美国化学品与包装行业公司管理问题集

Restricted - External U.S. ChemicalsPOSITIVEU.S. ChemicalsMichael Leithead, CFA+1 212 526 0018michael.leithead@barclays.comBCI, USNick Igneri+1 212 526 1632nicholas.igneri@barclays.comBCI, USAaron Acquah+1 212 526 7519aaronj.acquah@barclays.comBCI, US 5.Where does the Louisiana project currently stand? What is the timeframe under which you5.expect to secureoff-takesand determine the ability to de-scope the project? Is there stillpotential to outright cancel the project?6.For NEOM, how are discussions progressing with potential customers? Is it possible to de-6.scope or change the overall size of NEOM?7.As the company shrinks from mega-projects, how does APD drive growth? Can you speak to7.the remaining growth pipeline?8.How do you think about dividend growth going forward, and how does APD decide when to8.start repurchasing shares?9.How aretariffsand geopolitical risks impacting the cost structure and execution of your9.large-scale projects, particularly in regions like NEOM and Louisiana, and what specificstrategies are you deploying to mitigate these risks and ensure project profitability?10.Helium continues to appear weak. Can you talk about what you're seeing in that market10.coming out of earnings and your expectations for the rest of the year?Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP, Equal Weight, PT $4)Relevant Research:•1Q Review: Robust Start to Year Leads Outlook Higher; Deleveraging Still Will Take Some Time•(4/28/25)•CEO + CFO Meeting; Beverage Can Market Appears Healthy (9/10/24)•Relevant Questions:1.How have order books trended so far through April and May and are you seeing any1.potential pre-buying of inventories stemming from recenttariffinitiatives?2.How confident are you in a sustained volume recovery in North America and Europe, and2.what are you seeing in terms of customer reorders, promotional activity, and elasticity atthe shelf?3.With leverage still elevated, how are you balancing deleveraging with maintaining the3.dividend, and are you committed to the current payout level even if volumes disappoint?4.How do you plan to balance further organic growth initiatives vs. deleveraging4.opportunities?5.Over a 3-5 year horizon, what is your base-case algorithm for volume growth, pricing and5.EBITDA margin progression? What CAGR are you underwriting internally?6.How do youdifferentiateoperationally or strategically from CCK and BALL, and why should6.a customer or investor choose you over them?7.How exposed are you to macro-driven demand variability in Europe, and are you seeing any7.structuralshiftsin consumer behavior there?8.How are you evaluating opportunities in emerging markets and new product categories and8.what is the expected contribution of these areas to future growth?9.How have customers' can buying behaviorsshiftedover the past few years? Are you seeing9.any SKU rationalization or formatshifts?10.Are we still seeing substrateshiftfrom glass?10.2 Avery Dennison Corp. (AVY, Overweight, PT $210)Relevant Research:•1Q Review: Much Ado About Apparel (4/23/25)••Thoughts Ahead of 1Q Earnings + Recession Scenario Analysis (4/21/25)••'Quality compounder' is the label that sticks best; initiate at OW (10/7/24)•Relevant Questions:1.Following the guidance of Intelligent Labels growth being pulled for 2025, is there any more1.clarity you couldofferin terms of what you're seeing around apparel end-demand and otherexposed end-markets? What is the updated outlook for IL through the year?2.How is the company addressing the challenges in the Apparel segment, particularly with the2.MSD% revenue decline expected in 2Q'25? Are you starting to see Apparel shipments pickback upafterthetariffuncertainty?3.How comfortable is AVY with the current pipeline of RFID adoption initiatives? When do you3.expect that to translate back to a >15% growth year? And are there any competitiveconcerns around your value proposition to enable RFID adoption?4.In a subdued macro environment, can AVY continue to deliver ~LSD/MSD% organic growth4.in the Materials Group? What can you do to enable that? And when do you currently seerecovery in key end-markets like retail / apparel and consumer goods?5.M&A has been fairly light since 2021, with fairly balanced capital deployment between5.dividends, buybacks, and organic investment. Is there strategic M&A actively workingthrough the pipeline? Or will your excess cash predominantly go to repurchases and organicreinvestment?6.What are the some of the initiatives you have in place that will aid in reaching your ~17%6.adj. EBITDA margin target by 2028?7.High-value categories experienced HSD% y/y growth in Materials Group and +LSD% y/y7.growth in Solutions Group in 1Q'25. What factors contributed to this growth, and howsustainable is it in the coming quarters?8.With 1Q earnings, AVY guided increased its incremental savings from restructuring guide8.slightly to $45m+. What actions are you taking that allowed you to increase that guidance?9.How do you assess the competitive position within the g