阿里巴巴健康信息技术有限公司（241 HK）被下调至持有评级：优先考虑利润增长

Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited, Singapore BranchView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comHSBC Global Research Podcasts| Listen to our insightsDOWNGRADE TO HOLDTARGET PRICE(HKD)PREVIOUS TARGET(HKD)4.505.50SHARE PRICE(HKD)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE4.89-8.0%(as of20 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(HKDm)78694.80Free floatMarket cap (USDm)10061.47BBG3m ADTV (USDm)97.84RICFINANCIALS AND RATIOS(CNY)Year to03/2025a03/2026e03/2027eHSBC EPS0.120.150.19HSBC EPS (prev)0.130.160.21Change (%)-7.0-11.1-9.6Consensus EPS0.130.150.18PE (x)37.330.923.3Dividend yield (%)0.00.00.0EV/EBITDA (x)37.626.817.7ROE (%)12.613.415.452-WEEK PRICE(HKD)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesCharlene Liu*Head of Internet and Gaming Research, Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited,Singapore Branchcharlene.r.liu@hsbc.com.sg+65 6658 0615Jessie Lu*, CFAAnalyst, Internet and Gaming ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedjessie.x.lu@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6570Lauren Cai*AssociateGuangzhou* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesHealth Care Providers &SrvcsChina05/2411/2405/25Target price: 4.50High: 6.15 Low: 2.75 Current: 4.89 ◆◆◆ Find out more30%241 HK0241.HK03/2028e0.25nana0.1918.40.012.316.52.304.456.60 2Financial statementsYear to03/2025a03/2026e03/2027e03/2028eProfit & loss summary(CNYm)Revenue30598.2933381.0837191.9641008.48EBITDA1518.222015.512851.743742.74Depreciation & amortisation-39.69-17.85-11.86-8.86Operating profit/EBIT1478.531997.662839.883733.88Net interest-2.61-2.61-2.61-2.61PBT1559.972469.393332.114270.11HSBC PBT1559.972469.393332.114270.11Taxation-127.95-246.94-333.21-427.01Net profit1432.432222.872999.313843.51HSBC net profit1949.672355.053127.173966.83Cash flow summary(CNYm)Cash flow from operations1047.732633.743373.544229.37Capex-6.00-6.00-6.00-6.00Cash flow frominvestment-2596.48-5.36-5.36-5.36Dividends-0.00-0.00-0.00-0.00Change in net debt1716.89-2650.90-3390.71-4246.53FCF equity1041.732627.743367.544223.37Balance sheet summary(CNYm)Intangible fixed assets1086.071086.071086.071086.07Tangible fixed assets69.7257.7451.7548.76Current assets12260.1314765.1118420.5722902.76Cash & others7836.2210487.1213877.8318124.36Total assets21162.3724017.8027773.5432363.56Operating liabilities2877.323141.083479.993810.51Gross debt0.000.000.000.00Net debt-7836.22-10487.12-13877.83-18124.36Shareholders' funds16312.1818759.5821983.4326051.47Invested capital2702.392280.722200.572102.71Ratio, growth and per shareanalysisYear to03/2025a03/2026e03/2027e03/2028eY-o-y % changeRevenue13.29.111.410.3EBITDA120.432.841.531.2Operating profit131.035.142.231.5PBT66.158.334.928.2HSBC EPS18.420.632.826.9Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)13.713.416.619.1ROIC60.872.2114.1156.2ROE12.613.415.416.5ROA7.09.811.612.8EBITDA margin5.06.07.79.1Operating profit margin4.86.07.69.1EBITDA/net interest (x)581.9772.51093.01434.6Netdebt/equity-48.0-55.9-63.1-69.6Net debt/EBITDA (x)-5.2-5.2-4.9-4.8CF from operations/net debtPer share data(CNY)EPS Rep (diluted)0.090.140.190.24HSBC EPS (diluted)0.120.150.190.25DPS0.000.000.000.00Bookvalue1.011.161.361.61Valuation dataYear toEV/salesEV/EBITDAEV/ICPE*PBFCF yield (%)Dividend yield (%)* Based on HSBC EPS (diluted)ESGmetricsEnvironmental IndicatorsGHG emission intensityEnergy intensityCO2reduction policySocial IndicatorsEmployee costs as % of revenuesEmployee turnover (%)Diversity policySource: Companydata, HSBC*GHG intensity and energy intensity are measuredin kg and kWhrespectivelyagainst revenuein USD ‘000sIssuer informationShare price(HKD)Target price(HKD)RIC(Equity)Bloomberg (Equity)Market cap(USDm)Price relativeSource: HSBCNote:Priced at close of 20 May 2025Financials & valuation:Alibaba Health Info Ltd ValuationMethodology: DCFapproach.Assumptions: We assume an unchanged risk-free rate of3.75%, market risk premium of 5.75% to factor in the latestHSBC equity strategy views, cost of debt of 4.0% (based onthecompany’s historical borrowing costs), target D/E of 0.36(basedon Bloomberg). We usea beta of 1.5 which isbased onBloombergdata. We also apply an unchangedregulatory riskpremium of 0.51% to reflect theregulatoryuncertainties. Wearrive at an unchangedWACC of 12.1%. We then apply anunchangedterminal growthrate of 3%.We also updated HKD/RMB by end-2025 to 1.06(from 1.05)based on HSBC FX team’s latest estimates.Afterfactoringin ourestimate changes, wecuttheTP toHKD4.50 (from HKD5.50),which implies8%downside. Wedowngradethe stock to Hold(fromBuy)ratingaswe thinkvaluation is fair at 31x FY26e PEand therearea lack ofcatalystsin the near term. Risksto our viewIndustry risks:(1) regulatory changesaroundtelemedicine; (2) implementation speed ofpolicies attheprovincial level could be slow; (3)slower/faster-than-expected prescription outflows; (4) user adoption; and(5)any form ofoutbreaks which precipitate newlockdowns andimpacted the supply chain and logistics.Downside