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Figure 1: Market summaryEquitiesS&P5005844.61Stoxx600553.82FTSE8786.46TOPIX2732.88CSI3003916.38VIX20.87DebtUST104.60UST24.02SFR43.83Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance, L.P.Phil OdonaghoeEconomist+61-2-8258-1606 22 May 2025DBDailyPage 2rise in term premia. Against that 'stability' calculus: the fiscal package currently infront of Congress will keep budget deficits between 6.5% and 7% of GDP over thenext few years.Investor concerns about US fiscal dynamics look likely to persist.Ken Koyama thinks theunsuccessful 20yr JGB auction held on Tuesdayreflectedconcerns regarding the government's proactive fiscal policy and a decline in thefunctionality of the JGB market. Ken argues that restoring functionality is vital: theBoJ should reduce its JGB purchases as quickly as possible, the government shouldflexibly review its JGB issuance plans, and work towards a sustainable fiscalstructure.Meanwhile, George Saravelos notes that therising gap between USDJPY andyields is a sign of building US fiscal risks.At the same time, the recent rise inJapanese back-end yields is a bigger problem for the US treasury market becauseif encourages further divestment from the US. Ultimately: the market is becomingincreasingly driven by external asset positions, and this is putting combineddownward pressure on US bond markets and the USD.And Jim Reid shows that in the wake of the weak 20yr JGB auction - which saw thelowest demand in a decade -30yr JGBs are now at their highest ever yield, with30yr Gilt yields having only been higher for one post-Liberation Day session sincesummer 1998. 30yr UST are within 10bps of 18-year highs. Is this a source ofconcern or an opportunity?China's fiscal spending accelerated in March and April, resulting in a fiscal deficitincrease of 0.5% of GDP in the first four months of 2025, supporting a 7%yoy risein spending which should support domestic demand momentum in the short termin light of higher US tariffs on exports. But further policy measures such as a budgetrevision may still be required. Yi Xiong with the details.What do US deficits mean for gold? Michael Hsueh's long term model finds USpublic debt growth is second in importance to the Broad USD. Higher deficits meanhigher gold prices.DB's team with their latestAsia weekly. Flows are shifting for the better in China,it is dividend season in China and Hong Kong and the team are targeting a break of6% on IGB 10Y. Also, a preview of the upcoming Korean Presidential election.The RBA's July meeting is live for a cut. And though it may seem counter-intuitive,the fact that the RBA will no longer "rely" on data for policy actually makes theupcoming data more important, not less. We outline a data 'road map to July' andmake four observations (1) we see some downside risks to household consumptionin Q1 compared to the RBA's May SMP forecast; (2) the RBA's near term outlook foremployment growth looks very pessimistic; (3) if house prices rise by more than0.7% between now and the July meeting, that might make the RBA uncomfortable;(4) we calculate that the RBA expects trimmed mean inflation to print at 0.57% qoqin Q2.The day aheadRBA's Hauserspeaks on "Open the Door and See the Mountain: Reflections froma Recent Trip to China", 6:30pm Sydney time.Japan core machinery orders, March. 22 May 2025DBDailyDeutsche Bank AG/SydneyFlash PMIsfor May across the globe.US jobless claims,Chicago Fed national activity, April.ECB minutes, April.ECBspeak: Elderson, Guindos, Escriva, Vujcic 22 May 2025DBDailyPage 4AMERICASUSA: MBA mortgage applications (May 16): Down 5.2% from May 9.The four-week moving average rose 11.7% yoy in the week ending May 16.EUROPEUK: CPI (Apr): Up 1.2% mom/3.5% yoy, above mkt.The services CPI rose 5.4% yoy in April.UK: House price index (Mar): Up 6.4% yoy.London prices increased 0.8% yoy in March.CHE: M3 (Apr): Up 2.9% yoy.The M2 increased 10.7% yoy in April.SWE: Industry capacity (Q1): Up 0.5pps to 88.0%.The previous quarter reading was revised down 0.2pps to 87.5%. 22 May 2025DBDailyDeutsche Bank AG/SydneyASIAJPN: Trade deficit (Apr): At JPY115.8bn.Exports rose 2.0% yoy in April, while imports declined 2.2% yoy. 22 May 2025DBDailyPage 6AUSTRALIANo major data/event release.NEW ZEALANDNZL: Trade surplus (Apr): Widens to NZD1.43bn.The adjusted trade deficit widened to JPY408.9bn in April. Deutsche Bank AG/SydneyWeek Ahead DiaryAUSTRALIAThursdayRBA’s Hauser speaksManufacturing PMI (May P)[Previous: 51.7pts]FridayNo major data/event releaseNEW ZEALANDThursdayNo major data/event releaseFridayRetail Sales (Q1)[DB: 0.2%qoq; Previous: 0.9% qoq] Deutsche Bank AG/SydneyWeekly Economic DiaryFigure 2: Data CalendarSource : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Page 8Figure 3: Data CalendarSource : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Deutsche Bank AG/SydneyAppendix 1Important Disclosures*Other information available upon request*Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchang