巴克莱每日最佳研究

Restricted - External U.S. Equity Product ManagementGroupTerence Malone*+ 1 212 526 7578terence.malone@barclays.comBCI, USAndrew Ferremi*+1 212 526 8257andrew.ferremi@barclays.comBCI, US market close. As per her proprietary promo tracker for 1Q25, the Gap brand inflected from"Deeper" to "Flat" which has not occurred since 2Q24, giving her confidence that GAP isexecuting on its turnaround playbook. Further, in 1Q25, her checks show thatafterfiveconsecutive quarters of "Better" promos at Old Navy, the brand inflected from "Better" to "Flat."This simply suggests to her that ON is maintaining its value message to consumers but is at-or-near peak merchandise margins. Adrienne remains O-rated based on: 1) her expectation thatthree of the four brands show signs of improving customer response, while Athleta looks to bemore challenged; 2) increased confidence in merchandise margin and sales improvement YTD;3) opportunity to optimize SG&A; and 4) positive-to-accelerating regular price selling, both inthe digital and store channels in all brands, except Athleta. She raises her PT to $33 from $26.U.S. Gaming: Notes from the Strip (05/27/2025). Brandt Montour recently held meetings in LasVegas with a majority of his land-based Gaming coverage, and his primary takeaway is thatGaming trends are mostly steady across the board. So far, May sounds mostly consistent, butwith room rates steady to slightly weaker due to incremental pricing promotions, partly due toseasonality and no change to promotions on the gaming side which remains solid. In Macau,May appears to be shaping up quite well, however he does not think the underlying marketdynamics have changed much yet. In Digital, hold so far is neutral in May, with no reason tobelieve handle will necessarily reaccelerate near-term, though both of these overhangs maytake a backseat if Ohio iGaming legislation continues to gain momentum. While macro remainshazy, albeit stabilized to some extent, Brandt continues to see attractive risk/reward across theGaming space for longer term investors. His most favored gaming names remain: 1) CZR, for itsstrong/profitable Digital growth/opportunity, deleveraging profile and deeply discounted equityvaluation, and 2) CHDN, for its best-in-class growth pipeline, and a rare pullback in valuation onoverblown Derby concerns and near-term regulatory noise.CoreWeave, Inc: A Compelling Long-term Story but the Recent Rally Caps Upside (05/27/2025).Raimo Lenschow continues to like the role Coreweave is playing in the new GenAI world. Thatsaid, at current levels, the stock is trading at a 41x EV/EBIT CY26 multiple, and while he expectsgrowth to remain strong, he is not sure there are fundamental arguments to push this muchhigher, with the company trading at a healthy premium already to the rest of the space. Despitethe long-term opportunity and exposure to the GenAI theme, given valuation and lacking anear-term catalyst, he sees limited upside in the near-term from here. As a result, hedowngrades shares to EW and raises his PT to $100 (from $70) to account for the recent run inshare price.Global and Cross Asset IdeasEM FX & Rates Insights: INR to underperform, stay long rates (05/27/2025). Mitul Kotecha andteam expect that near-term upward pressure on the INR, amid broad USD weakness, mayultimately return to a long-term depreciation path. They think USDINR will likely find a flooraround the 84.50-85.00 range in the short term. Further, they think the RBI will be focused onreplenishing its FXbufferswhile allowing its forward book to runoff.They also think the RBI willwant to maintain competitiveness by not allowing renewed appreciation of the INR NEER.Moreover, they note that any increase in oil import volumes could fuel a further widening inIndia's trade deficit and consequent INR pressure. Foreign bond flows have dried up and maywarrant wider yielddifferentialswith the US in order to return more sustainably. They expectthe 10y IGB yield to fall further towards 6% in the weeks ahead. However, risks from externalfactors, including elevated US rates, could persist in the near term. Further out, strong demandfrom domestic participants will be crucial in anchoring yields lower. The team expects demandto remain sticky at the longer end. Short-end rates are likely todrifteven lower, in their view,given the RBI’s proactive measures to inject durable liquidity.2 Macro ThemesChina:April retail sales growth slowed from the March high, but was still better than the Q4 24-Q125 average. The real estate sector showed more signs of weakness, while SOEs stepped upequipment upgrading and energy-related investment. Thetariffrollback reduced likelihood of newstimulus before Sept.(China: Mixed data amid policy supports, 05/26/2025)Singapore:April IP expanded on a sequential basis, in part driven by stronger growth in theelectronics cluster. The near-term IP resilience raises the risk of a delay to further FX policy easingby the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), wh