V和MA闪电轮专家电话会议探讨欧洲、COF DFS、央行数字货币、中国相关问题

Trevor Williams * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1546 | twilliams3@jefferies.comAlexander Glockner * | Equity Associate+1 (415) 229-8729 | aglockner@jefferies.comRyan Levine * | Equity Associate+1 (415) 229-1512 | rlevine4@jefferies.com •MA in China:domestic opportunity viewed skeptically, but should provide modest advantagein competing for co-brand relationships (cards in China need either V or MA for outboundcross-border acceptance).•Digital Euro/CBDCs:lack of identifiable retail use-cases make the prospect less threatening.•State-level interchange regulation worth monitoringwith some states moving to exempttaxes/tips from interchange.Continued inside the report.Please see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Domestic license in China provides some competitive advantage for co-branding (to captureChina outbound cross-border volume).The domestic opportunity was downplayed (Alipay /WeChat Pay are ubiquitous, CUP share difficult to eat into with major issuers all state-owned), butlikely provides a modest advantage for MA relative to V in their competition for co-brands (Chinesecards need for cross-border utility) due to having a more positive political perception (MA haslicensed tech to UnionPay, generally perceived as more friendly to China).Digital Euro likely to launch, but value proposition is unclear.The launch of a digital Euro is viewedas inevitable, but does not present a clear value proposition given Europe's payment systems arealready well developed. Further, uptake will be challenged by the fact that utility requires widespreadusage/acceptance by consumers/merchants. However, a digital Euro launched by the EuropeanCentral Bank would have nearly unlimited resources and regulatory power supporting it, providing agreater likelihood of success vs. previous private attempts, such as EPI's Wero.US state attempts at regulating interchange worth keeping an eye on. Illinois recently passedlegislation banning interchange on sales taxes and gratuities, which goes into effect in July '25,but is currently being challenged. The regulation presents potential technical issues - with gratuityand sales tax data often not captured/reported at the POS. More states (Texas, Georgia, D.C.) havefollowed with similar legislation.Please see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company Valuation/RisksAdyen N.V.Our PT is based on our DCF analysis. Risks to our price target include slowdown in volume growth due to increased competition, macro, and failedadoption of new product launches (embedded finance), and disruption by mega-tech insourcing payments.Fidelity National Information Services, Inc.Our $80 price target is based on a ~13x P/E multiple on our FY26 EPS estimate. Risks include macro, regulatory, competition, and consolidationGlobal Payments, Inc.Our $75 price target is based on ~5x our pro-forma 2026E adj EPS estimate. Risks include macro, consumer spending, regulatory environment,competition.Analyst Certification:I, Trevor Williams, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.I, Alexander Glockner, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report.I, Ryan Levine, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receivescompensation based in part on the overall performance of the firm, including investment banking income. We seek to update our research as appropriate, butvarious regulations may prevent us from doing so. Aside from certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are publishedat irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgement.Investment Recommendation Record(Article 3(1)e and Article 7 of MAR)Recommendation PublishedRecommendation DistributedCompany Specific DisclosuresWithin the past twelve months, Jefferies Financial Group Inc. and/or its