: 全球半导体资本设备：: 全球半导体设备：扭转潮流

Global Semiconductor Equipment: Turning the Tide We further lift our 2025 WFE to $111bn (+2% YoY) from $108bn (Flat YoY). We alsoraise 2026 WFE to $119bn (+7% YoY) from $115bn.Our 2025 WFE forecast is liftedby $2bn, to reflect stronger-than-expect China spending as well as some better outlook forNAND, offset a little by a bit weaker spending outlook from Intel. China WFE is forecastedto be down -13% (prior -20%) in 2025, while non-China is up +14% (prior +15%). We liftour 2026 WFE outlook mainly from better China WFE assumptions, offset by slightly softer David Dai, CFA+852 2918 5704david.dai@bernsteinsg.com Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Qingyuan Lin, Ph.D.+852 2123 2654qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com The growth is led by China foundry and NAND. By application, the biggest raise is$2.7bn infoundryin 2025 and $4bn in 2026, mostly from China foundry. We now forecastChina foundry WFE -16% YoY in 2025 (prior -25%) driven by acceleration in foundrycapacity expansion post DeepSeek. GlobalNANDWFE is also raised by $0.4bn to grow51% YoY in 2025, followed by another 59% in 2026. Conversely, we cut ourlogicWFEoutlook by $1.1bn to -24% (prior -18%) in 2025, and another $0.9bn in 2026, to reflect Mark Li+852 2123 2645mark.li@bernsteinsg.com Juho Hwang+852 2123 2632juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com Our LRCX and AMAT models are already consistent with our WFE updates, hencewe leave our estimates and target prices unchanged.We like both stocks but lean a bitmore toward LRCX; while both have exposure to key leading edge inflections (GAA, HBM,packaging etc) Lam has more exposure to the NAND upgrade cycle; however AMAT Chinamix is lower (~22% ex-display) and it is cheaper so also looks attractive to us. We maintain Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com We prefer Tokyo Electron / Kokusai (Outperform) for the strength in China WFEand NAND upgrades.We expect TEL to outperform WFE with share gain and upside fromback-end products (prober/bonder), and margin outlook is stable despite weaker Chinacontribution. We’re also positive on Kokusai given our view of NAND capex recovery andtheir high NAND exposure. Screen top line expectations have been reset, but margin still Zheng Cui+852 2123 2694zheng.cui@bernsteinsg.com For Chinese semicap, we maintain Outperform on NAURA, AMEC, and Piotech asthey continue to gain share in China driven by domestic substitution.DeepSeekaccelerated China’s capex spending on AI, bring upside to the advanced logic capacityexpansion; on the other hand, we continue to observe stronger than expected matured logiccapacity expansion, we believe this could bring upside to the new orders local vendors can BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS DISCO: Outperform, PT=¥41,300.DISCO is the dominant supplier of grinders and dicers with ~85% market share. Thegrowing usage of dicers/grinders driven by advanced packaging is sustainable, especially for HBM and CoWoS in the near term,and hybrid bonding for HBM/3D stacking NAND/backside power delivery network in the mid term. Tokyo Electron: Outperform, PT=¥33,800.TEL is the #4 SPE supplier globally and the biggest Japanese SPE supplier withmajor presence in 6 product segments. It is expected to gain share and expand margins with competitive pricing after yendepreciation. New cryogenic etching product presents 6-9% revenue upside in FY27/3. Kokusai: Outperform, PT=¥3,640.00. Kokusai is the leader in batch ALD (atomic level deposition), which should see moreadoption in advanced nodes especially GAA (gate-all-around). However, the company’s guidance of 22% revenue CAGR is toohigh in our view and hinges on mature node growth, of which we are doubtful. The biggest use of batch ALD is in NAND, for Advantest: Market-Perform, PT=¥7,060.00. Advantest is the biggest beneficiary of AI testing with testing intensity for HBMand Nvidia Blackwell 5x that of conventional DRAM and Hopper, respectively. As the dominant supplier for HBM tester (~65%)and AI GPU (100% share), Advantest is able to lift the ASP and margin with product migration, especially with HBM4 in 2025. Screen: Market-Perform, PT=¥11,300.Leading supplier in cleaning equipment with the lowest valuation in our coverage,but also the one with the least specific growth drivers. Cleaning intensity is not increasing, and the market is competitive withboth global rivals (TEL, Lam) and Chinese (ACMR, Naura). Declining China revenue contribution presents margin downside risk. Lasertec: Underperform, PT=¥10,500.As major supplier for mask inspection (~50% share) and sole supplier for actinicinspection, Lasertec delivered phenomenal growth in the past, but we anticipate the revenue growth to decelerate to 5% in thenext 3 years as ACTIS enters its 5thyear. KLA’s potential launch of actinic inspection presents a major threat. AMAT (Outperform, $210.00):We maintain a positive view on secular WFE growth and se