪Economy and monetary policyKugler▪Berkeley CommencementHammack,Daly, Bostic▪Atlanta Fed conferenceMay-21Barkin,Bowman▪Fed Listens eventMay-22 Williams▪New York Fed eventMay-23Musalem,Schmid▪Fed and the economyCook▪Financial stabilityMay-25 Powell▪Remarks at Princeton University ResearchDeutsche BankAmy Yang | (+1) 212 250 9959 |amy.yang@db.comMay 19, 2025Chart highlights0123456161718192021222324252627Fed Funds RateFed DotsDB projectionsFed funds futures%Market seesfirst cut in Sept and 2 cuts thisyearSource: FRB, Bloomberg Finance LP, Haver Analytics,Deutsche BankTrade policy uncertainty has skyrocketed torecord high levelsSource: MatteoLacoviello, Haver Analytics,Deutsche Bank0200400600800100012008085 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25Trade policy uncertainty indexIndex Recentpublications:FedNotes:TakeawaysfromtheFed'spolicyframeworkconference–May-19-2025USEconomicNotes:Taxbilldetailssuggeststillelevateddeficitsinthenearterm–May-15-2025USEconomicNotes:DataDBrief:Financialconditionshaveunwoundtariffshock–May-142025USEconomicNotes:AprilCPIrecap:Earlysignsoftariffs–May-13-2025USEconomicPerspectives:Chinesetariffwallstartstocomedown–May-12-2025Webinar:AprilCPIpreview&webinarregistration-May-08-2025USEconomicPerspectives:Tradepolicyuncertainty:There'stoomuchconfusion,Ican’tgetnorelief–May-08-2025FedNotes:MayFOMCrecap:Nothingmuchtosaybeyondstay–May-07-2025 Measures of broad-based inflation show someevidence of stalling progressSource: FRB Dallas, FRB Cleveland, BEA, Haver Analytics,Deutsche Bank0123456701234567200920122015201820212024Fed Dallas: Trimmed-meanDB Underlying Inflation (median)FRB Cleveland Median PCE% y/y% y/yFCI-G has eased su