Aedifica和Cofinimmo达成合并协议，重申对Aedifica的增持评级

Restricted - External COFB.BR/COFB BBUNDERWEIGHTEuropean Real EstateNEUTRALPrice TargetEUR 75.00Price (02-Jun-25)EUR 75.15Potential Upside/Downside-0.2%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchAOO.BR/AED BBOVERWEIGHTEuropean Real EstateNEUTRALPrice TargetEUR 74.00Price (02-Jun-25)EUR 66.20Potential Upside/Downside+11.8%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchEuropean Real EstateEleanor Frew, CFA+44 (0)20 3555 0748eleanor.frew@barclays.comBarclays, UKKanad Mitra+91 (0)22 6175 1793kanad.mitra@barclays.comBarclays, UKPaul May, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 1444paul.j.may@barclays.comBarclays, UK We still see the deal as accretive at this level, with EPS CAGR of 1.7% post synergies:Re-running our scenario analysis from our Aedifica upgrade for the new exchange ratio seespossible earnings accretion of 2.3%-5.9%. This is c.100bps lower than the scenario we ran withthe 1.16 exchange ratio, but EPS CAGR of 1.7% is only marginally below the 1.9% in thecorresponding scenario in the upgrade report. The rationale for our upgrade of Aedifica wasthat the company have returned to growth even before taking this merger into account, and inthe release this morning it was noted that "this integration willofferpotential to significantlyexpand their combined portfolio", and so further growth could come.FIGURE 1. EPS scenario analysis on guided synergies (for illustrative purposes)FY 2025 EFY 2026 EFY 2027 EFY 2028 EFY 2029 ECAGRAED published5.025.125.125.095.170.7%Simple pro forma5.025.235.255.165.190.8%Accretion0.0%2.3%2.5%1.4%0.3%Guided synergies5.025.235.425.335.361.7%Accretion0.0%2.3%5.9%4.8%3.7%Source: Barclays Research estimatesNext steps:The share issuance for the deal needs to be approved at an Aedifica EGM, likely tobe convened on or around 11 July 2025 (cancelling the original EGM scheduled for 12 June). Theprospectus is then expected to open for acceptance on or about 1 September 2025. 2 Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Kanad Mitra, Paul May, CFA and Eleanor Frew, CFA, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personalviews about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will bedirectly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues,a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities, the profitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of thefirm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset class covered by the analyst.Research analysts employed outside the US byaffiliatesof Barclays Capital Inc. are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Such non-US research analysts may not be associated persons of Barclays Capital Inc., which is a FINRA member, and therefore may not be subject to FINRA Rule2241 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst’s account.Analysts regularly conduct site visits to view the material operations of covered companies, but Barclays policy prohibits them from accepting paymentor reimbursement by any covered company of their travel expenses for such visits.Barclays Research Department produces various types of research including, but not limited to, fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis,quantitative analysis, and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of Barclays Research maydifferfrom those contained in other types ofBarclays Research, whether as a result ofdifferingtime horizons, methodologies, or otherwise.In order to access Barclays Statement regarding Research Dissemination Policies and Procedures, please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com/S/RD.htm. In order to access Barclays Research Conflict Management Policy Statement, please refer to: https://publicresearch.barclays.com/S/CM.htm.Primary Stocks (Ticker, Date, Price)Aedifica(AOO.BR, 02-Jun-2025, EUR 66.20), Overweight/Neutral, CD/JCofinimmo(COFB.BR, 02-Jun-2025, EUR 75.15), Underweight/Neutral, CD/J