雪flake潜力巨大-调查显示其增长并未消退

(415) 229-1559 | bthill@jefferies.com+1 (212) 284-2249 | byin@jefferies.comMaximilian Joseph * | Equity Associate(212) 778-8926 | mjoseph1@jefferies.comShengQi Lin * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8504 | slin4@jefferies.comKEY STOCKS FEATURED INCLUDE:PRICE TARGET$220.00$110.00PRICE TARGET$220.00 ($190.00)Equity ResearchMay 19, 2025 Brent Thill * | Equity AnalystBo Yin * | Equity Associate FY26. ESTC trades at 5x CY26E rev, which leaves room for a rerate if the company can deliver onsales execution to meet demand tailwinds from GenAI.Please see important disclosure information on pages 64 - 69 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Summary of ChangesCompanySnowflakeSNOWPreviousElasticESTC^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise noted.Please see important disclosure information on pages 64 - 69 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. RatingPrice^BUY$183.08BUY$92.32 SNOWMuch Potential-Proprietary Survey +PreviewMAY 2025SOFTWAREBrent Thill415-229-1559bthill@jefferies.com Brent Thill, Equity Analyst, (415) 229-1559, bthill@jefferies.comTable of ContentsISNOW Partner Survey1.F1Q Business Momentum and CY25 Expectations2.Competitive Positioning3.Survey DemographicsIIWhat We Heard–ESTC Partner ChecksIIIEarnings Previews (SNOW & ESTC)IVFinancials SECTIONISNOW Partner Survey F1Q Partner Survey: Stable Demand But Macro Headwind RemainsAhead ofSNOW’s F1Q earnings on May 21st, we surveyed 20 SNOW partners to gauge demand and other key debates around SNOW(AI traction, Iceberg Tables, data warehouse migration, competitive dynamics,etc). Our key takeaways:Overall pipelineremained robustin F1Q•55% of partners saw pipeline improvement in the last 3 months, with 15% noting double-digit growth, 30% of partners indicated flat q/qpipeline growth, while 15% indicated a sequential declinePartners expect ~1ppt of growth acceleration in CY25 (10.3%) vs CY24 (9.1%)•40%/35% of partners expect to see double-digit/single-digit growth in 2025, while 35%/30% of partners reported double-digit/single-digitgrowth in 2024Expected AI growth contributions in CY25 remain intact at 6 ppts•Partners expect AI initiatives on average to contribute 5.8 ppts of growth in CY25 and data engineering initiatives to contribute 6.0 ppts•Partners continue to rank AI/ML as the top driver for sales opportunities within the next yearLimited impact from macro headwinds so far, though concerns are starting to grow•Macro uncertainty had (on average)a~2pt headwind on F1Q pipelines and partner practice revenues relatedto SNOW•Partners expect ~3pt negative impact onSNOWpractice growth amid macro backdrop in 2025•On an individual basis, 40% of partners expect macro headwinds to get incrementally worse throughout the year85% of partners either hit or exceeded their plans in F1Q•35% of partners were above plan while 50% were at plan. 15% of partners cited underperformance, aslight uptick from 10% in our F4Qsurvey12345 4 SUBSECTION 1F1Q Business Momentum& CY25 Expectations Vast Majority of Partners Hit Their Plans in F1QBrent Thill, Equity Analyst, (415) 229-1559, bthill@jefferies.comOver the past 3 months, how has your overall Snowflake related business performed?85% of partners either hit or exceeded their plans in F1Q, a marginal decrease from 90% inourF4Q survey. 35% were aboveplan, in-line with last quarter survey results, while 50% were at plan vs. 55% in F4Q. 15% of partners cited underperformance,a slight uptick from 10% inourF4Qsurvey.5%10%50%25%5%0%10%55%15%11-20% below plan1-10% below planAt plan1-10% above plan11-20% aboveF1Q SurveyF4Q Survey Source: Jefferies Proprietary Survey (n=20)5%15%5%plan21-30% aboveplan 5%5%5%0%0%20%Declined 21-30%Declined 11-20%Declined 1-10%Solid Pipeline Demand in F1QBrent Thill, Equity Analyst, (415) 229-1559, bthill@jefferies.comHas your Snowflake pipeline changed inthe last three months whencompared to the three months priortothat, and by how much?Similar toour F4Q survey, 55% of partnersin our F1Q surveyreported a q/q improvement in their SNOW pipelines.Withinthat, 15% indicated >11% pipeline improvement, notably lower than 30% in F4Q. 40%or partnersindicated <10%improvement in F1Qvs25% from ourF4Qsurvey, while30% noted flatq/q pipelinegrowth vs 25% in F4Q. 30%40%10%5%25%25%25%5%FlatImproved 1-10%Improved 11-20%Improved 21-30%F1Q SurveyF4Q SurveySource: Jefferies Proprietary Survey (n=20) Majority of Partners Expect Positive Growth in 2025Brent Thill, Equity Analyst, (415) 229-1559, bthill@jefferies.com40%/35% of partners expect to see double-digit/single-digit growth in 2025,which compares to 40%/30% in our F4Qsurveyresults. 15%of partnersexpect flatpracticegrowthin 2025vs 20%of partners in our F4Q survey,and10% of partnersexpectamodestdecline (<10%) in2025.What are your growth expectations for your overall Snowflake practice in2025?10%15%35%10%15%10%10%20%30%30%5%Dec