奥斯特（ORSTED）：评估价值的牛市/熊市情景

2025E2026E26,050.029,160.026,359.029,525.015.8020.908.7x7.8x 2027E31,949.032,257.024.107.1x Ahmed Farman * | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7029 8987 | afarman@jefferies.comZach Ho * | Equity Analyst+44 (0) 20 7548 4714 | zach.ho@jefferies.comAlejandra Botbol * | Equity Associate+44 (0)20 7548 4326 | abotbol@jefferies.comArturo Murua * | Equity Analyst+44 (0) 20 7548 4344 | amurua@jefferies.com The Long View: OrstedInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferWith a 40%/-$10bn fall in the market cap since US elections, Orstedtrades towards the lower end of our bull/bear scenario valuation range ofDKK350/220 (+45% to -11%). This implies that a significant amount of riskis being priced into Ørsted stock, and the stock is getting closer to highlydiscounted valuation territory. The issue is that there is no obvious clearingevent on Sunrise Wind permitting risks. Reiterate Hold, with PT cut of -24%to DKK260.Base Case,DKK260, +5%•FY26 EV/EBITDA of 7.5x, P/E of 12x•Assume no further downside on Orsted,construction all of its assets without anyfurtherissues,including Revolution Wind/SunriseWind.We also assume that anyeventual changes to the IRA will not materiallyimpact Orsted's earnings power in the US.•FFO/ND of 30% from 2026 onwards•DKK5bn of further impairments from 1Q25onwards•Offshore/Onshore WACC of 6.5%Sustainability MattersTop Ranked ESG Issue: GHG Emissions –New statutory CO2for all large unquoted companies (from April 2022) and quoted companies, paired with increasedstakeholder interest in corporate responsibility, make this an increasingly important driver for ourstocks.Company Targets (s):1) <10gCO2renewable by 2025. 4) Net zero in scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions by 2040.Questions to Management:1) What do you see as being the biggest obstacle to achieving yoursustainability targets? 2) Given supply issues across Europe, how are you going to ensure thattargeted sustainability progress isn’t compromised? 3) How is ESG factored into your capitalallocation decision process? 4) Do you expect policy in your operating regions to financially supportinvestment in decarbonization?Please see important disclosure information on pages 9 - 14 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. e/kWh by 2025. 2) Total coal exit by 2023. 3) Suppliers to be 100% Upside Scenario,DKK350, +42%•FY26 EV/EBITDA of 11x, P/E of 19x•Weassumeoffshoreimproves materially from where we standtoday and results in higher value creation forOrsted. In particular, we assume EV/IC of 1.3xon Orsted future projects.•In this scenario, Orsted maintains an FFO/NDof 30% from 2026 onwards.•Offshore/Onshore WACC of 6.5%.emission disclosure requirements Downside Scenario,DKK220, -11%•FY26 EV/EBITDA of 7x, P/E of 21x•We assume that Sunrise Wind gets cancelled,withOrsted losing investment tax creditsrelating to Sunrise Wind while also incurringfurther cancellation/decommissioning costs.•In this scenario, we see a distressed balancesheet which requires a significant equity raiseinorder to keep FFO/ND above 30%onaverage over FY25-27. We assume DKK20bnof equity raise in this scenario, at equity raiseprice of DKK200.•Offshore/Onshore WACC of 6.5%.Catalysts•13 Aug:1H25 Results wind sentiment 2 Exhibit 1 - JEF Utilities & Clean Energy comp sheet.CompanyMarket cap(in €m)SectorIntegratedCentricaEDPEngieEndesaEnelE.ONFortumNaturgyIberdrolaRWESSEVerbundRegulatedCK InfrastructureNational GridPennonRedeiaSevern TrentTernaUnited UtilitiesRenewablesEDPROrstedHidroelectricaCloudberryWaste / EnvironmentVeolia EnvironnementSource: Jefferies Estimates, Company Data, FactsetAssessing Orsted value through bull-bear scenarios.Exhibit 2 - JEF bear scenario summary metrics.JEF bear scenario metricsJEF PT (DKK/share)TSR (%)EBITDAGrowth rate (%)EBITDA (ex-new partnerships/cancellation costs)EPS (DKK/share)JEF EPS (existing activities, ex-impairment, DKK/share)DPS (DKK/share)Trading multiplesP/E (x)P/E @ JEF EPS (x)Dividend yield (%)EV/EBITDA (x)FFO/Net DebtNet DebtFFO/Net DebtSource: Jefferies Estimates, Company DataPlease see important disclosure information on pages 9 - 14 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. JEF bear scenarioValuation: DKK220/shareScenario details:We assume that Sunrise Windgets cancelled, with Orsted losing investmenttax credits relating to Sunrise Wind while alsoincurring further cancellation/decommissioningcosts.We assume cancellation costs equal to 15%of total spent capex, cancellation costs (incl.payments to supply chain) equal to 60% ofremaining unspent capex, with 40% completionrate of Sunrise Wind. We also assume Sunrisecapex of c.$7m/MW.In this scenario, we see a distressed balancesheet which requires a significant equity raisein order to keep FFO/ND above 30% on averageover FY25-27. We assume DKK20bn of equityraise in this scenario, at equity raise price ofDKK200.We do not assume any significant impact fromthe potential implement