帝亚吉欧（DGE）：2025年第三季度业绩对现金的信心

Edward Mundy, ACA * | Equity Analyst44 (0)20 7029 8476 | emundy@jefferies.comAndrei Andon-Ionita, CFA * | Equity Analyst+44 (0) 207548-4173 | aandon-ionita@jefferies.com2,152.00p^2,500.00p | +16%2,827p - 1,908pFLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD)85.4% | 124.57£53.5B | $70.9BDGE LN^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwiseDEO US$115.05^$131.00 | +14%JEF vs CONS20252026+1%-1%-1%-4%Q4FY-159.20159.40Exhibit 1 - We believe EBIT growth >2% in F26is required to deliver $3bn FCFF26 $3bn Cash Flow Sensitivity - EBIT growth5.0%4.5%4.0%2,8882,9883,0882,9483,0483,1483,0083,1083,2083,0683,1683,2683,1283,2283,328Equity ResearchMay 19, 2025 2024A2025E20,269.020,264.020,494.020,329.420,118.020,652.0183.20161.50NMNM 2026E2027E21,114.021,585.0172.00185.50NMNM and capex.Capex as a %age of sales6.5%6.0%5.5%02,5882,6882,78812,6482,7482,84822,7082,8082,90832,7682,8682,96842,8282,9283,028Org EBITgrowthSource: Jefferies research The Long View: DiageoInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•Companies do not change overnight; however, we think that Diageo willstart to look different as confidence in spirits growth increases and undera new, heavyweight CFO, where we see a renewed focus on growth, profitand cash.•25 should be a trough year with recovery from F26 onwards.•Likely provision of F27-29 financial framework will give increasedconfidence in Diageo's compounding abilitiesBase Case,2500p, +16%•F25E org sales/EBIT+1.1%-1%,rising to+1.8%/2.3% in F26E•Med-term LSD growth in N America andEurope, MSD-HSD growth in EMs•DCF-driven PT 2,500pSustainability MattersTop Material ESG Issue(s): Responsible Drinking.The irresponsible consumption of alcoholicbeverages can lead to many negative social impacts, which could lead to higher taxes, increasedregulation, reputational harm, and consumer backlash against alcohol. International regulators arecalling for spirits companies to take a more active role to discourage heavy episodic drinking.Company Target(s):2030 goals 1) Roll out DRINKiQ in every market, scale up SMASHED/UNITARpartnerships. 2) 50% women in leadership by 2030, 45% ethnic minorities. 3) Training-1.5m throughDiageo Bar Academy. 4) Reduce water use by 40% in water-stressed areas and 30% elsewhere. 5)Net-zero scope 1 & 2 by 2030, 50% reduction in scope 3, 100% renewable electricity. 5) Zero waste indirect ops, 100% recyclable packaging, and 10% reduction in packaging weight.Questionsto Management:1)How is ESG integrated into your strategy/managementcompensation? 2) What is the risk that alcohol follows the route of tobacco from a consumer andregulatory perspective? 3) What is the risk of plain packaging for your business?ESG Integration Sector Report- herePlease see important disclosure information on pages 19 - 24 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,3200p, +49%•Med-term org sales 6% with benefits fromindustry recovery and DGE outperformance•Med-term org EBIT with benefits from positiveoperating leverage and cost efficiencies•We see an upside scenario PT of 3,200pbased on faster growth and stronger margindelivery. Downside Scenario,1600p, -26%•Slower end-consumption growth recoveryand a prolonged period of recession/changedconsumer habits in the on-trade•Adverse FX, macro, regulatory risk•A prolonged slowdown in US spirits growth(c45% group profits)•Failure to achieve med term marginprogression•Managementpursueacquisitions•Compression of sector valuations and risingUS 10yr yield•Should the above occur, we see a PT of 1,600p value-destructive2 What's changed?Despite the stronger than anticipated 3Q, our organic estimates are unchanged. In our reporthere, we had already cut our forecasts to incorporate downside from tariffs and a double dipon growth. We expect consensus to follow, which could drive -MSD downgrades. If the macroenvironment turns out to be less bad, or there are u-turns on tariffs, this could drive a change insentiment quickly. Cal 2026 PE DGE 17x vs staples 17x. PT unchanged.What does this imply for 4Q?Given the 400bps boost to 3Q from inventory phasing, the reiteration of guidance would implya sharp contraction in 4Q, worth c.400bps. Given the desire to start F26 with clean inventories,our working assumption is that the inventory unwind could be greater than -400bps. We wouldalso highlight a tougher basis of comparison in 4Q24 vs 3Q24 however the unchanged guidancewould point to an element of conservatism, in our view, after the strong 9M performance..Reported net sales - $mNorth AmericaEuropeAsia PacificLatin America & CaribbeanAfricaCorporateDIAGEO totalOrganic volume growth - %DIAGEO totalOrganic net sales growth - %North AmericaEuropeAsia PacificLatin America & CaribbeanAfricaDIAGEO totalF25 Guidance - ReiteratedKey areas of guidance are unchanged for F25.Top-line:The company expects to deliver a sequential improvement in organic net sales growthin 2H25.Operating profit:The company expects slight org EBIT decline in 2H25, bro