GMR机场2025年第四季度初步分析：强劲的EBITDA表现

April:AERA recently issued Final Tariff Order forQ4FY25Q4FY24% YoY Chg28,63324,46817.018,51416,30113.610,1198,16723.935.333.4196bps1,1081,237(10.4)11,2279,40419.49,5528,23016.14,9134,04821.4(3,237)(2,874)NM568192196.1(2,905)(2,059)NM(2,376)(1,210)NM(3,277)(2,217)NM(0.4)(0.2)NM Q3FY25% Chg QoQ26,5327.916,61511.49,9172.037.4-204bps95016.710,8673.38,29115.24,7872.6(2,212)NM44228.61,432NM2,668NM(1,418)NM0.4NM Prateek Kumar * | Equity Analyst91 22 4224 6154 | prateek.kumar@jefferies.comGraham Hunt, CFA ^ | Equity Analyst44 (0)20 7548 4251 | ghunt@jefferies.com We would like to thank Shubham Shete, employee of Evalueserve Inc., for providing research support services to our preparation of this report.Company DescriptionGMR AirportsGMR Group entered the airports space in the early 2000s and is today amongst the top 3 private airport operators globally. Presently, the groupoperates (1) Delhi International Airport, (2) Hyderabad International Airport, and (3) Manohar International Airport, Goa. The Delhi and HyderabadAirports are two of the largest airports of the country, with GMR commanding ~27% market share in overall traffic.Company Valuation/RisksGMR AirportsWe value GMRAIRPO at Rs92 (valuing Airport Subs at 25x FY30 EBITDA, discounted @ 12.5% for 4 yrs). Downside Risks: (1) Any adverseregulatory change impacting Airport tariff and probability; (2) Slowdown in Air passenger traffic; (3) Slowdown in macro, impacting consumerspending at the AirportFraport AGWe value Fraport on a sum-of-the-parts basis. Upside risks include 1) a stronger passenger recovery driven by corporate travel as fears of aneconomic recession ease and 2) better results than expected for Fraport's Antalya JV, driven by increased tourism to Turkey. Downside risksinclude 1) increased competition and capacity from other lower-fee German airports, attracting traffic volumes away from Frankfurt and 2)slowing industrial output in Germany negatively impacting cargo volumes and profitability for airlines.Analyst Certification:I, Prateek Kumar, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.I, Graham Hunt, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies)and subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendationsor views expressed in this research report.Registration of non-US analysts:Prateek Kumar is employed by Jefferies India Private Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore maynot be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held bya research analyst.Registration of non-US analysts:Graham Hunt, CFA is employed by Jefferies International Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore maynot be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held bya research analyst.As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receivescompensation based in part on the overall performance of the firm, including investment banking income. We seek to update our research as appropriate,but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Aside from certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports arepublished at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgement.Investment Recommendation Record(Article 3(1)e and Article 7 of MAR)Recommendation PublishedRecommendation DistributedCompany Specific DisclosuresExplanation of Jefferies RatingsBuy - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of 15% or more within a 12-month period.Hold - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of plus 15% or minus 10% within a 12-month period.Underperform - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of minus 10% or less within a 12-month period.The expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) for Buy rated securities with an average security price consistently below $10 is 20% or morewithin a 12-month period as these comp