终端市场需谨慎，其他风险正在消退

Restricted - External WMSOVERWEIGHTUnchangedU.S. Homebuilding &Building ProductsPOSITIVEUnchangedPrice TargetUSD 135.00raised 4% from USD 130.00Price (15-May-25)USD 117.54Potential Upside/Downside+14.9%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchMarket Cap (USD mn)9118Shares Outstanding (mn)77.57Free Float (%)98.5452 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)0.6Dividend Yield (%)0.61Return on Equity TTM (%)32.30Current BVPS (USD)19.66Source: BloombergPrice PerformanceExchange-NYSE52 Week rangeUSD 184.27-93.92Source: IDCLink to Barclays Live for interactive chartingU.S. Homebuilding & BuildingProductsMatthew Bouley+1 212 526 9029matthew.bouley@barclays.comBCI, USElizabeth Langan+1 212 526 5960elizabeth.langan@barclays.comBCI, USAnika Dholakia+1 212 526 8780anika.dholakia@barclays.comBCI, US Our new FY’26 EBITDA estimate assumes flat organic volumes plus the earnings contribution ofacquisitions, negative manufacturingoffsetby positive transportation (roughly neutral onbalance), slightly lower priceoffsetby lower resin costs (again neutral on balance), with higherSG&A dollars the primary delta driving our total EBITDA down $17 mn YoY.Details and Outlook: In 1Q, we expect incremental margin pressureoffnegative manufacturingand small pricing headwinds. We expect this should fade as pricing remains stable sequentiallythrough the remainder of FY'26, and we expect volumes to remain flattish organically. We thinkM&A will continue to be a priority into 2026, and though acquisitions (Orenco specifically) coulddrive higher SG&A this year, we expect WMS to remain mindful of maintaining SG&A leveragewhere possible. Non-resi end markets were guided to flat to -LSD, driven by economicuncertainty, rates, but with selective strength in certain categories like data centers, with resiexpected -LSD-MSD, driven by a choppy retail market and economic uncertainty impacting landdevelopment for homebuilders. Infrastructure was guided +LSD, driven by IIJA funding, whileAgriculture and International were both guided -DD due tosoftercrop prices and unfavorableCanada/Mexico outlook respectively. In 4Q, construction was -4%, with Non resi +1%, Resi -7%,and Infrastructure -18% y/y; Agriculture was -28% y/y. By business, Pipe was -12%, AlliedProducts was -5%, and Infiltrator was +15% y/y.Valuation, Revisions:Our price target moves to $135 (prior $130), 13.0x our CY’25e EBITDA of$873 mn. We now estimate FY’25/’26 adj. EBITDA of $872 mn/$912 mn ($895 mn/$926 mn prior).WMS: Quarterly and Annual EPS (USD)202520262027Change y/yFY MarActualOldNewConsOldNewCons20262027Q12.06A1.89E1.82E2.00E2.04E1.94E2.11E-12%7%Q21.67A1.62E1.55E1.77E1.76E1.63E2.05E-7%5%Q31.04A1.22E1.04E1.33E1.34E1.11E1.44E0%7%Q40.99A1.13E0.94E1.26E1.26E1.01E1.37E-5%7%Year5.76A5.86E5.35E6.27E6.40E5.68E7.00E-7%6%P/E20.422.020.7Consensus numbers are from Bloomberg received on 15-May-2025; 12:50 GMTSource: Barclays Research2 Investment Summary and ConclusionCompany OverviewAdvanced Drainage Systems (NYSE: WMS) is a manufacturer of thermoplastic corrugatedpipe and other water management products with FY’25 revenues of $2.9 bn. WMS providesa broad suite of water management and drainage solutions to underground constructionand infrastructure customers.WMS currently has approximately 64 manufacturing plants, 41 distribution centers, and an in-house fleet of ~650 tractors. The company’s top two customers are ~25% of sales. 93% of WMSrevenues are generated domestically, with the remaining 7% generated internationally. WithinWMS’s domestic markets, 47% of revenues are generated by the non-residential constructionend market, 39% by residential construction, 9% by infrastructure, and 5% by agriculture.ValuationWe rate WMS Overweight with a $135 price target.Our $135 price target represents 13.0x ourCY'25 EBITDA est. of $873 mn, assuming YE'25 net debt ($773 mn); we lower our multipleoffnear-term end market and demand headwinds. Our prior $130 price target was based on 12.0xour prior CY’25 EBITDA estimate of $912 mn and assumed YE’25 net debt $631 mn.FIGURE 1. WMS Valuation and Upside/Downside ScenariosSource: Barclays Research Estimates, Company Data 4 Analyst(s) Certification(s):I, Matthew Bouley, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subjectsecurities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specificrecommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:Where any companies are the subject of