回归之路可能更长-下调至持有评级

2024A2025E2026E2027E5.345.075.726.945.345.196.027.23987.3979.71,026.91,142.6987.31,001.91,103.51,237.8 Blayne Curtis * | Equity Analyst(212) 336-7493 | bcurtis@jefferies.comEzra Weener * | Equity Associate(917) 344-1860 | eweener@jefferies.comCrawford Clarke, CFA * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 336-7399 | cclarke2@jefferies.comAlex Fernandez * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8731 | afernandez1@jefferies.com The Long View: OntoInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•Secular trends in connectivity, big data, AI, and net zero position ONTO’smetrology tools to benefit as smaller transistors require more processsteps, ultimately increasing ASPs and margins.•Estimated 10x increase in number of transistors per package (2022-2030),resulting in secular demand for ONTO’s lithography and metrology toolsalong with test cards.•Potential beneficiary of US semiconductor onshoring trends as customerslook to move supply chains to the US.Base Case,$110, +10%•Steady step-up from bottom of high-marginadvanced nodes sales.•Packaging inspection and optical metrologybenefitfrom new technology trends likeAdvancedCMOS,Power Technologies,andPanel Level Packaging.•Return to long-term operating margin targetof 31-32% ($1B revenue) through revenue andmanufacturing leverage.•Price Target: $110implies 16x our CY27E EPSof $6.94.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue: Product Design & Lifecycle:ONTO's metrology tools are aimed at increasingefficiency and yield in semiconductor manufacturing processes, thereby reducing overall environmentalfootprint, energy consumption, use of water, materials, chemicals, and waste generation.Company Targets:ONTO targets to lower its carbon footprint by 30% by the end of 2025 (from 2020)and transition to 30% renewable energy by the end of 2025. It also targets a 30% reduction in freshwateruse by the end of 2025 and use an increasing amount of recycled water.Questions for Management: 1)Will the next generation of products themselves increase sustainabilityor further contribute to sustainability through efficiency and yield?2)Have you set benchmarks/targetsfor customers and suppliers to monitor progress in achieving ESG targets?Please see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$140, +39%•Upside to revenue growth as ONTO gainsmarketshare in metrology and packaginginspection while recovering in advanced nodesales.•Outperforming margins as ONTO achievesscale-based leverage and grows its customerbase•Benefits from semiconductor nationalizationtrends and gains new business it would likelynot otherwise.•Price Target: $140implies 18x our CY27E EPSof $8.00. Downside Scenario,$85, -15%•Slower industry-wide inventory correctionimpacting margins.•Advanced node sales continue to fall furthernegatively impacting margins.•Weak demand environment impacts revenueand ultimately margins as ONTO would notachieve scale-based leverage.•Price Target: $85implies 15x our CY27E EPS of$5.50.Catalysts•Transistors per package continue to increaseand thus requiring more complex lithographyand metrology tools.•Capex increases at ONTO’s largest customerssuch as TSMC and Samsung. 2 HBM Digestion Likely Lasts Through 2026:Consistent with messaging into the quarter, HBM isexpected to be down 40% Y/Y in 2025. This comes as Samsung bought half of the tools sold lastyear, despite struggling to qualify. This is the base case with the assumption that Samsung does notqualify with any meaningful volumes in 2025. Looking into 2026, the assumption is that Samsungwill qualify and begin to digest tools (the tools sold can be used for HBM3 or HBM4), which shouldtake 2-4 quarters. While Samsung digests tools, it is expected that Hynix and Micron will also pausebuying. While the timing and extent are still up for discussion, we believe this suggests that HBMcould see another year of digestion in 2026, potentially worse than 2025. Increasing stack heightsshould be a positive for content, but an increase from 8Hi to 12Hi results in <50% increase in content,leading to lower content per wafer. ONTO expects to be able to increase content by taking sharein 3D metrology (where CAMT currently dominates), but taking share from a strong incumbent isgenerally not easy.Advanced Nodes the Bright Spot Led by DRAM:The main positive update in the quarter was stronggrowth in Advanced Nodes with the year expected to end closer to the $300M mark. The growthis driven largely by two DRAM customers building capacity alongside TSMC and Rapidus spendingon GAA. DRAM is expected to make up ~40%, GAA ~35% and NAND the rest. Advanced Nodes isexpected to have been strongest in Q1, followed by a slightly lower Q2 (like ~$80M) with a largepause in Q3 (~$40M), with Q4 making up the difference to get to ~$300M for the year ($80M). Thebig question will be the ability to grow into 2026 with GAA likely at peak run rate and DRAM a toughcomp for DRAM.Key Modelin