巴拉特电子：息税折旧摊销前利润超出50%；长期能见度提升

2025A2026E236,580279,45567,675.978,433.552,902.962,518.27.248.55FY22FY23FY24FY25534,340575,700605,000759,340716,500153,138176,462201,694236,580279,4558.915.214.317.333,09240,47549,98267,67621.622.924.828.623,48930,06739,68752,9033.24.15.47.215.128.032.033.329.132.937.940.920.623.526.829.6113.388.567.050.322.219.616.513.580.365.652.639.2 2027E334,96296,461.676,803.810.51FY26EFY27E698,594334,96218.119.978,43496,46228.128.862,51876,8048.610.518.222.939.240.829.330.942.634.611.610.032.926.9 Lavina Quadros * | Equity Analyst91 22 4224 6116 | lquadros@jefferies.comShirom Kapur * | Equity Associate+91 22 4224 6141 | skapur1@jefferies.comRecent research:Orders–NearopportunisticIndustrials : Capex Deep Dive: Piecing ItTogetherBharat Electronics: Analyst Call Takeaway—Confident on OutlookBharat Electronics: Pouring orders; Rs187bn of 200 doneBharatElectronics:Domestic DefenceProcurement to be Up 18% YoY in FY24EBudget; FY24 Follow-through of FY22-23Capex FocusExhibit 2 - BEL: 1 yr forward PE chart.05101520253035404550-Re-Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Jefferies estimates termtrigger;beMoD--- The Long View: Bharat ElectronicsInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•Market leader in India in defence electronics.•Current order book 3x FY25 revenue.•Earnings delivery on existing order book with clarity on margin trajectory,with each passing result helping the stock move higher from currentlevels.Base Case,INR420, +16%•Visible pipeline of Rs930 bn giving enoughvisibility for medium-term revenues.•Rising indigenization helps BEL on order flowgrowth.•FY27E EPS: Rs10.5, Target PE multiple: 40xFY27E, PT Rs420.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issues:1) Materials Sourcing -BEL has established a rigorous mechanism for supplierselection and inclusion in the company’s vendor Directory, with the goal of sustainable sourcingand long-term mutual benefit.2) Energy Management -BEL has taken up sustainable developmentprojects in the areas of energy-efficient retrofitting — LED lights, reducing carbon footprint, and waterfootprint.3) Employee Health & Safety -Industrial operations can be inherently dangerous, andBharat electronics has made people, health, and safety a priority, often part of the ESG strategy.Company Targets:1) Actively involved in conserving natural resources such as rainwater harvesting,energy conservation, and reduction of waste. 2) Increase the use of electrical energy wheeling fromwind energy power.Questions for Management:1) What are your commitments to making the environment green? 2)What would be the margin improvement post using sustainable inputs? 3) Are any audits beingundertaken at manufacturing facilities/campuses to ensure lower energy utilisation?ESG Sector Integration: India Cap GoodsPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,INR600, +65%•Defence orders move at a faster pace withmore proposals being cleared and tendersbeing floated in the near future.•Make in India program gains pace with thruston a higher proportion of domestic ordersbeing placed.•FY27E EPS: Rs12, Target PE multiple: 50xFY27E, PT Rs600. Downside Scenario,INR240, -34%•Defencespendingfacesroadblocks and ordering process slows down.•Margin pressure on execution due to projects'proportion moving higher than expected.•FY27E EPS: Rs8, Target PE multiple: 30xFY27E, PT Rs240.Catalysts•BEL receiving orders at a fast pace andrevenue CAGR resuming double-digit growth•ROE rise to previous levels along with areduction in debtor and inventory days regulatory2 Exhibit 3 - Quarterly Snapshot.(Rs mn)SalesEBITDAEBITDA margin (%)Adjusted PATSource: Company data, Jefferies estimatesExhibit 4 - Quarterly Income Statement.(Rs mn)Income from operationsExpenditureEBITDAEBITDA margin (%)Other incomeInterestDepreciationExtraordinary itemsPBTTaxTax rate %Reported PATAdjusted PATSource: Company data, JefferiesExhibit 5 - Expenditure breakup.(Rs mn)Raw materials + contract% of salesPurchase of traded goods% of salesStaff cost% of salesOther expenses% of salesTotalSource: Company data, JefferiesExhibit 6 - Visible 3-yr order flow pipeline.OrderQRSAM missilesLRSAM missilesAkash missilesBase defence ordersSDR - ArmyNext Gen Corvette SubsytemsBase non-defence ordersNight vision devicesSDR - NavyOverallSource: Company data, Jefferies estimatesExhibit 7 - Company's ROE to stay above 20%+ levels going forward.23181833272601020304050FY09FY10%Source: Company data, Jefferies estimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 8 - BEL's share has risen as a proportion of India's capital spend driven by indigenization push.9.68.5-5001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000FY09FY10Rs BnSource: Union Budget, Company data, Jefferies estimatesExhibit 9 - Order book and pipeline supports our 18% FY25-30E revenue CAGR.9195