2025年第一季度公司收益记分卡

Restricted - External Credit StrategyDominique Toublan+1 212 412 3841dominique.toublan@barclays.comBCI, USBradford Elliott, CFA+1 212 526 6704bradford.elliott@barclays.comBCI, USCorry Short+1 212 526 6253corry.short@barclays.comBCI, USJack Sweeney+1 212 526 5729jack.sweeney@barclays.comBCI, USFundamental Credit ResearchHale Holden+1 212 412 1524hale.holden@barclays.comBCI, USAndrew Keches, CFA+1 212 412 5248andrew.keches@barclays.comBCI, USPriya Ohri-Gupta, CFA+1 212 412 3759priya.ohrigupta@barclays.comBCI, US Quarter in reviewFIGURE 5. % of Companies with Score of 1 or 2 on Earnings Scorecard (ie, the weakest performers)Source: Barclays ResearchFIGURE 6. % of Companies with Score of 4 or 5 on Earnings Scorecard (ie, the best performers)31%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%Cyclical% of Companies withScore of 4 or 5on Earnings ScorecardSource: Barclays Research 26%30%30%FinancialNon-cyclicalOverallQ1 24Q2 24Q3 24Q4 24Q1 25 Figure 9 shows the strongest and weakest earnings reports so far for the current cycle in ouranalysts' opinions. Figure 10 shows the percentage of positive/negative earnings surprises in the S&P 500.FIGURE 10. Percentage of positive/negative earnings surprises in the S&P 500Source: Bloomberg. Barclays Research Investment GradeIG Media & Cable/A&D: Andrew Keches, CFA | +1 212 412 5248 | BCI, USFIGURE 11. ScorecardIssuerScore (1-5)Comments on notable earnings, guidance, and moversFox Corp(FOXA)4It was another strong quarter from Fox, which delivered a strong beat for F3Q25 on EBITDA and overallrevenue. Advertising increased sharply in the quarter, due to theeffectof hosting Super Bowl LIX, thoughthe big focus of the call was the announcement of the name of its new streaming platform, Fox One,which is scheduled to launch ahead of NFL season. All linear subscribers will get a sign-in for free to avoidcannibalization and cord-cutting acceleration, and the company said that it will be entering into anumber of bundles with other steaming services at launch.Not Covered credits indicated with *.Source: Company filings/presentations, Barclays ResearchIG Consumer/Retail : Priya Ohri-Gupta, CFA | +1 212 412 3759 | BCI, USFIGURE 12. ScorecardIssuerScore (1-5)Comments on notable earnings, guidance, and moversWalmart (WMT)3While the company posted a first-quarter beat andreaffirmedFY guidance, it expects volatility anduncertainty to weigh on quarterly EBIT performance in 2Q-4Q; as such, while it gave 2Q comp guidancethat pointed to a similar pace as 1Q, it refrained from providing EBIT growth or EPS guidance for thequarter. This is due totariffsand related inventory accounting (on the general merchandise side and FIFOaccounting for its consumables business), which will beaffectedby the timing of receipts, given themagnitude oftariffchanges in a short time. The company reported better-than-expected results, with EPSof $0.61 representing a 3c EPS beat; US comp growth of 4.5%; and EBIT growth of 4%, to $7.1bn. Adjustedleverage rose 0.1x sequentially, to 1.3x on a gross basis and 1.1x net, reflecting $7.1bn of incrementaldebt. FCF was a use of $1.46bn, and the company also bought back $4.56bn worth of stock.JBS (JBSSBZ)4The first quarter was ahead of consensus expectations, with sales of $19.5bn above the consensus of$19.2bn and EBITDA of $1.53bn in line. The quarter was underpinned by stronger-than-expected EBITDAmargins in Seara and US pork, which, when combined with the strength of PPC's previously reportedfigures, more thanoffsetasofterperformance in US beef. Net leverage was 1.99x, a sequential seasonalincrease of 0.1x, which was significantly better y/y. The company expects sometariff-relatedpressure in2Q, given the strained export relationship with China relative to its US beef and pork businesses.Not Covered credits indicated with *.Source: Company filings/presentations, Barclays Research19 May 2025 High YieldHY Utilities: Srinjoy Banerjee | +1 212 526 3521 | BCI, USFIGURE 13. ScorecardIssuerScore (1-5)NRG Energy(NRG)Not Covered credits indicated with *.Source: Company filings/presentations, Barclays ResearchHY Metals & Mining/Paper & Packing/Chemicals: Ed Brucker, CFA | +1 212 526 4435 | BCI, USFIGURE 14. ScorecardIssuerScore (1-5)Novolex(NOVHOL)*Solenis(SOLEIN)*Trident(TEKNI)*MauserPackaging(BWY)Novelis(HNDLIN)*Vibrantz(PRIMIN)*Hudbay(HBMCN)Not Covered credits indicated with *.Source: Company filings/presentations, Barclays Research19 May 2025 Comments on notable earnings, guidance, and movers2Large acquisition of Lightning Power implies ~$6.4bn of additional issuance split between IG secured andHY unsecured. Higher leverage at the onset post-acquisition close.Comments on notable earnings, guidance, and movers1NOVHOL reported disappointing earnings, with adjusted EBITDA missing estimates. The latter was drivenby lower volumes and higher manufacturing costs, while lower prices due to raw material pass-throughalsoaffectedresults.2SOLEIN performance was largely in line with our expectations, though reve