巴克莱T.R.U.C.K.S.——系统跟踪美国实时货运关键绩效指标

Restricted - External North America TransportationPOSITIVENorth America TransportationEric Morgan, CFA+1 212 526 9642eric.morgan@barclays.comBCI, USBrandon R. Oglenski+1 212 526 8903brandon.oglenski@barclays.comBCI, USDavid Zazula, CFA+1 212 526 5108david.zazula@barclays.comBCI, USJohn Dorsett+1 212 526 8487john.dorsett@barclays.comBCI, US FIGURE 1. Summary of Positive Incremental Trucking Data Points This WeekSource: Haver; Bloomberg; US Census; BEA; FRB; ISM; EIA; BLS; ATA; ITS; DAT; FTR; FMCSA; Cass; Barclays ResearchFIGURE 2. Summary of Negative Incremental Trucking Data Points This WeekApr-3%Mar-4%Apr-6%Apr7%5/23-15%Apr-11%May-3%Apr-4%May-5%May-7%5/30-18%(0.3)(0.4)(0.4)(0.5)(0.6)PMI CompositeLTL ShpWeightPMI New OrdersITS Dry-Van MDIITS Dry-Van MDISpot TruckBarclays T.R.U.C.K.S. Summary of Negative Changes This Week(annual ch. & sequential z-score)Prior YoYNote: PMIs are shown as percent variance from 50 for illustrative purposes; PMI z-scores are based on the reporteddiffusionindex and represent the number of standarddeviations away from historical average index value.Source: Haver; Bloomberg; US Census; BEA; FRB; ISM; EIA; BLS; ATA; ITS; DAT; FTR; FMCSA; Cass; Barclays Research3 June 2025 Apr22%May-5%May11%(0.6)(0.7)Avail.Spot LoadAvail.Current YoY Historical Time Series of Key Trucking-related DataFIGURE 5. US Retail Consumption Measures — Recent History0%1%2%3%4%5%6%Jun-23Aug-23Oct-23Dec-23Feb-24Apr-24Jun-24Aug-24Oct-24Dec-24Feb-25U.S. Retail Consumption Measures(ex-auto/gas; annual ch.)Retail SalesReal Goods PCESource: Haver; US Census; BEA; Barclays Research Source: Haver; US Census; Barclays ResearchFIGURE 8. FMCSA Motor Carrier Operating Authorities (Property) —Recent History-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%Jun-23Aug-23Oct-23Dec-23Feb-24Apr-24Jun-24FMCSA Active Operating Authorities(motor property common carriers; abs. & annual ch.)Annual ch.Source: FMCSA; Barclays ResearchFIGURE 10. North America Class 8 Net Orders — Recent History-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%Jun-23Aug-23Oct-23Dec-23Feb-24Apr-24North America Class 8 Truck Net Orders(new orders less cancellations; absolute & annual ch.)Annual ch.Source: Bloomberg; FTR; Barclays Research3 June 2025 Source: Bloomberg; ITS; Barclays ResearchFIGURE 14. Truckload Pricing (Rate per Mile, Ex-Fuel) — RecentHistory-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24Truckload Pricing(rate/mile ex-fuel; annual ch.)DAT Con.DAT SpotSource: Bloomberg; ITS; DAT; EIA; Cass; Barclays ResearchFIGURE 16. LTL Industry Yields (Rev/CwT Ex-Fuel) — Recent History-10%-5%0%5%10%Jun-23Aug-23Oct-23Dec-23Feb-24LTL Industry Yields & Shipment Weights(annual ch.)Rev/CwT Ex-FuelSource: Bloomberg; ATA; company reports; Barclays Research3 June 2025 Apr-24Jun-24Aug-24Avg. Weight per Shipment Source: Bloomberg; ATA; Barclays Research Source: Bloomberg; ATA; company reports and commentary; Barclays Research Source: Bloomberg; ATA; company reports and commentary; Barclays Research3 June 2025 Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Brandon R. Oglenski and Eric Morgan, CFA, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal viewsabout any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly orindirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues,a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities, the profitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of thefirm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset class covered by the analyst.Analysts regularly conduct site visits to view the material operations of covered companies, but Barclays policy prohibits them from accepting paymentor reimbursement by any covered company of their travel expenses for such visits.Barclays Research Department produces various types of research including, but not limited to, fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis,quantitative analysis, and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type