国货高端美妆标杆，体验渠道护肤共筑成长

请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明增持（首次）2025年05月27日05月27日收盘价（港114.00558.814.90来源：wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理【兴证海外消费】毛戈平（01318.HK）大单品矩阵稳固，品类与渠道扩张持续【兴证海外消费】毛戈平（01318.HK）跟踪报告：难以复制的高端国货美妆品牌，护肤品开辟第二增长曲线-2025.02.20songjingru@xyzq.com.cn请注意:陈雅雯并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从chenyawen@xyzq.com.cn 1/37 报告日期基础数据元）总市值（亿港元）总股本（亿股）相关研究-2025.04.03分析师：宋婧茹S0190520050002BQI321分析师：陈雅雯S0190524010001事受监管的活动。 MAOGEPING（01318.HK）ABenchmark for High-end DomesticCosmetics,Experience Channels andSkinCaretoBuildGrowthTogetherInvestmentHighlights:China'sbeautymarketisvastandfragmented:AccordingtothedataofFrost&SullivancitedintheprospectusofMaoGeping,calculatedbyretailsales,themarketsizeofChina'sbeautyindustrywillgrowfrom402.6billionyuanin2018to579.8billionyuanin2023,withacompoundannualgrowthrateof7.6%.Itisexpectedtocontinuetogrowatacompoundannualgrowthrateof8.6%from2023to2028,andisexpectedtoreach876.3billionyuanby2028,ofwhichthemarketsizeofcolorcosmeticsandskincareproductswillreach175.2billionyuan/701.1billionyuanrespectively.Atthesametime,high-endbeautybrandsaregraduallyfavoredbyconsumersandaregrowingrapidly.TheMaoGepingbrand,whichisdifficulttoreplicate,createsabenchmarkfordomesticbrandsinthehigh-endpricerange:High-endbrandshaveaprominentbrandimage,areusuallyfoundedbycelebritiesorartists,andarenamedafterthem.Asthefounderofthebrand,Mr.MaoGeping,withhisuniqueinsightsandstyleonaesthetics,innovativelyintegratestheessenceoflightandshadowaestheticswiththecorespiritoforientalaesthetics,anduseslightandshadowaestheticstoshapeChinese facial contours.Counter consultation and makeup trial to createdifferentiatedservices.In2003,MaoGeping'scompanysetupitsfirstcounterinShanghaiGrandGateway66,becomingthefirsthigh-enddomesticcosmeticsgrouptosetupacounterinahigh-enddepartmentstore.Asof2024,thecompanyoperatesatotalof378self-operatedcountersin120citiesacrossthecountry.Thecountersareequippedwith2,800beautyconsultantstoprovidepersonalizedconsultationandtrialmakeupservices.Differentiated pricing accurately enters the high-end beauty market:MaoGeping'smakeupproductpricerangeisbetween150-180yuan,whichisabovethe100yuanpricerangeofdomesticbeautybrands,butbelowthe200-400yuanpricerange of foreign beauty brands.Mao Geping's skin care product price range is300-350 yuan,which is above the 250 yuan price range of domestic skin careproducts,butbelowthe400yuanpricerangeofforeignskincareproducts.Makeupproductsare expandingsteadily,andtheskin carelinehasbroadspace:Asofthefirsthalfof2024,thecompany'smakeupandskincareproductshaveatotalof387items,including337makeupitemsand50skincareitems.1)Theperformanceofmakeupcontinuestoimprove,andthesalesoftopSKUsexceed100million:Thesalesvolumeofthemakeuplinereached12.98millionpiecesin2024,ayear-on-yearincreaseof52.37%,andtheaveragesellingpricereached177.5yuanperpiece,ayear-on-yearincreaseof6.35%.Inthefirsthalfof2024,thebest-sellingmakeupproductseries-light-sensitivetracelesspowdercreamachievedretailsalesofmorethan200millionyuan.2)Skincareproductsarepositionedatthehighend,andbillion-levelproductshavetakenshape,andtheskincaretrackhasbroadgrowthspace:By2024,thenumberwillreach4.578millionunits,withanaveragesellingprice of RMB 300-350.Best-selling products,such as luxury caviar masks,aretargeted at the early aging population and pre-makeup skin care products thatsmoothoutfinelinesandreducepores.Asofthefirsthalfof2024,retailsaleswillexceedRMB450million.Revenueandprofitareboomingandwillcontinuetogrowrapidly:Revenueincreased from RMB 1.58 billion in 2021 to RMB 3.88 billion in 2024,with acompoundannualgrowthrateof35.05%from2021to2024.Netprofitincreasedyearbyyear,withacompoundannualgrowthrateof38.6%.Thegrossprofitmarginwasstableandatahighlevel,mainlyduetoproductsalesbusiness(bybusinessdivision)andofflinechannelsales(bychanneldivision).Theinventorysituationwasimproving 3/37 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明ReportDateMay27,2025BasicDataMay.27,2025ClosingPrice(HKD)114.00Totalmarketvalue(100Mn/HKD)558.81TotalShares(100Mn)4.90RelatedReportAnalyst：JingruSONGsongjingru@xyzq.com.cnSFC：BQI321SAC：S0190520050002Analyst：YawenCHENchenyawen@xyzq.com.cnSAC：S0190524010001Pleasenote:YawenCHENisnotaregisteredlicenseeoftheSecuritiesandFuturesCommissionofHongKongandisnotallowedtoengageinregulatedactivitiesinHongKong andthecollectionwasstableandhealthy.Firstcoveragegivesan"Outperform"rating:WeexpectMAOGEPING'srevenuetogrowby34.5%/28.4%/23.6%year-on-yearin2025-2027,anditsadjustednetprofittogrowby28.2%/27.4%/25.2%year-on-year.AsofMay27,2025,MAOGEPING'sclosingpricecorrespondstoa2025P/Eratioofabout43x,givingthecompanyan"Outperform"rating.Potential risks：1)Intensified industry competition;2)Uncontrollable productdevelopment;3)Unpredictablemarketfactors;4)Influenceofmacroeconomicfactorsandconsumerbehavior.KeyFinancialIndicators2024ARevenue(CNY/Mn)3,885YoY(%)AdjustedNetIncome(CNY/Mn)YoY(%)GrossMargin(%)NetMargin(%)ROE(%)EPS(CNY)Source:wind,IndustrialSecuritiesResearchInstituteNotes:TheEPSwasdilutedbasedonthecurrentoutstandingshares 4/37FY2025E2026E2027E5,2276,7118,29434.634.528.423.69241,1851,5101,89039.1