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消费者信心：家庭认同关税具有滞胀性

2025-05-27 Pooja Sriram,Colin Johanson,Marc Giannoni,Jonathan Millar 巴克莱银行表情帝

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose 12.3 points in May to 98.0, reversing the declines seen in March and April, largely driven by positive developments in US trade policy, including a three-month freeze on tariffs and mutual tariff reductions between the US and China. The improvement reflects reduced pessimism about the economy heading into a recession and higher inflation due to trade policies. However, the May sentiment reading contradicts the preliminary University of Michigan survey, which showed a 1.4-point decline to 50.8. This discrepancy may be due to the timing of the Michigan survey data collection, which likely occurred before the tariff deescalation announced on May 12. The Conference Board's index shows improvement in consumers' assessment of the current situation and expectations for employment prospects, income outlook, and business conditions. Consumers are also more likely to buy major appliances, houses, and cars in the next six months. Average one-year-ahead inflation expectations fell 0.5 percentage points to 6.5%. The report suggests that consumers view tariffs as stagflationary, linking their economic prospects to tariff developments.

higher inflation.Restricted - External Pooja Sriram+1 212 526 0713pooja.sriram@barclays.comBCI, USColin Johanson+1 212 526 8536colin.johanson@barclays.comBCI, USMarc Giannoni+1 212 526 9373marc.giannoni@barclays.comBCI, USJonathan Millar+1 212 526 4876jonathan.millar@barclays.comBCI, US Even if the Michigan reading corroborates the Conference Board, we would regard thesentiment improvement as broadly consistent with positive revisions we folded into ouroutlook earlier this month following the Chinatariffdeescalation.FIGURE 1. Consumer confidence advanced in May following five consecutive monthly declinesSource: Conference Board, Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 2. May's improvement in the Conference Board measure is somewhat at odds with theUniversity of Michigan's sentiment index, though this may reflectdifferencesin survey timing40608010012014016019202122232425U Mich sentimentindexConference BoardIndexConference Board Consumer ConfidenceU of Michigan SentimentSource: Conference Board, University of Michigan, Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchThe Conference Board's measure of consumers' assessment of the current situation fromthe firmed,with the "present situation" index rising 4.8pts, to 135.9, albeit still somewhatbelow its February reading of 138.1. This seems mostly to reflect perceptions that short-termbusiness conditions have improved, with a larger share of respondents judging conditions to be"good" (+1.7pp to 21.9%) and a smaller share viewing them as "bad" (-2.3pp to 14.0%). At thesame time, consumers' assessment of labor market conditions worsened, with the labor marketdifferentialreaching an eight-month low of 13.2, as intensifying perceptions that jobs arebecoming "hard to get" (+1.1pp to 18.6%) more thanoffseta more measured improvement inperceptions that jobs are "plentiful" (+0.6pp to 31.8%). The correlation between the labormarketdifferentialand the unemployment rate (U3) has historically been negative, thoughnarrowing of thedifferentialhas coincided with sideways moves in U3 over the past fewmonths.Consumers' expectations strengthened in May,with the index rising 17.4pts, reflectingimprovements in all three major components - employment prospects, income outlook, and 2 business conditions. Consumers' buying plans over the next six months also improved in May,with a greater share of respondents noting that they are more likely to buy automobiles,houses, and nearly all major appliances than in April. At the same time, average one-year-aheadinflation expectations fell 0.5pp, to 6.5%, seemingly at odds with the 0.8pp rise in one-yearahead inflation expectations, to 7.3%, in the preliminary May Michigan Survey.All of thesedevelopments are highly consistent with what one would expect if consumers regardtariffsas stagflationary, which is a reminder that consumers regard their prospects in thecoming quarters as being tied totariffdevelopments.FIGURE 3. The Conference Board and Michigan indicesdifferedmostly because of consumers'differingassessments of expectations, which may reflectdifferencesin survey timingSource: Conference Board, University of Michigan, Bloomberg, Barclays Research3 Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Pooja Sriram, Jonathan Millar, Colin Johanson and Marc Giannoni, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accuratelyreflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensationwas, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays").All authors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflectsthe local time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:For current important disclosures regarding any issuers which are the subject of this research report please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investorsshould be aware that Barclays may have a conflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesregularly trades, generally deals as principal and generally provides liquidity (as market maker or otherwise) in the debt securities that are thesubject of this research report (and related derivatives thereof). Barclays trading desks may have either a long and / or short position in such securities,other financial instruments and / or deriv

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