拉尔夫·劳伦（RL）：品牌动力强劲，执行有力；指引谨慎

2024A2025A2026E6,631.07,079.07,284.010.3112.3313.50--7,339.1--13.54 2027E7,643.015.447,694.515.16 Ashley Helgans * | Equity Analyst(212) 336-7367 | ahelgans@jefferies.comBlake Anderson, CFA * | Equity Associate(212) 323-7686 | banderson2@jefferies.comBryan Pinedo, CFA * | Equity Associate+1 (917) 421-1958 (office) | bpinedo@jefferies.com The Long View: Ralph LaurenInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferRalph Lauren stands out among fashion brands given its heritage of qualityand timeless style, diversified portfolio and distribution, and balanced growthalgo. We expect +MSD% rev growth driven by a combination of AUR, sharegains in emerging categories, and international white space (namely APAC)and margin expansion le d by SG&A leverage, cost controls, and fewer promosleading to +HSD%/+LDD% EPS growth supported by buybacks. We viewpremium P/E valuation as appropriate given growth, healthy balance sheet,solid ROIC, and strong mgmt execution. We rate the stock Buy.Base Case,$328, +20%•FY26 rev growth of 3%+ as Int'l outperforms andNA is challenged•GM% flat as favorable mix and AUR offset costheadwinds and tariffs•SG&A leverage as expenses are controlled andmktg flat as % of sales•FY26 OM% of ~14.4%•$328 PT = 21x FY27 P/E on $15.44Sustainability MattersTop Material Issues:1) Employee Engagement, Diversity & Inclusion:are natural extensions of broaderlabor practices & are a top ESG issue for apparel and footwear companies. Cos should prioritizecompetitive & equal pay, advancement opportunities, & an environment where thought diversity candrive innovation.2) Materials Sourcing & Efficiency:these are considerations that are essential inthe transition to using environmentally preferred materials. Sustainable packaging practices, such asreducing packaging size, can help reduce costs.Company Targets:1)Achieve net zero by 2040.2)Reduce absolute Scope 1, 2, and 3 GHG emissions by30% by 2030 from FY20 base year (decreased by 29% as of FY23).3)Achieve 100% sustainably sourcedkey materials by 2025.4)Connect consumers with options to rent, repair, and recirculate products intop cities by 2025.Qs to Mgmt:1)How do your energy management goals affect your supply chain operations and LTmargin targets?2)What are customers asking for in terms of fashion circularity?ESG Report HEREPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$396, +45%•Rev CAGR of ~6% driven by elevated brandimage leading to +M-HSD% AUR coupled withsustained NA performance and strong APAC•GM% expansion of 75bps/year driven by higherAUR than expected and favorable mix•SG&A as % of sales flat or slightly lower as co.invests into mktg, digital, and stores•FY27 OM% of ~16.1%•$396 PT = 23x FY27 P/E on $17.17 Downside Scenario,$138, -50%•Rev CAGR flat to +LSD% as AUR increaseslead to price sensitivity and wholesale declinesworsen on digital shift•GM% is flat driven by increased promos, costinflation, tariffs, and changing int'l consumerpreferences•SG&A deleverage contained to breakeven oncost cuts•FY27 OM% of ~12.2%•$138 PT = 12x FY27 P/E on $11.54Catalysts•Raising 15% MT OM% guide•>MSD% sales growth•NA wholesale improvements•Fashion trends•Share repurchases 2 Q4 Sales and EPS Beat:Net rev of $1.70M beat $1.65B cons, and was +10% CC vs. 6-7% guide. EPSof $2.27 topped $2.00 cons. Inventory was +5% Y/Y, accel'ing vs. -5% in Q3 on healthy demand andtiming shift of Easter into Q1. See initial take HERE.Model and PT:We now model Q1 net rev/EPS of $1,621M/$3.33 vs. $1,605M/$3.14 cons. Our FY26net rev/EPS of $7,284M/$13.50 compare to $7,339M/$13.54 cons. Our PT of $328 = ~21x P/E onFY27 EPS of $15.44 (vs. $15.16 cons).Please see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionRalph LaurenRalph Lauren is a leading global fashion brand with offerings across apparel, footwear, accessories, home, fragrances, and hospitality.Company Valuation/RisksRalph LaurenOur price target is based on a forward P/E trading multiple. Risks include: fashion trends, macro volatility, cost inflation, value consumer weakness,and wholesale exposure.Analyst Certification:I, Ashley Helgans, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.I, Blake Anderson, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpre