第一太阳能(FSLR)：股票还能涨多高？

Restricted - External FSLROVERWEIGHTUnchangedNorth America CleanTechnologyPOSITIVEUnchangedPrice TargetUSD 222.00raised 9% from USD 204.00Price (16-May-25)USD 178.46Potential Upside/Downside+24.4%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchMarket Cap (USD mn)19138Shares Outstanding (mn)107.24Free Float (%)94.5252 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)3.0Dividend Yield (%)N/AReturn on Equity TTM (%)16.77Current BVPS (USD)76.34Source: BloombergPrice PerformanceExchange-Nasdaq52 Week rangeUSD 306.77-116.56Source: IDCLink to Barclays Live for interactive chartingNorth America Clean TechnologyChristine Cho, CFA+1 212 526 8419christine.cho@barclays.comBCI, USThomas Roche, CFA, CPA+1 212 526 9750thomas.roche@barclays.comBCI, USLiam Duggan, CFA+1 212 526 5416liam.duggan@barclays.comBCI, US Price target change:Our updated price target of $222 (vs. $204 prior) is based on $80 of 45Xcredits (vs. $96 prior) tied to the wafer, cell, and module, and a ~10.0x P/E multiple (~15.0x prior)on our 2027E EPS of $14.23 (ex tax credits) (vs. 2025E EPS of $7.21 ex tax credits previously). Wehave updated our price target multiple base year to 2027 to better reflect changes to theoutlook as a result of thedrafttax reconciliation bill. Our 10x multiple is broadly in line withpeer average levels.FSLR: Quarterly and Annual EPS (USD)202420252026Change y/yFY DecActualOldNewConsOldNewCons20252026Q12.20A1.97E1.95A1.95A4.24E3.82E4.32E-11%96%Q23.25A3.19E2.61E2.67E6.39E5.92E5.04E-20%127%Q32.91A4.25E4.12E4.46E6.67E6.35E6.03E42%54%Q43.65A7.03E6.86E5.69E8.61E8.30E7.10E88%21%Year12.02A16.44E15.55E14.83E25.92E24.40E22.27E29%57%P/E14.911.57.3Consensus numbers are from Bloomberg received on 16-May-2025; 12:50 GMTSource: Barclays Research2 Risk/reward isn't as attractive as it was before thedraftbill came out, but there is still more to play forFEOC restrictions are more punitive than expected, strengthening FSLR'smoat and pricing powerSince the release of the markupdraftof the 2025 budget reconciliation, FSLR is up 56% (vs. SPYup 2% and TAN up 6%), as it was the biggest beneficiary on the solar side with 45X creditsremaining relatively in place, ITC/PTC phasing out later than expected, and restrictive FEOClanguage. As we noted in our 5/13 note entitled "No Chinese equipment allowed to get 30% ITC/PTC", thedraftstates that "any component, subcomponent, or applicable critical mineralincluded in such property that is extracted, processed, recycled, manufactured, or assembledby a prohibited foreign entity" is considered "material assistance from a prohibited foreignproperty", making a project ineligible to receive the 30% ITC/PTC.At a high level, we view this as one big master AD/CVD on China as it cuts Chinaoffat the source.In the past, AD/CVDtariffshave been put in place, only to be circumvented by Chinesemanufacturers as they have continued tooffshoreoperations todifferentregions - thetariffswere first put on China, then on Taiwan, and recently on Southeast Asia, resulting in an endlessgame of "whack-a-mole". The proposed legislation put out last week would put an end to that,as any projects using components tied to a Chinese entity will be ineligible for the 30% ITC.With respect to panels, we take the FEOC language to mean that not only do the cells andmodules have to be manufactured by a non-Chinese entity, but so do the wafers andpolysilicon. This begs the question - does the world have enough supply of each of the relevantsubcomponents that is not tied to Chinese entities and, if so, how much higher is that cost? Theshort answer is that supply/demand will be tight and we estimate FSLR's weighted average ASPcould trend closer to the $0.35/w range (vs. the ~$0.30/w level it has trended for bookings overthe last year), which we discuss in more detail below.How much more upside does FSLR have?Below in Figure 1, we provide capacity for all the FLSR's facilities in SE Asia, India, and US (fullyramped) and the ASP and cost per watt that we think FSLR could realize in the respectiveregions. As we go into detail later in the report, we think the price of imported panels will rise tothe low 30 cent range, which would allow FSLR to price its SE panels at around that range.Assuming the domestic content adder is alsoleftintact as part of the budget reconciliation bill,we generally think the US panels can fetch a $0.05/w premium to their SE panels. For SE Asia,our cost per watt assumes the current 10%tariffisleftin place. For India, we assume all of theproduction is sold to the local market.Under these assumptions, we estimate that FSLR could generate EPS of ~$14 on a run-rate basis(ex-45X tax credits).Assuming a 10x multiple, we estimate the underlying value of thebusiness is $141 while the NPV of the 45X credits equates to $81, for a total of $222 per share. 4 Sensitivity analysis to see how valuation changes depending ondifferentASP and multiple assumptionsIn Figure 2, we provide a sensitivity table with ASP and the EPS multiple as the variables thatcan change. Our math in