工业硅、多晶硅周报

工业硅&多晶硅周度策略工业硅&多晶硅重点策略推荐策略单边：工业硅推荐逢高做空，主力预计下周盘面区间在6800-7300元/吨；多晶硅推荐反弹做空，预计下周盘面区间在33000-36000元/吨。跨期：关注仓单注册数量，PS2507/PS2508可择机介入反套策略；套保：推荐上游工业硅厂、多晶硅厂卖出套保策略。核心逻辑盘面逻辑：本周工业硅盘面整体呈下行态势，周五收于7160元/吨。现货市场价格亦下跌，本周多晶硅盘面宽幅震荡，下半周市场多交易上游工厂减产预期，盘面有小幅提升。周五收于35600元/吨。多晶硅现货市场来看，上游报价亦有下降，预计实际成交价将下降。现货逻辑：工业硅基本面来看，本周行业库存累库，西南+西北复产，现货下跌。多晶硅上游库存累库，上游工厂报价下调，关注后续签单情况。未来预期：工业硅弱势基本面，维持逢高空配观点。基本面来看，伴随本周供应端复产，整体行业库存继续累库。供应端，西北地区产量仍将继续增加，西南地区丰水期硅厂亦有复产驱动，此均能提供供应增量。需求端，下游维持刚需采购，多晶硅下个月部分工厂复产，对应采购量或有小提振，有机硅后续亦复产将带动采购体量，但需求端增量并无法改变整体基本面。成本端，伴随煤炭成本下探，工业硅生产成本亦有所坍塌。整体而言，工业硅行业仍面临着高库存的压力，此轮上游工厂的复产幅度超预期，将进一步加剧基本面弱势，后续工业硅盘面仍有下行驱动，建议关注库存变化。多晶硅期货亦维持逢高做空观点。从产业链角度，需求端抢装结束后边际回落，下游价格仍未见底，对硅料价格接受度并不高，下游排产逐月回落。市场消息称6月份新疆工厂复产、四川工厂复产，此将带来供应上的边际增量。整体多晶硅供增需弱状态，现货仍有进一步下行驱动，工厂报价亦有下调。本周五06合约投机空头减仓离场，月差有所走阔，但整体来看，在现货价格下移的大格局之下，仓单逻辑并无法成立，对盘面思路多以反弹逢高空思路为主。风险点1.光伏行业自律配额调整；2.硅料工厂联合超预期减产 工业硅数据周报I 各地工业硅牌号对盘面升贴水-1500-1000-50005001000元/吨华东553现货基差-2000-1500-1000-50005001000元/吨新疆553现货基差 工业硅价差季节性图02004006008001000120014001600180001-0201-1501-2802-1002-2303-0803-2104-0304-1704-3005-1605-2906-1106-2407-07421-441价差201820192023202405001000150020002500300001-0201-1501-2802-1002-2303-0803-2104-0304-1704-3005-1605-2906-1106-2407-07421与553价差(华东)2018201920232024 010203040506070809001-0101-1401-2702-0902-2103-0503-1503-2604-0504-1604-2605-0705-1705-2806-0906-2107-0307-1607-2908-11吨工业硅行业总库存（百川口径，含仓单）2020202120222023-10-50510152001-0101-1401-2702-0902-2103-0503-1503-2604-0504-1604-2605-0705-1705-2806-0906-2107-0307-1607-2908-11周工业硅周度库销比（百川口径）2020202120222023百川工业硅库存统计 01-1401-2502-0802-2203-0503-1503-2504-0404-1504-2505-0805-2006-0106-1206-2407-0707-1907-3008-1108-2309-0309-1409-2510-1310-2511-0511-1711-29中国工业硅社会库存（含仓单库存）20162017201820192020202120222023202420252023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-062024-072024-082024-092024-102024-112024-122025-012025-022025-032025-04交割库库存：浙江交割库库存：新疆交割库库存：天津交割库库存：四川交割库库存：上海交割库库存：昆明交割库库存：江苏交割库库存：广东SMM工业硅社会库存 02468101214161801-0101-1401-2602-1002-2403-0803-1903-3004-1104-2205-0605-1906-0106-1206-25万吨工业硅港口库存20162017201820212022202301234567891001-0101-1401-2602-1002-2403-0803-1903-3004-1104-2205-0605-1906-0106-1206-25万吨工业硅港口库存：昆明201620172018202120222023SMM工业硅港口库存 00.511.522.532023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-062024-072024-082024-092024-102024-112024-12万吨样本企业库存:云南(30%样本率)0510152025303501-0301-1702-0202-1402-2303-0303-1403-2203-3104-1104-1904-2805-1005-1905-2906-0906-2307-0707-2108-0408-1809-0109-15万吨样本企业库存:合计202320242025SMM工业硅样本企业库存 期货交易面（价格、基差、资金及持仓） 工业硅期货价格及基差指标名称华东通氧Si5530现货价华东Si4210(有机硅用)现货价期货近月收盘价现货Si5530升贴水2025/5/30830010400714011602025/5/29845010500719512552025/5/28850010600731011902025/5/27850010600741510852025/5/26860010700758010202025/5/2386501080078857652025/5/2286501080078607902025/5/2187001090078408602025/5/2088001090079108902025/5/1989501100081108402025/5/169100110008390710-2000-1500-1000-500050010001500200025003000元/吨工业硅现货升贴水现货Si5530升贴水现货Si4210升贴水现货Si4410升贴水 工业硅期货与有色及黑色板块演绎情况-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%有色板块主力合约价格累计涨跌幅铜铝锌铅硅00.511.522.5301-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-1908-3109-1209-2410-1310-2511-0611-1811-3012-1212-24铝硅比20152016201720182019202020212022202320242025 工业硅期货成交、持仓量ths_open_interest_futureSI00.GFE时间工业硅连续2025/05/305,100.00002025/05/2911,933.00002025/05/2816,808.00002025/05/2721,749.00002025/05/2629,331.00002025/05/2336,304.00002025/05/2244,570.00002025/05/2152,428.00002025/05/2064,706.00002025/05/190.00002025/05/1617.00002025/05/15186.00002025/05/14247.00002025/05/13138.0000ths_vol_futureSI00.GFE时间工业硅连续2025/05/3010,080.00002025/05/2917,204.00002025/05/2860,981.00002025/05/2728,105.00002025/05/2649,942.00002025/05/2343,394.00002025/05/22108,957.00002025/05/2190,621.00002025/05/20128,058.00002025/05/19150.00002025/05/1637.00002025/05/150.00002025/05/14162.00002025/05/1356.0000 工业硅各期货合约持仓量工业硅各期货合约成交量SI01.GFESI02.GFE工业硅连一工业硅连二工业硅连三208,497.000051,218.0000240,727.0000224,146.000050,370.0000231,391.0000226,069.000046,754.0000223,231.0000227,207.000046,638.0000220,814.0000206,212.000042,780.0000210,554.0000178,384.000039,920.0000196,924.0000183,690.000042,362.0000199,042.0000192,802.000042,496.0000196,537.0000173,527.000041,102.0000182,700.000075,030.0000155,038.000038,037.0000101,970.0000138,422.000037,652.0000124,014.0000102,948.000034,630.0000146,525.0000100,806.000033,918.0000162,299.000096,846.000034,563.0000SI01.GFESI02.GFE工业硅连一工业硅连二工业硅连三456,239.000036,742.0000200,962.0000539,683.000038,560.0000242,486.0000624,841.0000122,008.0000315,299.0000360,878.000053,935.0000200,269.0000276,011.000045,126.0000133,529.0000284,155.000025,841.0000136,191.0000208,397.000078,539.000085,347.0000235,779.000048,012.0000104,750.0000199,473.000032,072.0000105,731.0000264,597.0000209,508.0000177,695.0000242,929.0000254,754.000094,898.0000209,778.0000214,418.0000181,788.0000382,636.0000181,300.0000152,559.0000330,600.0000174,980.0000172,103.0000 工业硅期货资金流量监控日期当日资金流向2025/5/30-45992025/5/292025/5/28-53932025/5/