怡和控股（JM SP）：买入：进展良好的迹象

Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation LimitedView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comHSBC Global Research Podcasts| Listen to our insightsMAINTAIN BUYTARGET PRICE(USD)PREVIOUS TARGET(USD)51.2046.20SHARE PRICE(USD)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE45.03+13.7%(as of23 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(USDm)13,287Free floatMarket cap (USDm)13,287BBG3m ADTV (USDm)12RICFINANCIALS AND RATIOS(USD)Year to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026eHSBC EPS5.075.666.09HSBC EPS (prev)5.075.766.03Change (%)0.0-1.81.0Consensus EPS4.945.515.96PE (x)8.97.87.5Dividend yield (%)5.05.15.3EV/EBITDA (x)-0.4-0.7-0.8ROE (%)5.25.75.852-WEEK PRICE(USD)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesRaymond Liu*, CFAAnalyst, Asia Real Estate and ConglomeratesThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedraymond.w.m.liu@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6743Rahul Bhatia*, CFAAnalyst, ASEAN Conglomerates and IndustrialsThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited,Singapore Branchrahul1.bhatia@hsbc.com.sg+65 6658 0623Tong Yu*AssociateGuangzhou* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesIndustrial ConglomerateSingapore05/2411/24Target price: 51.20High: 48.60 Low: 34.29 Current: 45.03 ◆◆◆ Find out more67%JM SPJARD.SI12/2027e6.176.160.26.127.35.6-1.05.632.0043.0054.00 2Financial statementsYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eProfit & loss summary(USDm)Revenue35,77935,99436,85237,979EBITDA3,3405,9136,0416,114Depreciation & amortisation-2,174-2,158-2,166-2,168Operating profit/EBIT1,1663,7553,8753,946Net interest-526-555-609-623PBT1,4314,4754,8095,061HSBC PBT3,6444,4754,8095,061Taxation-876-778-841-866Net profit-4681,6401,7661,791HSBC net profit1,4711,6401,7661,791Cash flow summary(USDm)Cash flow from operations4,9996,4664,9084,929Capex-2,285-2,756-2,764-2,772Cash flow from investment-971-3,032-3,306-3,510Dividends-653-667-696-725Change in net debt-725-1,0318171,030FCF equity3,8814,7103,1443,157Balance sheet summary(USDm)Intangible fixedassets2,1162,1722,2212,263Tangible fixed assets39,15039,39039,63539,890Current assets19,81121,17922,10621,929Cash & others4,8477,4368,0197,488Total assets86,77989,95592,96195,069Operating liabilities16,79316,79316,79316,793Gross debt15,88817,44618,84619,346Net debt11,04110,01010,82711,858Shareholders' funds27,88029,49831,10432,712Invested capital39,43738,51339,15139,801Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eY-o-y % changeRevenue-0.70.62.43.1EBITDA-26.077.02.21.2Operating profit-52.1222.03.21.8PBT-56.7212.87.45.3HSBC EPS-11.411.57.71.4Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)0.90.90.91.0ROIC1.18.08.28.3ROE5.25.75.85.6ROA1.04.95.15.3EBITDA margin9.316.416.416.1Operating profit margin3.310.410.510.4EBITDA/net interest (x)6.310.79.99.8Net debt/equity20.718.219.120.4Net debt/EBITDA (x)3.31.71.81.9CF fromoperations/net debt45.364.645.341.6Per share data(USD)EPS Rep (diluted)-1.615.666.096.17HSBC EPS (diluted)5.075.666.096.17DPS2.252.302.402.50Book value96.14101.72107.26112.80Valuation dataYear toPE*PBFCF yield (%)Dividend yield (%)* Based on HSBC EPS (diluted)ESG metricsEnvironmental IndicatorsGHG emission intensityEnergy intensityCO2reduction policySocial IndicatorsEmployee costs as % of revenuesEmployee turnover (%)Diversity policySource: Company data, HSBC*GHG intensity and energy intensity are measuredin kg and kWhrespectivelyagainst revenuein USD ‘000sIssuer informationShare price(USD)Target price(USD)RIC(Equity)Bloomberg (Equity)Market cap(USDm)Price relativeSource: HSBCNote:Priced at close of 23 May 202525.0035.0045.0055.0065.0075.00Financials & valuation:Jardine Matheson Holding 6Valuation and risksJardineMathesonJM SPCurrent price:USD45.03Target price:USD51.20Up/downside:+13.7%BuyJardine Matheson–sum-of-the-parts valuationCompanyDFI RetailHongkong LandJardine Cycle & Carriage(incl. Astra)Jardine PacificMandarin OrientalZhongshengSub-totalNet (debt)/cash attrib. to JMTotalShare count (m)Target discount (%)Fair value (USD/sh)Share price (USD/sh)Upside/(downside)Source: Bloomberg, HSBC estimates. Note: Priced as of23May2025.*Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations RisksDownside risks:Aworse-than-expected rental correctionin Hong Kong’s office market; more intense competitionfor JM’s Indonesian auto business; and a rapiddepreciation of the IDR against the USD.Raymond Liu*, CFA| raymond.w.m.liu@hsbc.com.hk | +852 2996 6743Valuation toComments8.3Based on HSBC target price of USD2.32/sh;DFI Retail (DFI SP, USD2.70, Hold)40.5Based on HSBC NAV estimate of USD10.00/sh22.5Based onHSBC target price of SGD25.20/sh5.7Based on PE multiples of 10x7.6Based on 2025e EV/EBITDA multiples of 14x2.7HSBC target price ofHKD12.00/shZhongsheng (881 HK, HKD12.62, Reduce)NAV discount ValuationWe maintain our Buy rating on the stock witharevisedtarget priceofUSD51.20 (fromUSD46.20), based on an unchangedconglomerate discount of 26%, which is 0.75 SD b