NetLink NBN信托（NETLINK SP）：买入稳定的现金流和强劲的股息收益率

Issuer of report:HSBC Securities and CapitalMarkets (India) Private LimitedView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comHSBC Global Research Podcasts| Listen to our insightsMAINTAIN BUYTARGET PRICE(SGD)PREVIOUS TARGET(SGD)1.021.02SHARE PRICE(SGD)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE0.91+11.6%(as of19 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(SGDm)3,546Free floatMarket cap (USDm)2,739BBG3m ADTV (USDm)3RICFINANCIALS AND RATIOS(SGD)Year to03/2025a03/2026e03/2027eHSBC EPS0.020.03HSBC EPS (prev)0.030.03Change (%)-11.9Consensus EPS0.030.03PE (x)37.236.0Dividend yield (%)5.96.0EV/EBITDA (x)14.814.6ROE (%)3.94.252-WEEK PRICE(SGD)Source:RefinitivIBES, HSBC estimatesRishabh Dhancholia*Analyst, TMTHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limitedrishabh.dhancholia@hsbc.co.in+91 80 30012841Piyush Choudhary*, CFAHead of Asia TelecomsThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited,Singapore Branchpiyush.choudhary@hsbc.com.sg+65 6658 0607Abhishek JhanwarAssociateBangalore* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesDiversifiedTelecommunicationsSingapore05/2411/24Target price: 1.02High: 0.94 Low: 0.82 Current: 0.91 ◆◆◆ Find out more 2Financial statementsYear to03/2025a03/2026e03/2027e03/2028eProfit & loss summary(SGDm)Revenue407413420426EBITDA288294298304Depreciation & amortisation-178-181-182-175Operating profit/EBIT111113116128Net interest-18-18-19-20PBT929598109HSBC PBT929598109Taxation3331Net profit9598101110HSBC net profit9598101110Cash flowsummary(SGDm)Cash flow from operations259291300303Capex-144-107-84-85Cash flow from investment-144-107-84-85Dividends-208-209-211-215Change in net debt96441317FCF equity115184216218Balance sheet summary(SGDm)Intangible fixed assets876875874873Tangible fixed assets2,6502,5772,4802,390Current assets270277292308Cash & others178184202218Total assets3,8623,7953,7123,637Operating liabilities133129129129Gross debt8879379691,001Net debt710753767784Shareholders' funds2,3942,2812,1672,059Invested capital3,1033,0342,9342,843Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to03/2025a03/2026e03/2027e03/2028eY-o-y % changeRevenue-1.01.61.61.5EBITDA-1.12.11.41.8Operating profit-6.62.62.310.6PBT-8.93.12.711.3HSBC EPS-7.63.32.19.1Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)0.10.10.10.1ROIC3.73.13.23.7ROE3.94.24.55.2ROA3.13.13.23.5EBITDA margin70.871.271.071.2Operating profit margin27.227.427.630.1EBITDA/net interest (x)15.615.916.115.4Net debt/equity29.633.035.438.1Net debt/EBITDA (x)2.52.62.62.6CF from operations/net debt36.538.639.138.6Per share data(SGD)EPS Rep (diluted)0.020.030.030.03HSBC EPS (diluted)0.020.030.030.03DPS0.050.050.060.06Book value0.610.590.560.53Financials & valuation:NetLink NBN Trust Connections revenue to getback to growth from FY26eas lower MRC is fullyreflected in FY25 baseResidential connection andNBAP segment to driverevenue growthCapexintensity to decline y-o-y in FY26 as central officeconstruction is completedWeexpect DPU to grow toSGD5.58cents by FY28eCompany’s leverage remainslowat 2.6x Net Debt/EBITDAin FY26e, thus providingample headroom for capexand dividend growth 4NetLink’sshare priceperformance has a stronginverse relation with interestrates Key changes to forecastsIn this report we incorporate andreflectthecompany’sreported financials for FY25. We cut ourEBITDA estimates by 1-2% due to lower-than-expected margins. Our net income estimates aredown 12-14% for FY26e-27e, primarily on account of higher depreciation. Our marginally lowerEBITDA is offset as we roll forward our valuation base. Hence, we maintain our DCF-based TPof SGD1.02, implying an upside of c12%.With this report we introduce our FY28estimates.9.HSBCe vs prior estimatesSGD mHSBCeRevenueEBITDANet IncomeHSBC previous estimatesRevenueEBITDANet IncomeHSBC vs. previousRevenueEBITDANet IncomeSource: HSBC estimates FY26eFY27eFY28e41342042629429830498101110419425301305112117-1%-1%-2%-2%-12%-14% Valuation and risksValuation and risksNetLink NBN TrustNETLINK SPCurrent price:SGD0.91Target price:SGD1.02Upside:11.6%BuyPricedat19May 2025Source: HSBC estimates Risksto our viewDownside risks◆Slower-than-expected growth inconnectionsrevenue◆Slower-than-expected growth inotherrevenues,like installation, ancillary and other revenue◆Higher-than-expected capex◆Higher-than-expected finance cost◆Any regulatory change causing an adverse impacton earnings ValuationMethodology:Discounted cash flow (FCFF).Assumptions:WACC at 5.9%,cost ofequity at 6.5%, basedon arisk-free rate of 3.75%, equity risk premium of 4.25%, betaof 0.65.Target debt-to-capital ratio of 17% and cost of debt of3.5% (allassumptions unchanged).Our unchanged target price of SGD1.02 implies c12% upsideand wereiterate our Buy rating on the stock, as the company’sstable cash flow should be able to supportsteadyandattractivedividends. 5 6Disclosure appendixAnalyst CertificationThe following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including a