2025年投资者日：回归基础

2024A23,400.023,795.87,528.08.5x33.7xFY23FY24FY25E23,24523,40023,7967,9508,2438,6491,9281,6222,28028.5x33.8x23.9x9.9x9.2x9.6x8.3x3.5%3.6%3.8%4.0% 2025E2026E24,254.08,648.89,059.17.4x7.0x23.8x22.0xFY26EFY27E24,25424,8899,0599,3672,4482,65822.1x20.3x8.0x7.7x4.2%4.3% Roger Samuel, CFA * | Equity Analyst+612 9364 2931 | rsamuel@jefferies.comLucy Krimmer * | Equity Associate+612 9364 2924 | lkrimmer@jefferies.com The Long View: TelstraInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferTLS has the most extensive portfolio of network assets in Australia,spanningmobile towers,mobile backhaul,fixed-line network,subseacables, telecom exchanges, duct, and pipes. It is leading in the 5G rollout inboth metro and regional areas.This network differentiation has enabled TLS to charge a premium forits mobile services. However, the margin has widened with other mobileplayers and the scope for further price increases is limited. We forecastdividend to grow to 19.0 cps in FY25, and 19.8 cps in FY26.Base Case,AUD5.3, +12%Mobile competition is benign, with no price war.Postpaid ARPU grows by 2.4% in FY25E and3.5% FY26E, with Mobile EBITDA continuing toincrease. Data & IP divisional margin erosion dueto NBN, but TLS maintains its market share inEnterprise Fixed because of its robust domesticand international fibre networks, coupled withservice capabilities through NAS. Our PT of A$5.30 is derived from DCF and breakup valuation.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s):TLS is the first telco in Australia to achieve a carbon-neutral position. It is committed to reduce absoluteemissions from FY19 by at least 50% by 2030.Company Target(s):1) Reduce GHG (Scope1, 2 & 3) by 50% by 2030 and net zero by 2050.2) Close the digital inclusion gap: assist 1m vulnerable customers per annum; improve regional andremote connectivity. Commit at least $15.9m (FY21-FY23) to the Telstra Foundation.3) FY23 employee engagement score target of 84. Increase female representation to 35% (Workforceand Executive Management).4) Group Episode NPS target of +32, Strategic NPS target of +7.Qs to Mgmt:1) How is TLS progressing on its goals to enable renewable energy generation equivalent to 100% ofits consumption by 2025, and reduce overall emissions by 50% by 2030?2) What are you investing in to protect TLS and your customers data?3) TLS has high pricing power. How will you ensure that price rises will be fair for customers?ESG Sector Deep Dive: Telco and MediaPlease see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,AUD5.6, +19%Mobile competitors raise prices significantly torecover their investments in 5G. In Enterprise,TLS achieves better growth in DAC, NAS andGlobal Connectivity given the rush to implementcloud and AI. TLS also gains a larger share ofthe SMB market. Better-than-expected cost-outs.Our PT of A$5.60 is based on DCF and breakupvaluation. Downside Scenario,AUD4.2, -11%TPG/Optus MOCN deal becomes a formidablecompetitor to TLS in regional areas. TLS losessignificant market share in Enterprise and SMBsegments. Asset sales are halted because of alack of investor interest. TLS is unable to achieveits cost-out targets. Our PT of A$4.20 is derivedusing DCF and breakup valuation.Catalysts1.Strong postpaid mobile subscriber netadditions, mobile margin starting to increasewhile ARPU decline starts to subside.2. More clarity around the size and timing ofasset sales.3. Contract wins in the Enterprise segment. 2 Earnings revisionsFigure 5 - Earnings revisions.Sales revenue ($m)Underlying EBITDA ($m)EBIT ($m)Adjusted NPAT ($m)Adjusted EPS (¢)DPS (¢)Source: Jefferies estimatesGuidance ReaffirmedFY25 U/L EBITDA guidance of $8.5-8.7bn has been reaffirmed, and TLS now expects to be at thetop end of FCF and BAU capex of $3.0-3.4bn and $3.2-3.4bn, respectively. Strategic capex will beat the lower end of the $0.3-0.5bn guidance range, as previously outlined.Figure 6 - TLS Cash Earnings Yield.A$mUL EBITDALease AmortisationUL EBITDAaLBAU CapexUL EBITDAaL less BAU CapexSpectrum AmortisationNet Finance CostsUL Income Tax ExpenseMinoritiesCash Earningsper shareCAGRCash Earnings YieldSource: Company data, Jefferies estimatesFigure 7 - Dividend Coverage.A$mOperating cash flow*Capex (incl. spectrum)Free cash flow (excl. M&A)DividendDividend coverage (FCF/div)Surplus/(deficit)Dividend per share (cps)EPSDPS/EPS* includes interest expense and restructuring chargesSource: Jefferies estimatesFigure 8 - EBITDA Forecast Changes ($m).9,0379,3259,0598,4008,6008,8009,0009,2009,4009,6009,800FY26ESource: Jefferies estimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. FY27E FY25EFY26EFY27EFY28EFY29EFY30E864990599367966596909571282268255242230218836787919113942394609352340033003300330033003300496754915813612361606052322332342352362373631692647615581