塔吉特公司2025年第一季度揭示挑战

Restricted - External TGTEQUAL WEIGHTUnchangedU.S. Broadlines, Hardlines &Food RetailNEUTRALUnchangedPrice TargetUSD 102.00lowered -27% from USD 140.00Price (16-May-25)USD 98.58Potential Upside/Downside+3.5%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchMarket Cap (USD mn)44790Shares Outstanding (mn)454.36Free Float (%)99.6552 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)5.9Dividend Yield (%)4.54Return on Equity TTM (%)29.12Current BVPS (USD)32.19Source: BloombergPrice PerformanceExchange-NYSE52 Week rangeUSD 167.40-87.35Source: IDCLink to Barclays Live for interactive chartingU.S. Broadlines, Hardlines & FoodRetailSeth Sigman+1 212 526 7417seth.sigman@barclays.comBCI, USTheo Brito+1 212 526 9504theo.brito@barclays.comBCI, USOliver Hu+1 212 526 6180oliver.hu@barclays.comBCI, US Risk to Q1:Target moved away from quarterly guidance as of last quarter citing heightenedvolatility, although it noted a "small decline" in February sales as poor weather and lowerconsumer sentiment negatively impacted discretionary categories. We think trends worsened inMarch and through most of April as customers pulled back on non-essential spend. Buttransactions also seemed to weaken. We some some signs of improvement around Easter,which we would expect the company to discuss.For Q1,we lower our EPS estimate to $1.59 (prior $1.77) compared to current consensus $1.68(consensus was $1.82 post Q4 results as of 3/6). We now expect comp sales -3% compared toour initial estimate of -0.5%; current consensus is -1.6% vs -0.6% post Q4 report. We expectgross margin flattish (consensus +30bp) driven by incremental shrink benefits and lessmarkdowns compared to last quarter,offsetby higher digital fulfillment costs and negativechannel mix. We trimmed our SG&A; we model SG&A per sq.ft.to be up 2.5% similar the lasttwo years, reflecting higher planned expenses including startup costs from a ramp up in newstores and remodel projects, partiallyoffsetby cost cuts to helpoffsetthe weaker sales. Thisdrives our operating margin down 100+bps compared to -65bp before (consensus -80bp).Risk to FY25 guidance:We expect Target to reduce EPS guidance. We believe $8.00-$9.00 wouldbe a reasonable range vs. initial target of $8.80-$9.80, assuming -LSD comps vs flattish before—and incremental margin headwinds owing totariff-relatedcosts (previously guided to modestincrease in operating margin). We trim our FY25 to $8.41 (from $9.29) vs current consensus EPS$8.53. This assumes comps -1% (prior +1%) and operating margin -30bp (prior +10bp). We trimour gross margin forecast to +36 bps vs prior +50bp for the year (consensus +55bp). Q2 couldsee similar dynamics as WMT (although less upside in our view), reversing in 2H.We lower our price target to $102 (prior $140) as we roll forward our valuation to FY26 andadjust our multiple to 12x (prior 15x) to reflect lower expected growth owing to macro,competitive, and company-specific issues. Our new price target reflects our reduced FY26 EPSestimate of $8.52 (prior $10.70). Our upside case is $152 (prior $180) based on 16x FY26 upsideEPS of $9.50 with downside to $70 (prior $100) based on 10x FY26 downside EPS of $7.00.TGT: Quarterly and Annual EPS (USD)202420252026Change y/yFY JanActualOldNewConsOldNewCons20252026Q12.03A1.77E1.59E1.67EN/AN/A1.79E-22%N/AQ22.57A2.60E2.33E2.40EN/AN/A2.51E-9%N/AQ31.85A2.20E2.00E1.97EN/AN/A2.12E8%N/AQ42.41A2.73E2.48E2.43EN/AN/A2.62E3%N/AYear8.86A9.29E8.41E8.52E10.70E8.52E9.11E-5%1%P/E11.111.711.6Consensus numbers are from Bloomberg received on 16-May-2025; 12:50 GMTSource: Barclays Research2 FIGURE 2. Pullback in discretionary spend and increased competitionin consumables may have impactedtrafficin Q1FIGURE 3. Ticket has been negative for over two years reflectingdeflation in gen merch and price investments in consumables-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%1Q222Q223Q224Q22TGT Average Transaction Amount (Ticket)Source: Company data, Numerator, Barclays Investment SciencesSource: Company data, Numerator, Barclays Investment SciencesTransactions May Have SlowedComp sales down in Q1, possibly worse than Feb trendsWe lowered our comps to -3% (prior -0.5%); our analysis points to a range of down at least 3%,and below current consensus -1.6% (consensus was -0.6% post Q4 results).Aftera reportedlyweak start to the quarter, we think sales trends worsened in March and through mid April beforeimproving somewhat in the last two weeks helped by warmer weather and the Easter holiday.FIGURE 1. Target's sales trends seem to have worsened throughout Q1aftera reportedly weakFebruary; our analysis point to comps down at least -3% below current consensus -1.6%-7%-6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%1Q222Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25ETarget Comparable Sales GrowthTargetBarclays Tracker*Industry Benchmark***Barclays Tracker consists of company-specific third-party data. **Industry Benchmark includes Nielsen and SpendTrend.Source: Company data, NielsenIQ, Fiserv POS SpendTrend, Numerator, Bloomberg, Barclays Investment SciencesTransactions