Intuit Inc (INTU US)：买入：全面发力

Issuer of report:HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.View HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comMAINTAIN BUYTARGET PRICE(USD)773.00SHARE PRICE(USD)666.07(as of22 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(USDm)Market cap (USDm)3m ADTV (USDm)FINANCIALS AND RATIOS(USD)Year toHSBC EPSHSBC EPS (prev)Change (%)Consensus EPSPE (x)Dividend yield (%)EV/EBITDA (x)ROE (%)52-WEEK PRICE(USD)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesStephen BerseyHead of USTechnology ResearchHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.stephen.bersey@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 4153Abhishek Shukla*, CFASenior Analyst, TechnologyHSBC Bank Middle East Ltd, DIFCabhishek2.shukla@hsbc.com+971 4 5093343Govinder Kumar*Analyst, US Technology ResearchHSBC Mexico, S.A., Institucion de Banca Multiple, GrupoFinanciero HSBCgovinder.kumar@hsbc.com.mx+52 55 8551 6650* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesSoftwareUnited States05/24Target price: 773.00High: 706.25 Low: 544.07 Current: 666.07 07/2024a ◆◆◆ PREVIOUS TARGET(USD)699.00UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE+16.1%185,798Free float185,798BBG1,111RIC07/2025e16.9820.1316.9819.970.016.8319.3339.20.549.626.911/24 97%INTU USINTU.O07/2026e07/2027e24.1029.0023.3027.170.83.46.722.2025.2833.127.623.00.50.60.637.029.823.929.631.532.1510.00660.00810.0005/25 2Financial statementsYear to07/2024a07/2025e07/2026eProfit & loss summary(USDm)Revenue16,28518,835EBITDA3,7895,008Depreciation & amortisation-159-172Operating profit/EBIT3,6304,836Net interest-242-267PBT3,5504,695HSBC PBT6,3317,466Taxation-587-1,033Net profit2,9633,662HSBC net profit4,8115,674Cash flow summary(USDm)Cash flow from operations4,2163,951Capex-250-167Cash flow from investment-227-1,215Dividends-1,034-1,179Change in net debt-494-2,446FCF equity3,9663,784Balance sheet summary(USDm)Intangible fixed assets13,84413,847Tangible fixed assets8,6108,473Current assets9,67814,566Cash & others4,0746,888Total assets32,13236,885Operating liabilities7,65810,542Gross debt6,0386,406Net debt1,964-482Shareholders' funds18,43619,937Invested capital20,40019,455Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to07/2024a07/2025e07/2026eY-o-y % changeRevenue13.315.7EBITDA14.832.2Operating profit15.633.2PBT18.832.3HSBC EPS17.618.5Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)0.80.9ROIC15.118.9ROE26.929.6ROA10.611.2EBITDA margin23.326.6Operating profit margin22.325.7EBITDA/net interest (x)15.718.8Net debt/equity10.7-2.4Net debt/EBITDA (x)0.5-0.1CF from operations/net debt214.7Per share data(USD)EPS Rep (diluted)10.4612.99HSBC EPS (diluted)16.9820.13DPS3.483.62Book value65.0870.72Financials & valuation:Intuit Inc Strong 3QFY25 results, stronger underlying trends◆Revenue came at USD7,754m,up15.1% y-o-y and inline with HSBC (USD7,601m) andconsensus (USD 7,557m) estimates.◆Non-GAAP Operating profit came at USD4,343m,up17% y-o-y and inline with HSBC(USD4,332m) and above consensus (USD 4,098m) estimates.◆Non-GAAP Operating margin came at 56.01%,up0.91ppty-o-y and below HSBC (56.99%)butabove consensus (54.23%) estimates.◆Non-GAAP Net income came at USD3,280m,up17% y-o-y and inline with HSBC(USD3,252m) and above consensus (USD 3,099m) estimates.◆Non-GAAP EPS came at USD11.65,up17.9% y-o-y and inline with HSBC (USD11.53)and above consensus (USD 10.93) estimates.◆The company raised FY25 revenue and non-GAAP operating profit guidance by 3% and4% respectively. The new guidance is 2-3% above pre-results consensus revenue andnon-GAAP operating profit estimates.Intuit 3QFY25results: Actual vs estimates3Q25HSBCevs HSBCeConsensusvs. Consensus3Q24y-o-y7,7547,6012.0%7,5572.6%6,73715.1%6,6986,6331.0%6,5262.6%5,80415.4%86.4%87.3%-0.88pp86.4%0.03pp86.2%0.23pp4,3434,3320.3%4,0986.0%3,71217.0%56.0%57.0%-0.98pp54.2%1.78pp55.1%0.91pp3,2803,2520.9%3,0995.8%2,80417.0%42.3%42.8%-0.49pp41.0%1.3pp41.6%0.68pp11.6511.531.1%10.936.6%9.8817.9%Intuit: Results vsguidance vs estimates___________3Q25_____________4Q25e new guidance vs pre-results ests__FY25e New guidance vs pre-results ests___ActualConsensusPriorGuidanceHSBC*Consensus*GuidanceHSBC*Consensus*7,7547,5577,5753,9123,5393,74218,75918,3424,3434,098NA9841,0009977,5247,31056.0%54.2%NA25.1%28.3%26.6%40.1%39.9%11.6510.9310.922.592.602.6619.9719.35Source:Company data, Visible Alpha, HSBC estimates *Pre-results estimates 32Q25q-o-q3,96395.7%3,173111.1%80.1%6.32pp1,260244.7%31.8%24.22pp938249.7%23.7%18.63pp3.32250.9%NewGuidanceOldGuidance18,74218,2547,5537,27940.3%39.87%20.1019.26 Consumer: Inroads intothe assisted segmentWe now expect a CY24-27e revenue CAGR of 11.7% vs 4.7% previously, on muchbetter-than-expected traction in the assisted filing segment.3QFY25 revenue rose 10.8% y-o-y.The companyreported 47% revenue growth in Turbotax Live vs its previous long-term expectation of 15-20%annual growth. Turbotax Live now accounts for c40% of the total mix.According to Intuit,thedo-it-yourself segment of consumer tax filing market has atotaladdressable market of USD5bn perannum, of which Intuit has already captured more than USD3bn. The assisted tax