顺丰同城（9699 hk）买入：在渗透率上升和整合中盈利增长将加速

Issuer of report:HSBC Qianhai Securities LimitedView HSBC Qianhai Securities Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comListen to our insightsFind out moreHSBC Global Research PodcastsMAINTAIN BUYTARGET PRICE(HKD)PREVIOUS TARGET(HKD)14.0014.30SHARE PRICE(HKD)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE10.82+29.4%(as of23 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(HKDm)8,034Free floatMarket cap (USDm)1,026BBG3m ADTV (USDm)3RICFINANCIALS AND RATIOS(CNY)Year to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026eHSBC QH EPS0.140.28HSBC QH EPS prev0.130.29Change (%)8.2-1.9Consensus EPS0.150.29PE(x)68.735.3Dividend yield (%)0.00.0EV/EBITDA (x)38.817.9ROE (%)4.38.152-WEEK PRICE(HKD)Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC Qianhai Securities estimatesDavid Wu* (Reg. No. S1700518110001)Head, A-share Transportation & Logistics ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limiteddavid.wu@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 21 5066 2002William Sun*, CFA (Reg. No. S1700522110001)Analyst, A-share Transportation & LogisticsHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedwilliam.x.d.sun@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 21 5066 2061* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesAirFreight & LogisticsChina05/2411/24Target price: 14.00High: 12.60 Low: 7.64 Current: 10.82 ◆◆◆ 25%9699 HK9699.HK12/2027e0.390.490.40na-2.5na0.450.6425.620.10.00.011.48.210.211.66.8010.9015.0005/25 2Financial statementsYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026eProfit & loss summary(CNYm)Revenue15,74620,25924,656EBITDA155317460Depreciation & amortisation-62-72-87Operating profit/EBIT93245373Net interest292834PBT145303445HSBC QianhaiPBT145303445Taxation-13-46-89Net profit132258356HSBC Qianhainet profit132258356Cash flow summary(CNYm)Cash flow from operations260408482Capex-47-88-131Cash flow from investment-47-88-131Dividends000Change in net debt532-338-404FCF equity213321350Balance sheet summary(CNYm)Intangible fixed assets357345336Tangible fixed assets4169121Current assets4,2724,8555,656Cash & others1,3701,7072,111Total assets4,6705,2686,113Operating liabilities1,7092,0502,539Gross debt000Net debt-1,370-1,707-2,111Shareholders' funds3,0403,2983,654Invested capital1,5911,5111,463Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026eY-o-y % changeRevenue27.128.721.7EBITDA193.6105.145.2Operating profit164.652.2PBT131.6109.346.6HSBC QianhaiEPS166.494.738.0Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)11.813.116.6ROIC9.215.922.8ROE4.38.110.2ROA3.05.26.3EBITDA margin1.01.61.9Operating profit margin0.61.21.5EBITDA/net interest (x)Netdebt/equity-45.0-51.8-57.8Net debt/EBITDA (x)-8.9-5.4-4.6CF from operations/net debtPer share data(CNY)EPS Rep (diluted)0.140.280.39HSBC QianhaiEPS (diluted)0.140.280.39DPS0.000.000.00Book value3.313.603.98Financials & valuation:SF Intra-City Estimate changesWe raise our last-mile delivery revenue estimates by22% in 2025 and32% in 2026, as weexpectSF Intra-Citytodelivermore last-mile orders for SF Express.We raise ouron-demanddelivery revenue estimates by4% inboth2025 and 2026, as weare moreoptimisticabout ordervolumegrowthinon-demand delivery. In all, we raise our total revenue estimates by 11% in2025 and by 15% in 2026.We lower unit operation cost estimates by 1% in 2025 and by 3% in 2026 giventhescaleeffect.Also consideringestimatechanges in order volumes, we raise our total cost estimates by 12%in 2025 andby16% in 2026.Above all, we revise down our 2025and 2026 net profit estimates by 4%each. Weintroduceour 2027net profit estimate of RMB452m in this note.Exhibit1.Estimate changes_____________2025e__________________________2026e____________(RMBm)RevenueLast-mile deliveryrevenueOf which: from SF Holding–Independent third partyOn-demand delivery revenueOf which:from SF Holding–Independent third partyTotal revenueCostsLabour outsourcing costsEmployee benefit expensesTotal costsUnit operation cost (RMB)Gross marginAdministrative expense ratioSelling expense ratioEBITDANet profitEPS (RMB)Source: HSBC Qianhai Securities estimatesWherewedifferfrom consensusOur 2026-27net profit estimates arebelowconsensus, as weexpectlast-mile orderswith lowermarginswill account for a larger share of thecompany’srevenue.SF Intra-City’s share pricehas risen 12% since December 2024 (vs the HSI up 22%during the same period).We believeour moreconversativeview on itsfundamentals isalready priced in.Exhibit2.Estimate changesHSBC Qianhai Securities estimates(RMBm)2025e2026eRevenue20,25924,656Net profit258356Source: HSBC Qianhai Securities estimates 32027eOldNewChangeOldNewChangeNew7,2368,82322%8,45311,15032%13,6336,9178,51223%8,08110,78733%13,201318311-2%372364-2%43210,97111,4364%13,02413,5054%15,68537847024%49261124%76410,59310,9654%12,53312,8943%14,92118,20620,25911%21,47724,65615%29,31816,79318,69411%19,82922,72715%27,04760977928%61389846%1,01017,40219,47312%20,44223,62516%28,0574.884.87-1%4.874.712-3%4.6076.3%6.6%0.3ppt5.9%6.1%0.2ppt5.7%3.3%3.5%0.2ppt2.8%3.0%0.2ppt2.6%1.2%1.3%0.1ppt1.0%1.1%0.1ppt1.0%330317-4%476460-3%583268258-4%371356-4%4520.290.28-2%0.40.39-3%0.49____Bloomberg consensus_____________Difference__________2027e2025e202