2025年第一季度英国老年人住房市场更新

Delivery picks up…Some 6,380 new seniors housing units were added to supply in 2024, across119 schemes – representing a 4% increase on the previous year’s output. Thisgrowth occurred despite a decline in the number of standalone developments,reflecting a shift towards larger-scale projects. Around 10% of schemescompleted in 2024 comprised more than 100 units. The trend toward largerdevelopments is evident across the Seniors Housing sector, but IntegratedRetirement Communities (IRCs) continue to lead in terms of scale. IRCsremain a key focus for operators, investors, and lenders, underscoring theirgrowing importance in the market. Larger schemes also contribute to improvedoperational efficiency, which is critical for IRC operators committed to long-term service delivery.… led by IRCsThe UK Seniors Housing market has demonstrated steady growth over the pastfive years, with the total number of completed units rising by 4% – from 739,342to 769,280. IRCs have seen particularly strong growth, with supply in thissegment increasing by 11% over the same period. In 2019, IRCs accounted forless than one-fifth of the total supply; since then, they have represented half ofall Seniors Housing units delivered. Regionally, IRC delivery was concentratedin the South East (36%), followed by the North West (23%) and London (11%).A similar pattern was observed for Retirement Housing developments, wherethe South East again led with 21% of deliveries, followed by the West Midlandsand East of England. These regional trends largely align with population growthamong older age groups.Fig 2: IRCs taking a greater share of overall deliveryTotal unitsIRCRETIREMENT HOUSING2001200212,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,0000# OF UNITS Source: Knight Frank Research, EACFig 1: Supply increasing butoutpaced by demandSource: Knight Frank Research, EAC, ONS2006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232018201920202021202220232024SENIORS HOUSING UNITS – ANNUAL NETADDITIONS (CUMULATIVE)75+ POPULATION – ANNUAL NETADDITIONS (CUMULATIVE)85+ POPULATION – ANNUAL NETADDITIONS (CUMULATIVE) 200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017IRC AS A % OF TOTAL (RHS) RETIREMENT HOUSINGYEARSCHEMES201911320201092021602022852023102202475Total544Fig 3: Seniors Housing delivery v population growthLast five years (2019-2024)Table 1: Five-year growth in Seniors Housing supplyNorthernIrelandGrowth in 65+ population (2019-2024)160,000140,000120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,00001,000Future supply to riseDelivery is expected to increase. Based on estimated completion dates, nearly8,000 new seniors homes are expected to complete in 2025. Should this bethe case it will make 2025 the strongest for new delivery since 2018. Yet whiledelivery is expected to rise, it will remain chronically short of need. The 2022Mayhew Review recommended 50,000 new seniors housing units are builteach year to meet demand. As has been the case in recent years, IRCs areexpected to account for the largest share of delivery, accounting for 53% ofexpected completions. IRCSUNITSSCHEMESUNITS3,642493,0923,537331,9751,940392,8083,009574,1733,437452,6793,098443,28218,66326718,009South WestNorth EastTotal number of SH units delivered (2019-2024)2,0003,0004,0005,0006,000EastMidlandsLondonScotlandEast ofEnglandWestMidlandsWalesNorth West TOTALSCHEMESUNITS1626,7341425,512994,7481427,1821476,1161196,38081136,672Source: Knight Frank Research, EACSource: Knight Frank Research, EAC, ONS7,0008,0009,00010,000“Nearly 8,000 new seniorshomes are expected tocomplete in 2025.”South EastBUBBLE SIZE = TOTAL SH SUPPLY 44Table 2: A growing pipelineNumber of seniors housing units and developments granted full permission in 2024East MidlandsEast MidlandsLondonNorth EastNorthern IrelandNorth WestSouth EastSouth WestScotlandWest MidlandsWalesYorks and HumberUKShifting tenuresThe private rental market presents a significant opportunity for futuregrowth. Over the past five years, the number of Seniors Housing unitswith market rent as the primary tenure has increased by 24%. While still aminority, a growing number of schemes now incorporate a private rentalelement. This expansion reflects a broader shift in operator business models,with established players integrating rental tenures into their offerings. Therise in seniors renting also mirrors wider trends in the housing market:in 2008/09, only 14% of over-55s rented, compared to 20% in 2023/24,according to the English Housing Survey.Planning for the futureAnalysis of planning data shows that 244 new planning applications weresubmitted last year, with the potential to deliver more than 16,000 newunits. Meanwhile, some 230 schemes (13,478 homes) were granted fullplanning permission in 2024. Of the homes granted planning permissionlast year, 57% were located within IRCs. It takes the total pipeline of seniorshomes across the UK to 30,000 homes, of which nearly 13,000 are currentlyunder construction. The largest concentrations of pipeline in ter