信和置业（83 HK）评级下调至持有：盈利压力加剧

Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking CorporationLimitedView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comHSBC Global Research Podcasts| Listen to our insightsDOWNGRADE TO HOLDTARGET PRICE(HKD)8.50SHARE PRICE(HKD)8.00(as of23 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(HKDm)Market cap (USDm)3m ADTV (USDm)FINANCIALS AND RATIOS(HKD)Year toHSBC EPSHSBC EPS (prev)Change (%)Consensus EPSPE (x)Dividend yield (%)52-WEEK PRICE(HKD)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesRaymond Liu*, CFAAnalyst, Asia Real Estate and ConglomeratesThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedraymond.w.m.liu@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6743Michelle Kwok*Head of Asia Real Estate and HK Equity ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedmichellekwok@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6918Ganesh Siva*AssociateBangalore* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesREMDHong Kong05/24Target price: 8.50 ◆◆◆ PREVIOUS TARGET(HKD)10.90UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE+6.3%73,201Free float9,353BBG9RIC06/2024a06/2025e06/2026e0.620.600.560.620.660.690.0-9.4-19.50.650.600.6013.013.414.47.37.37.311/24High: 8.91 Low: 7.41 Current: 8.00 Find out more45%83 HK0083.HK06/2027e0.530.65-19.30.6115.27.37.208.159.1005/25 2Financial statementsYear to06/2024a06/2025e06/2026eProfit & loss summary (HKDm)Property sales revenue3,5805,133Property investment & other revenue5,1855,275Cost of sales(5,344)(5,835)SG&A(1,084)(1,138)Other income and gains(310)15Operating profit including gains2,0273,450Net interest expense2,2972,025Associates & JCEs639647Revaluation gains(193)(260)PBT4,7705,863Taxation(519)(936)Minority interests151(136)Net profit4,4024,791Net impact of revaluation and disposals(769)(421)Core profit5,1715,212Cash flow summary (HKDm)Net cash flow from operations3,070(581)(2,338)Capex(496)(155)Other investing activities(8,343)7New share issue02,858Dividends paid(1,027)(2,307)Otherfinancing activities818(1,364)Net change in cash(7,110)(574)(5,306)Cash at the beginning53,52346,417Cash at the end46,41745,843Balance sheet summary (HKDm)Shareholders’ funds165,790171,553173,961Long-term liabilities832832Minority interests526662Deferred items2,7572,812Total capital employed172,526177,116179,743Fixed assets68,07968,388Other assets41,83042,477Current assets70,43575,769Total assets180,344186,634189,285Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to06/2024a06/2025e06/2026ey-o-y changeRevenue-26%19%PBT-29%23%Reported EPS-25%9%HSBC EPS-15%1%Ratios (%)ROIC ex exceptionals2%2%ROAE ex exceptionals3%3%ROAA ex exceptionals3%3%Operating margin50%53%Core profit margin59%50%Interest cover ex exceptionals (x)48.251.2Net debt(cash)/equity-27%-26%PB (x)0.40.4PE (x)13.013.4Dividend yield7.3%7.3%Per share data (HKD)Reported EPS0.520.55HSBC EPS0.620.60DPS0.580.58Source: Company data, HSBC estimatesFinancials & valuation: Sino Land Highlight in chartsFig1. Underlying earnings (HKDbn)Source:Company data, HSBC estimatesFig3.Recurringprofithas been relativelystable(HKDbn)Source:Company data, HSBC Recurring income refers to operating profit ofdivisionsFig 5. SinoLandcurrently trades at a c59%NAV discountSource: Company data, LSEG Datastream, HSBCestimates024681012FY19FY20FY21FY22FY230.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.5FY15FY16FY17FY18FY19BillionsProperty rentalProperty management-70%-65%-60%-55%-50%-45%Jan-19Aug-20Mar-22% to NAVMean Source: Company data, Bloomberg,LSEG Datastream,HSBCestimates Growing risks of downward earnings revisionsWe view Sino asavalue defensive stockthatwould be well positioned amid a globaltradeuncertainty. Its strong balance sheet and stable recurring income position it well to navigatemarketuncertaintiesand capitaliseonany futureopportunities.However, we seeahigh risk ofconsensusearningscutsgivenlikelylower interest incomedue to falling rates,cappingnear-termupside, in our view.Sino Land hada net cash position of HKD45.9bnas at December 2024.Over the past two years, itsinterest income saw a good improvement due tothehigher interest rate environment,and weestimate its interest rate reachedaround5% in the last reporting period. However, with rates nowtrending down, we believe Sino Land’s interest income could come under pressure givenits highcashbalance.Alower rate environmentcouldmeaningfullyreduce its interest incomein the comingyears,which served as a buffer during periods oflower profitability in itsproperty salesbusiness.Weseedownside risk toearningsweighing,on investor sentiment.Fig 7. 1-month HIBORFig 8. Sino Land’sreturn on interestincomeislikelytocome underpressureSource:Bloomberg, HSBCSource: Company data, HSBCFig 9. Net(debt)/cash position of companiesunder coverage(HKDbn)(end Dec-24)Fig 10. Net gearing position of companiesunder coverage (end Dec-2024)CKH (1HK, HKD45.10,Buy),HLD (12 HK, HKD24.30, Hold), NWD (17 HK, HKD4.72,Reduce), SHKP (16 HK, HKD81.45, Buy), Swire Pac (19 HK, HKD67.40, Buy), JM (JMSP, USD45.03, Buy), MTR Corp (66 HK, HKD26.40, Hold), Kerry Prop (683 HK,HKD19.40, Buy), HLP