把握吊臂趋势，选择航空公司/油轮运输/高速公路名称

1OVERWEIGHT(Maintain)SHEN Xiaofengshenxiaofeng@htsc.com+(86) 21 2897 2088LIN Shanlinshan@htsc.com+(86) 21 2897 2209LIN Xiayinglinxiaying@htsc.com+(86)10 6321 1166HUANG Fanyanghuangfanyang@htsc.com+(86) 21 2897 2228GENG Dailingengdailin@htsc.com+(86) 21 2897 2228Sector performanceSource: Wind, Huatai ResearchStock recommendationsCodeTP (LocalCurrency)Rating601111 CH10.20BUY753 HK6.90BUY600115 CH5.15BUY670 HK3.20BUY002928 CH10.80BUY600026 CH16.00BUY1138 HK9.20BUY576 HK7.82BUY600012 CH18.60BUY995 HK15.80BUY002352 CH51.10BUY6936 HK52.80BUY152 HK9.30BUYSource: Company data, Huatai Research estimatesJan-25May-25TransportationCSI300 AnalystSAC No.S0570516110001SFC No. BCG366AnalystSAC No. S0570520080001SFC No. BIR018AnalystSAC No. S0570518090003SFC No. BIX840AnalystSAC No. S0570519090001SFC No. BQK283AnalystSAC No. S0570124070117SFC No. BVZ964CompanyAir ChinaAir ChinaCEACEAChina ExpressCOSCO SHIPPINGEnergyCOSCO SHIPPINGEnergyZhejiang ExpresswayAnhui ExpresswayAnhui ExpresswaySF HoldingSF Holding Co LtdShenzhenInternational(13)(6)1714May-24Sep-24(%) This report must be read with important disclosures andanalyst certifications located on the end of the report.Highways & railways: net profitof highway firmsimproved in 1Q25Highwaycompanies posted robust earnings in 1Q25, standing out within thedividendtheme.In1Q25,attributablenetprofitforbank/telecom/gas/highway/thermalpower/hydropower segments changed by-1.2/+3.6/+0.9/+5.4/+5.5/+28% yoy. As the dividend payout season approaches, wesuggest exposure to dividend plays forpotentialrallies post dividend distribution.We think the risk-off sentiment and interest ratescouldsignificantly buoyvaluationsof dividend names. The 10Y government bond yield declined from 1.81% in earlyApril to 1.62% by month-end. InMarch, national railway passenger turnover fell1.3% yoy, as airline ticket pricecuts have drawn demand away from high-speedrail,likely weakening indicators like passenger load factor.Currently,coalinventories at northern ports are at their highestlevels in nearly six years, whichwebelievemay continue dampening demand for railway coal transportation. In 1Q25,DaqinRailway’s freight volumedropped 5.6% yoy; an inflection intransportvolumemay have to wait until the coal transport peak season inlate June, inour view.Logistics&express: cautious on franchise-basedexpress firms1)Express delivery:in1Q25,parcel volume growth defied seasonal softnessontrade-inpolicies.However,both yoy/qoqprice declines widened. Despite franchise-basedexpress leaders trading at 10-year low P/E TTM levels,risks of pricecompetitionpersist.Considering this, and thata slight slowdown inparcel volumegrowth since April may intensify price competition during the off season, werecommenda wait-and-seeapproachtowardsfranchise-basedexpress companiesin the short term, whileremainingbullish onleading companies with abundantcapital and high-quality servicesin themedium to long term.2)Cross-border e-commerce logistics:theevolutionof reciprocaltariffs warrants monitoring. Over themedium to long term, line-haul airlines will need to open new routes and enhanceintegrated logistics capabilities to improve risk resilience. 3) Bulk commodity supplychain:prices remain rangebound at low levels, and a segment turnaround has yetto emerge.Risks: slowdown in economic growth; trade frictions; unfavorable oil price and forexfluctuations; intensified competition. This report must be read with important disclosures and analyst certifications located on the end of the report.4COSCO Shipping Energy’s 2024 revenue/attributablenet profit (NP)/recurring attributable NP were RMB23.2/4.0/3.98bn (+2.3/+19.4/-3.8% yoy), inline with its profit alert. In 2024, the international oil shipping market was buoyant at first but weakened later, with 2H24freight rates declining hohon soft global macro demand and OPEC+’s sustained production cuts. The company announced it would distribute a dividend of RMB0.21/share atend-2024, implying a full-year payout ratio of 50.8%. For 2025, we expect a macro demand recovery and OPEC+’s production raise from April to liftinternational crude and refined oil shipping rates yoy, thus driving up the company’s profit. In addition, uncertainty regarding geopolitical issuescreates significant market expectation gaps, and we see great upside potential for thecompany’s earnings. BUY.We maintain our 2025/2026 NP forecasts at RMB5.4/6.1bn, and introduce our 2027 estimate of RMB6.5bn. We value the H-/A-shares at 1.0/1.9x2025E PB (H-share: 0.5SD above its three-year average PB to factor in potentially tighteningindustry supply in the medium to long term; A-share:in line with its three-year average PB), and maintain our target prices at HKD9.20/RMB16.00. Maintain BUY.(Our latest report on COSCO SHIPPINGEnergy was dated 27 March 2025.)Risks: global economic downturn; lower shipping rates than we expect; geopolitical uncertainties.Zhejiang Expressway’s (ZJE) revenue/attributable net profit (NP) were RMB18.1/5.50bn for 2024 (+