巴克莱T.R.U.C.K.S. -系统跟踪美国货运实时关键绩效指标：整车现货价格仍然停滞，到目前为止落后于6月的典型季节性；我们还更新了Heartland的估计。

Barclays T.R.U.C.K.S. – Trackingreal-time U.S. cargo KPIssystematically HTLDUNDERWEIGHTUnchanged TL spot rates remain stagnant, thus far lagging typicalseasonality for June; we also update Heartland estimates. North AmericaTransportationPOSITIVEUnchanged Price TargetUSD 9.00Unchanged We appreciate your5-star votein the2025Extel All-America Research Surveyin theAirfreight &Surface Transportation category.View our analysts » Vote 5 Stars for Barclays » What's new this week (Figure 1):Truckload spot rates were relatively steady, with DAT comingin flat to the prior week and ITS declining 2% as both measures track up less than 1% from theMay average (vs. June typically up 5-10% sequentially, depending on the data source). As such,June spot rates appear to be trailing average seasonality through the first two weeks of themonth, though we note rates have historically ramped more into month-end ahead of the July 4holiday. Load/truck ratios reported by both data providers moderated sequentially but were uproughly 20% on a YoY basis. We also note that the somewhat-lagged butoften-citedCass TLLinehaul index suggested a less robust May pricing environment than some of the otherindicators we track, perhaps due to the index's weighting toward the contract market, whichwas less likely than the spot market to be impacted by International Roadcheck in the month.With respect to supply, FMCSA operating authorities decreased sequentially and has now beenrelatively rangebound for the past month. Price PerformanceExchange-Nasdaq52 Week rangeUSD 13.67-7.11 We also update estimates for Heartland Express.Similar to peers, Heartland’s first quarterwas negatively impacted by still-challenged freight market fundamentals, severe weather, andtariff-relateduncertainty among customers. Three of the carrier’s four major brands operated ata loss in the period, with results challenged enough to constrain debt paydown to the smallestquarterly amount since the 2022 acquisitions of Smith and CFI. While management called outearly signs of a potential market recovery, material improvements are not expected until later in2025. In the meantime, the company is taking action to downsize the fleet to better matchdemand and is also addressing the cost structure, with management looking to flip to operatingprofitability at a consolidated level over the next twelve months. We update our model to betterreflect the latest market fundamentals and company operating results, taking our 2Q25 and2025 estimates to 8c loss per share and 32c loss per share, respectively. Source: IDCLink to Barclays Live for interactive charting North America TransportationEric Morgan, CFA+1 212 526 9642eric.morgan@barclays.comBCI, US Please also see Figure 2 for a detailed heat map summarizing the latest trends for demand, supply,pricing, and volumes, as well as Figure 3 for detail on monthly LTL trends at a carrier level.Historical time series of our data sets can be found in Figures 4-18. Brandon R. Oglenski+1 212 526 8903brandon.oglenski@barclays.comBCI, US David Zazula, CFA+1 212 526 5108david.zazula@barclays.comBCI, US FIGURE 1. Summary of Incremental Trucking Data Points This Week Note: PMIs are shown as percent variance from 50 for illustrative purposes; PMI z-scores are based on the reporteddiffusionindex and represent the number of standarddeviations away from historical average index value.Source: Haver; Bloomberg; US Census; BEA; FRB; ISM; EIA; BLS; ATA; ITS; DAT; FTR; FMCSA; Cass; Barclays Research Historical Time Series of Key Trucking-Related Data FIGURE 4. US Retail Consumption Measures — Recent History Source: Haver; US Census; Barclays Research Source: Bloomberg; ITS; Barclays Research Source: Bloomberg; ITS; DAT; EIA; Cass; Barclays Research Source: Bloomberg; ATA; Barclays Research Source: Bloomberg; ATA; company reports and commentary; Barclays Research We value Heartland Express (HTLD) shares at $9 based on an EV multiple of 3.0x our 2027 (was2026) EBITDA estimate of $0.2bn averaged with a 15.0x P/E multiple on our 2027 EPS estimate of$0.62 (was 20.0x P/E multiple on our 2026 EPS estimate of $0.45). Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Brandon R. Oglenski and Eric Morgan, CFA, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly orindirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. Important Disclosures: Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT. Avail