啤酒经销商调查2025年及以后，压力增大，前景恶化

Kaumil Gajrawala * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8937 | kgajrawala@jefferies.comEdward Mundy, ACA ^ | Equity Analyst44 (0)20 7029 8476 | emundy@jefferies.com+1 (212) 778-8233 | kdevas@jefferies.comKaitlyn Korich, CFA * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8363 | kkorich@jefferies.com+1 (212) 708-2708 | nerni@jefferies.comKontee Siravongtanawadi * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8786 | ksiravongtanawadi@jefferies.comKEY STOCKS FEATURED INCLUDE:PRICE TARGET$260.00$194.00PRICE TARGET$194.00 ($196.00)Chart 1 - Distributors now expect US industry~-~-~-~-Volume Growth Outlook by Category-2025Source: JefData Proprietary Survey; Note: Includes allChart 2 - Mexican imports was the largestdriver of the lowered 2025 total beer volume-131bps-138bps-139bps-257bps-486bpsDomestic PremiumDomestic Super-PremiumSpirit-BasedCocktailsNon-Alcoholic BeerMexican Imports2025 Volume Growth Outlook-Spring '25 vs. Fall '24Source: JefData Proprietary Survey; Note: Includes allEquity ResearchMay 19, 2025 Keith Devas * | Equity AnalystNoah Erni * | Equity Associatedistributor respondents Tilray Portfolio Rationalization Ongoing:The portfolio is losing space. However, the craft categoryis being rationalized, Tilray is strategically cutting SKUs, and its distributor transition is ongoing.Craft category trends are unlikely to stabilize soon, but the portfolio could grow again as velocities& sales are improving, and marketing investments are increasing (lack of focus from ABI/TAP prior).Please see important disclosure information on pages 30 - 35 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Summary of ChangesCompanyBoston BeerSAMConstellation BrandsSTZPreviousMolson CoorsTAPTilrayTLRYAB InBevABI BB^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise noted.Price: Market close Nov 9, 2023Please see important disclosure information on pages 30 - 35 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. RatingPrice^HOLD$249.73HOLD$195.62HOLD$56.85BUY$0.50BUY€60.32 Consumption Improved Slightly This Spring, Though Distributors Still Expect ATough Year Ahead; Promotion Levels To Increase vs. 2024Chart 3 - Responses were mixed, but distributors noted a slight improvement inMarch/April depletions....0%46%25%25%4%Much betterBetterLittle changedWorseMuch worseHow would you characterize depletion trends in March/Aprilvs. January/February?Source: JefData Proprietary SurveyChart 4 - ...which is consistent with tracked channel trends, though still weak....-3%-2%-2%-2%-4%-4%-2%0%-1%-3%-1%-6%-4%-4%-4%-2%-2%-2%-4%-4%-2%0%-1%-3%-1%-6%-4%-4%-7%-6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%04/20/2405/18/2406/15/2407/13/2408/10/2409/07/2410/05/2411/02/2411/30/2412/28/2401/25/2502/22/2503/22/2504/19/25US Retail Volume Growth YoY-Total & Traditional BeerTotal BeerTraditional BeerSource: NielsenIQ, Jefferies; 4-week periods; "Traditional Beer" excludes FMBs, Ciders & SeltzersChart 5 - ...similar to domestic beer shipments..11.6M12.1M12.4M10.6M10.3M12.5MJanuaryFebruaryMarchDomestic Tax Paid Shipments20242025+0.7%-8.7%-14.9%Source: Beer Institute, JefferiesChart 6 - ABI noted better weather YoY helped April trends (along with Eastertiming), though our data suggests minimal change..1916141618171717051015202520242025202420252024202520242025JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilUS Bad Weather Days by Month-3-1+2FlatSource: Weather Source, JefferiesChart 7 - Respondents have become notably more negative on beer's 2025 shareof throat since the fall..24%55%21%3%55%42%BetterAbout the sameWorseWhat are your expectations for beer's share of throat in 2025(vs. spirits/wine) compared to the prior 10 years?Fall '24Spring '25Source: JefData Proprietary SurveyChart 8 - >50% expect a more competitive pricing/promotion environment thisspring..3%48%48%0%0%MUCH MORE COMPETITIVEMORE COMPETITIVELITTLE CHANGEDLESS COMPETITIVEMUCH LESS COMPETITIVEWhat is your expectation for industrypricing/promotion this Spring?I expect pricing/promotion to be...Source: JefData Proprietary SurveyPlease see important disclosure information on pages 30 - 35 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Beer Industry Volumes to Decline 2% in '25 and -1% Long-Term; Mexican ImportsOutlook Down Notably vs. Fall '24Chart 9 - Distributors now expect US industry volumes to decline -2% in 2025 (vs.-1% in fall '24) with growth led by non-alcoholic beer, offset by crafts, seltzers,domestics and ciders..~-~-~-~-~-~-Volume Growth Outlook by Category-2025Source: JefData Proprietary Survey; Note: Includes all distributor respondentsChart 10 - Mexican imports was the largest driver of the lowered 2025 total beervolume outlook..36bps3bps0bps-37bps-50bps-68bps-103bps-131bps-138bps-139bps-257bps-486bpsMalt-Based SeltzersEconomyFMBs (ex. HardSeltzers)CiderImports (ex-Mexican)Total BeerCraftsDomestic PremiumDomestic Super-PremiumSpirit-BasedCocktailsNon-Alcoholic BeerMexican Imports2025