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Randal J. Konik * | Equity Analyst(212) 708-2719 | rkonik@jefferies.comCorey Tarlowe * | Equity Analyst(212) 323-7541 | ctarlowe@jefferies.comCarlos Gallagher * | Equity Associate+1 (786) 535-2025 | cgallagher1@jefferies.comKylie Cohu * | Equity Analyst(212) 778-8701 | kcohu@jefferies.comMantero Moreno-Cheek * | Equity Associate(212) 778-8407 | mmorenocheek@jefferies.comMina Solujic * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 444-4298 | msolujic@jefferies.com Summary of ChangesCompanyXponential FitnessXPOF^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise noted.Please see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. RatingPrice^BUY$8.40 Chart 1 - XPOF Income Statement.Xponential Fitness, Inc.Income Statement (fiscal year end December 31)($ Millions, except per share amounts)Total RevenueCosts of Product RevenueSG&A ExpensesMarketing Fund ExpenseOperating Income (Loss)Adjusted EBITDAOther ExpensePretax IncomeIncome Taxes (Benefit)Adjusted Net Income (Loss)Fully Diluted EPSFully Diluted Shares OutstandingMargin AnalysisGross ProfitSG&A ExpensesOperating IncomeAdjusted EBITDATax Rate (% of Pretax)Adjusted Net Income% Growth, YoYSalesGross ProfitSG&A ExpensesOperating IncomeAdjusted EBITDAAdjusted Net IncomeDiluted EPSBPs Change, YoYGross ProfitSG&A ExpensesOperating IncomeNet IncomeSource: Company data, Jefferies estimates.Source: Company data, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. The Long View: Xponential FitnessInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•We believe XPOF's portfolio of Scaled and Growth brands alongside itsrespective domestic and international expansion opportunities providesinvestors with a leading boutique fitness franchisor with ample potential tofurther improve its market share.Base Case,$26, +210%•Mid-teens % unit growth (on average) driven byfurther densification in the U.S. and internationalexpansion.•M-HSD% comp growth and HSD%-low teens %revenue growth.•Cost improvements driven by fixed-costleverageas well as the discontinuation oftransition studios.•$26 PT, based on F'26E adjusted EBITDA of ~$140M; ~9x EV/EBITDA.Sustainability MattersTop material issue(s):1) Product Quality & Safety:Given XPOF’s positioning in the fitness industry, webelieve product quality and safety across its network of locations are paramount, particularly given theimportance of the customer experience in the fitness industry.Company Target(s):XPOF has not provided go-forward ESG targets, however, the company hashighlighted a number of data points regarding its ESG efforts. To this end, XPOF has noted saving 3M+ plastic water bottles from landfill, using 1.2M sq. ft. of recycled materials for flooring in locations, andselling 10K+ clothing items that are environmentally friendly.Qs to mgmt:1)Do you have plans to release any ESG-related targets to the Street and investors?;2)Howdo you expect any potential ESG investments across the network to affect your P&L or your franchisees'P&Ls?;3)What are your primary focuses from an ESG perspective? Are there any areas that garnerincreased focus relative to others?Multiline and Specialty Retailers & Distributors ESG Integration RefreshPlease see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$40, +376%•Better-than-expected unit growth driven by amore favorable macro environment as well asinternational expansion efforts.•Overall top-line growth exceeds LT outlook asa result of increased memberships and AUVs(and better unit growth).•Cost improvements recognized quicker thananticipated, driven by increased efficiencies andbetter top-line growth.•$40 Upside PT, based on F'26E adjusted EBITDAof ~$161M; ~10x EV/EBITDA. Risk/Reward - 12 Month View4540353025201510520252024Downside Scenario,$7, -17%•Deterioration of the macro environmentpressureschurn rates and also results inslower-than-expected unit development.•Softer margin performance primarily drivenbyweaker top-line results(lower AUVs,membership churn)•Increased competition puts pressure on XPOF'sgrowth brands.•New competition in both traditional gyms andboutique fitness studios puts pressure on theXPOF portfolio.•$7 Downside PT,based on F'26E adjustedEBITDA of ~$119M; ~5x EV/EBITDA.Catalysts•Unit expansion across new and existing regions.•Continued growth internationally via the signingof new MFAs as well as further expanding uponexisting MFAs.•Strong AUV growth as a result of newer brandsmaturing and entering the system (Rumble andBFT). 4 Financials: Xponential FitnessEstimate changesUSDRev. (MM)Cons. Rev.PreviousEBITDA (MM)Cons. EBITDAPreviousValuation metricsUSDEV/EBITDAPlease see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 12 of this report.This report is inten