Workday公司（WDAY）：第一季度预览预计惊喜较少

(415) 229-1559 | bthill@jefferies.comAlex Nguyen * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8978 | alex.nguyen@jefferies.com+1 (212) 778-8244 | rnaidu@jefferies.com$273.05^$325.00 | +19%$294.00 - $199.81FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD)78.8% | 554.31^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwiseJEF vs CONS20262027-1%NMNANAChart 1 - Subscription revenue - Actual vs4QChart 2 - Estimated sequential change in4QSource: Jefferies, Company data, Visible Alpha consensusEquity ResearchMay 19, 2025 2024A2025A2026E7,258.88,446.09,430.25.847.317.777,258.88,416.89,512.05.847.178.43 2027E10,760.19.2410,798.910.16 Brent Thill * | Equity AnalystRia Naidu * | Equity AssociateSource: Jefferies, Company databookings ($mn).01002003004005006007001Q2Q The Long View: Workday, Inc.Investment Thesis / Where We Differ•Attractive valuation on a growth-adjusted basis relative to other high-growth SaaS comps.•Large,expanding Total Addressable Market(TAM);low attach ratesfor products within portfolio; international opportunity; and procurementopportunity are levers to drive durable, sustainable LT top-line growth.Base Case,$325, +19%•Company maintains growth profile (growingrevenues at low to mid teens in coming years)•Company gains momentum in markets outsideof HCM, particularly in Financials•$325 price target based on DCF with 16% and13% free cash flow growth in the out years(FY2028E and FY2029E)Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s):1) Data Security:WDAY manages highly sensitive customer data and protects itusing the latest security risk management practices and advanced systems. We expect security to be anongoing risk and expect WDAY to continue responding to the changing security landscape and emergingthreats.2)Employee Engagement, Diversity & Inclusion:We emphasize the importance of a global anddiverse workforce to maximize efficiency and promote inclusivity within the organization.Company Target(s):1)Annually source 100% renewable electricity by FY 2030.2)Reduce Scope 3business travel greenhouse gas emissions by 25% by FY 2026.3)70% of Workday’s suppliers will haveset science-based climate targets by FY 2026.Questions to Mgmt:1)What steps is management taking to reduce absolute Scope 3 business travelgreenhouse gas emissions?2)How does management track volunteer hours across their employeebase?Please see important disclosure information on pages 39 - 44 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$420, +54%•Company accelerates growth profile (growingrevenues at 20+% y/y in coming years)•Company gains significant traction in financials•$420 price target based on DCF with 23% and21% free cash flow growth in the out years(FY2028E and FY2029E) Downside Scenario,$200, -27%•Company growth slows(revenues grow at<10% y/y in coming years)•Company fails to gain traction with financialsproduct•$200 price target based on DCF with 9% and~6% free cash flow growth in the out years(FY2028E and FY2029E)Catalysts•Significant penetration in Financials,asdemonstrated by disclosed customer growth•Sustained hypergrowth in revenues and freecash flows•Pace of market share gains in core HCMproduct•Earnings. 2 Expert Call TakewaysWe hosted three calls with U.S. WDAY partners—two boutique firms (public checks) and one largeGSI (private check). See here for speaker details. Below are our key takeaways:1. Limited demand changes YTD, but cautiously optimistic through the rest of 2025.All partnersreported limited demand shifts YTD, though they acknowledged macro-related uncertaintiesaffecting pipeline build. Internal performance varied in 1Q: one boutique partner reported strongback-to-back quarters, another slightly missed, and the large GSI partner missed by LSD due to aslow start though noted momentum has improved since March and continued into May. Lookingahead, partners expressed cautious optimism, citing deal elongation, smaller renewal sizes, andheightened scrutiny—though, importantly, no deals have exited the pipeline.2. Public sector remains a substantial opportunity.Both boutique partners remain optimistic aboutWDAY's medium-term opportunity in the public sector, citing a large TAM across state and localgovernments and educational institutions running on outdated systems. Many of these entitiesare increasingly seeking full-suite platform solutions, where WDAY is well-positioned. One partnerflagged near-term concerns as federal funding is getting pulled for several public institutions,causing delays in decision-making for an already risk-averse vertical. However, they view the currentenvironment as a catalyst for IT modernization, which should ultimately benefit WDAY.3. Dynamic competitive landscape.WDAY maintains a strong platform advantage in the publicsector, though one partner noted increasing pressure from Ellucian (PE-owned) in higher education.In the private sector, the GSI partner observed rising competition from SAP and Oracle in mid-marketfinance, where both competi