内联1Q25结果；人工智能货币化

FY25E141,85120,115.24.674.6011.0 Target PriceHK$80.00Up/Downside64.1%Current PriceHK$48.75China InternetSaiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hkWentao LU, CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hkYe TAO, CFAfranktao@cmbi.com.hkJoanna Ma(852) 3761 8838joannama@cmbi.com.hkStock DataMkt Cap (HK$ mn)209,868.8Avg 3 mths t/o (HK$ mn)2,924.252w High/Low (HK$)66.35/38.15Total Issued Shares (mn)Source: FactSetShareholdingStructureSource: HKExShare PerformanceAbsoluteRelative-3.9%-9.0%2.1%Source: FactSet12-mth Price PerformanceSource: FactSet 4305.0Tencent15.8%Su Hua10.0%1-mth-9.7%3-mth-7.7%6-mth-15.4% FY26EFY27E153,470163,91823,730.026,516.85.516.165.446.489.18.0 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGEBusiness forecasts updateand valuationFigure1:Kuaishou:forecast revisionCurrent(RMBmn)FY25EFY26EFY27EFY25ERevenue141,851153,470163,918141,738Gross profit79,00987,45295,53278,909Operating profit19,54823,91528,10419,549Adjusted net profit20,11523,73026,51720,115Adjusted EPS (RMB)4.75.56.24.7Grossmargin55.7%57.0%58.3%55.7%Operating margin13.8%15.6%17.1%13.8%Adjusted net margin14.2%15.5%16.2%14.2%Source: CMBIGM estimatesFigure2: CMBIGM estimates vs consensusCMBIGM(RMBmn)FY25EFY26EFY27EFY25ERevenue141,851153,470163,918141,496Gross profit79,00987,45295,53278,514Operating profit19,54823,91528,10419,397Adjusted net profit20,11523,73026,51720,208Adjusted EPS (RMB)4.75.56.24.6Gross margin55.7%57.0%58.3%55.5%Operating margin13.8%15.6%17.1%13.7%Adjusted net margin14.2%15.5%16.2%14.3%Source: Bloomberg, CMBIGM estimatesFigure3:Kuaishou:quarterlyfinancials(RMBmn)2Q233Q234Q231Q242Q24Live streaming revenue9,9689,71910,0488,5759,302yoy%16.4%8.6%0.1%-8.0%-6.7%Online marketing services14,34714,69018,20316,65017,515yoy%30.4%26.8%20.6%27.4%22.1%Other servicesrevenue3,4293,5394,3104,1834,158yoy%61.5%36.5%36.2%47.6%21.3%Total revenue27,74427,94832,56129,40830,975yoy%27.9%20.8%15.1%16.6%11.6%Average DAUs376387383394395yoy%8.3%6.4%4.5%5.2%5.1%Gross profit margin (%)50.2%51.7%53.1%54.8%55.3%S&M expenseratio (%)31.1%32.0%31.3%31.9%32.4%R&D expense ratio (%)11.4%10.6%10.1%9.7%9.1%Adjusted net margin (%)9.7%11.4%13.4%14.9%15.1%Adjusted netincome2,6943,1734,3624,3884,679Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGEOur SOTP-derived target price of HK$80.0comprises, per share:1) HK$9.7for thelive streamingbusiness, based on1.0x 2025EEV/Sales, which isapremium overtheaverageEV/Salesfor its peers(0.7x EV/sales), mainly due to the moreresilient growth outlook of Kuaishou’s live streaming business.2) HK$23.4for theonline marketingbusiness(excl. closed-loop marketing), based on14x2025EEV/EBIT, which ison parwith theaverageEV/EBITfor its peers.3) HK$39.7for thee-commercebusiness, based on0.10x 2025EEV/GMV. The targetmultipleisa discount to theaverageEV/GMVfor its peers(0.13x 2025E EV/GMV), giventhe relatively low monetization level of Kuaishou’s e-commerce business.4) HK$7.2for net cash.Figure4:Kuaishou: SOTP valuation(RMBmn)25E Rev/EBIT/GMV MethodologyLive streaming38,265EV/SalesAdvertising (excl. closed-loop marketing)6,617EV/EBITE-commerce1,569,418EV/GMVEnterprise ValueNet cashEquity ValueExchange rate (RMB/HK$)Target Value (HK$mn)Target Price (HK$)Source: Company data,CMBIGM estimatesFigure5: Peer comparison:live streaming,advertising, ande-commercesectorsCompaniesTickerPrice (LC)FY25ELive streamingRevenue growth (YoY%)BiliBiliBILI US18.915Hello GroupMOMO US6.1(3)HuyaHUYA US3.75AverageAdvertisingEBIT growth (YoY%)BaiduBIDU US83.8(13)Focus Media002027 CH7.66MetaMETA US627.111AlphabetGOOG US169.615AverageE-commerceGMV Growth (YoY%)AlibabaBABA US120.77JD.comJD US33.411PinduoduoPDD US119.215AverageSource:Bloomberg,CMBIGM estimatesNote:Dataas of market close on26May MultipleValuationAs % oftotal1.0x38,26514.0x92,6420.10x156,942287,84928,361316,2100.92343,70680.00FY26E93425913115510 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGEDisclosures& DisclaimersAnalyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities andFuturesCommission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed c