亚洲周刊5月26日至30日-115597624

EconomicsAsia Week Ahead Juliana LeeChief Economist+65-6423-5203Kaushik DasChief Economist+91-22-7180 4909Yi Xiong, Ph.D.Chief Economist+852-2203 6139Junjie HuangEconomist+65-6423-6699Deyun OuEconomist+852-2203 6166 26 May 2025Asia Week AheadPage 2while downside risks could arise from re-escalation of trade and economic tensionswith the US.BI took the opportunity for a 25bps rate cut in May, against our expectation of ahold, amid the recent strength in the rupiah alongside regional currencies.Still,the downside risk on regional currencies including the rupiah remains significant,in our view, given tariff uncertainties. Nonetheless,our base case for now is foranother 25bps cut in July, bringing forward our previous call for a 25bps cut in H12026, as this month’s cut could signal BI’s willingness to frontload policy easing toshore up flagging growth. See Indonesia: BI makes an opportunistic cut in May;next cut could be in July for details.Hong Kong CPI grew by 2% YoY in April, surpassing market expectations of 1.6%and exceeding March's 1.4% increase.This acceleration was primarily attributableto the timing of the Easter holiday, which fell in April this year but in March last year.Evidently, CPI of travel and transportation surged to 5.3% YoY and 3.8% YoY, from-7.4% and 1.7% in March, respectively.Singapore's core inflation rose to 0.7% YoY in April (Mar: 0.5%), slightly above ourexpectation of 0.6% and consensus of 0.5%.The continued decline in airfares andtelecommunication services prices was more than offset by an uptick in food (meat,diary) and health insurance. Nonetheless, YTD core inflation has averaged 0.6%,near the bottom of MAS's 0.5-1.5% forecast range for the year. We think that coreinflationis unlikely to significantly pick up;both external and domesticdisinflationarypressures remain.See Singapore:S$NEER sustains strengthdespite MAS's policy shift. Deutsche Bank AG/SingaporeAdvanced Asia – financial conditionsFigure 1: Advanced Asia FCIs-6-5-4-3-2-101220202021202220232024TASKSGHKSource : CEIC, Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank ResearchFigure 3: Hong Kong FCI-5-4-3-2-101220202021202220232024marketsexternalbankingFCISource : CEIC, Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank ResearchFigure 5: South Korea FCI-2-101220202021202220232024marketsexternalbankingFCISource : CEIC, Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Research Source : CEIC, Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Research Deutsche Bank AG/SingaporeAppendix 1Important Disclosures*Other information available upon request*Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies,and other sources. For further information regarding disclosures relevant to Deutsche Bank Research, please visit our globaldisclosure look-up page on our website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures. Aside from withinthis report, important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing.Analyst CertificationThe views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, theundersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or viewin this report. Juliana Lee, Kaushik Das, Yi Xiong, Junjie Huang. Page 5 Page 6Additional InformationThe information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively 'DeutscheBank'). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sources believed to bereliable, Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Hyperlinks to third-party websites in thisreport are provided for reader convenience only. Deutsche Bank neither endorses the content nor is responsible for theaccuracy or security controls of those websites.If you use the services of Deutsche Bank in connection with a purchase or sale of a security that is discussed in this report, oris included or discussed in another communication (oral or written) from a Deutsche Bank analyst, Deutsche Bank may act asprincipal for its own account or as agent for another person.Deutsche Bank may consider this report in deciding to trade as principal. It may also engage in transactions, for its own accountor with customers, in a manner inconsistent with the views taken in this research report. Others within Deutsche Bank,including strategists, sales staff and other analysts, may take views that are inconsistent with those taken in this researchreport. Deutsche Bank issues a variety of research products, including fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis,quantitative analysis and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one ty