月度食品零售快照：回归持续的销量趋势

Scott Marks * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8007 | smarks1@jefferies.comNatasha Baker * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8278 | nbaker@jefferies.com Department-Level TrendsFigure 1 - U.S. Retail Tracked Channel Trends by Department.Y/Y% Dollar GrowthLatestPreviousLatestPrevious4 Weeks4 Weeks4 Weeks4 Weeks2Y Stacked2Y StackedMay 17 '25Apr 19 '25May 17 '25Apr 19 '25Total FMCG0.8%2.5%2.0%3.3%Total Food1.6%4.5%3.2%5.5%Total Beverages2.4%4.0%4.1%4.8%Total HPC(0.6%)0.2%0.9%1.9%Total Alcohol(1.7%)(2.0%)(1.7%)(3.0%)Total Pet(1.7%)(0.8%)(1.7%)0.3%Total Tobacco & Alts(0.3%)(0.4%)(3.0%)(4.8%)Source: Jefferies Research, NielsenIQ xAOC incl. Convenience.Note: Our Total Food, Branded Food, and Private Label Food custom Nielsen data groupings include the bakery, dairy, deli, frozen, grocery, meat, and seafood departments, excluding the beverage, beverageenhancer, milk product, milk/dairy alternative, food storage, and ice supercategories.Please see important disclosure information on pages 27 - 32 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Key Publicly Traded Company TrendsFigure 2 - U.S. Retail Tracked Channel Trends by Publicly-Traded Company.Y/Y% Dollar GrowthLatestPreviousL4W vs.LatestPrevious4 Weeks4 WeeksP4WLatestL4W4 Weeks4 Weeks2Y Stacked2Y Stacked 2Y Stacked12 Weeksvs.May 17 '25Apr 19 '25May 17 '25Apr 19 '25DeltaMay 17 '25L12WB&G Foods(6.5%)(6.0%)(13.3%)(10.1%)(326 bps)(7.1%)63 bpsBellRing Brands*18.0%28.7%27.1%39.5%(1,241 bps)28.0%(1,004 bps)Beyond Meat(18.2%)(18.8%)(30.9%)(32.4%)148 bps(17.5%)(67 bps)Calavo Growers-x(9.9%)(11.9%)(14.7%)(14.2%)(46 bps)(10.8%)84 bpsCampbell Soup(4.0%)(0.6%)(3.0%)1.6%(457 bps)(1.9%)(215 bps)Conagra Brands(4.9%)(2.3%)(6.1%)(3.9%)(221 bps)(3.5%)(144 bps)Danone†(2.0%)0.5%0.4%3.3%(289 bps)(0.4%)(157 bps)Flowers Foods(4.5%)(2.6%)(3.3%)0.8%(408 bps)(3.6%)(91 bps)General Mills(5.8%)(2.3%)(8.9%)(4.1%)(477 bps)(4.0%)(180 bps)Hain Celestial(11.8%)(5.0%)(14.8%)(7.3%)(742 bps)(7.8%)(401 bps)Hershey10.5%14.9%9.9%8.7%126 bps6.0%453 bpsHormel Foods±(1.1%)0.2%1.5%2.9%(138 bps)(0.9%)(27 bps)J&J Snack Foods-x(10.8%)(3.2%)(14.4%)(4.5%)(992 bps)(6.3%)(452 bps)Kellanova(6.8%)(2.8%)(9.5%)(4.1%)(537 bps)(4.8%)(200 bps)Kraft Heinz(4.9%)(4.2%)(7.9%)(6.4%)(153 bps)(5.2%)33 bpsLamb Weston-x(3.4%)0.6%(6.3%)(2.8%)(351 bps)(0.8%)(253 bps)Lancaster Colony1.7%3.1%4.3%6.6%(234 bps)1.7%(3 bps)McCormick2.0%0.2%1.6%1.0%64 bps1.4%60 bpsMondelez(4.1%)2.3%(4.6%)1.7%(632 bps)(1.3%)(278 bps)Nestle†(0.8%)1.1%(3.3%)(0.9%)(243 bps)(0.1%)(74 bps)Post Holdings(7.5%)(4.6%)(10.7%)(5.5%)(524 bps)(5.3%)(213 bps)Simply Good Foods(3.2%)3.5%2.8%8.3%(557 bps)(0.1%)(303 bps)Smucker1.0%4.6%0.3%5.5%(526 bps)2.4%(143 bps)TreeHouse Foods-x1.3%(1.6%)(12.0%)(16.5%)453 bps(2.2%)349 bpsTyson±0.6%2.4%(1.4%)1.9%(329 bps)0.6%4 bpsUtz1.5%1.3%0.4%3.6%(317 bps)0.4%111 bpsVital Farms24.7%24.0%67.0%55.6%1,144 bps24.3%38 bpsWK Kellogg(7.5%)(3.2%)(11.5%)(5.3%)(626 bps)(5.8%)(171 bps)Source: Jefferies Research, NielsenIQ xAOC incl. Convenience.* Jefferies custom grouping;-x A relatively low percentage of total company branded sales are captured in U.S. retail tracked channels;† Jefferies covered company;± Not coveredPlease see important disclosure information on pages 27 - 32 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. B&G Foods (BGS)Figure 3 - B&G Foods - U.S. Retail Tracked Channel Trends.Source: Jefferies Research, NielsenIQ xAOC incl. Convenience.Please see important disclosure information on pages 27 - 32 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Bellring Brands (BRBR)Figure 4 - BellRing Brands - U.S. Retail Tracked Channel Trends.Source: Jefferies Research, NielsenIQ xAOC incl. Convenience.Please see important disclosure information on pages 27 - 32 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Beyond Meat (BYND)Figure 5 - Beyond Meat - U.S. Retail Tracked Channel Trends.Source: Jefferies Research, NielsenIQ xAOC incl. Convenience.Please see important disclosure information on pages 27 - 32 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Conagra Brands (CAG)Figure 6 - Conagra Brands - U.S. Retail Tracked Channel Trends.Source: Jefferies Research, NielsenIQ xAOC incl. Convenience.Please see important disclosure information on pages 27 - 32 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Campbell Soup (CPB)Figure 7 - Campbell Soup - U.S. Retail Tracked Channel Trends.Source: Jefferies Research, NielsenIQ xAOC incl. Convenience.Please see important disclosure information on pages 27 - 32 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Danone (BN FP)Figure 8 - Danone - U.S. Retail Tracked Channel Trends.Source: Jeffer